Chicago @ Toronto
Tip-off 4:30 PM PT · Draft Kings lines · 5,000 sims · win chance for TOR
NBA backtest: the books beat this sim on sides and totals; props run slightly above base rates. Details
How the sim saw it
The sim has Toronto winning 71.8% of 5,000 games, against 79% from the books. The median score is Toronto 125, Chicago 117. In the most typical game: Toronto leads by as many as 27 in the first half; Toronto leads 72-45 at the break. Toronto's 10-0 run in the 2nd quarter is the biggest swing. Poeltl puts Toronto ahead for good with 10:07 left in the 1st. Giddey finds Buzelis 3 times. Leonard goes 10 of 13 off Toronto's bench. Toronto leads by 22 at its high point in the 4th. Chicago gets within 7. M. Smith scores last; final 125-116 Toronto.
Chicago wins 1,411 of the 5,000. Its chances rise when it makes 17+ threes (it wins 47%), wins the turnover battle (51%) or gets 22+ from Giddey (37%). The matchup to watch is Chicago's ball security against Toronto's hands. Toronto covers -10.5 in 46% and the game goes over 237.5 in 58%.
Full breakdown
Last time they met (Mar 18), Toronto won in Chicago, 139-109.
Tonight Chicago is without Nic Claxton.
Toronto went 46-36 last season (11th best record in the NBA).
Chicago went 31-51 last season (22nd best record in the NBA).
Toronto won the season series 3-0.
Toronto: gone: Brandon Ingram (now LAC), Sandro Mamukelashvili (now LAL); new: Kawhi Leonard (from LAC), Malachi Smith (from BKN), Allen Graves (rookie, #19 pick), Kyle Anderson (from UTA).
Chicago: gone: Nikola Vučević (now ORL), Ayo Dosunmu (now MIN); new: Norman Powell (from MIA), Caleb Wilson (rookie, #4 pick), Buddy Hield (from GSW).
Who's in the sim (top five by projected minutes listed first):
TOR: Barrett, Barnes, Walter, Shead, Quickley
Bench: Murray-Boyles, Leonard, Poeltl, M. Smith, Graves, Anderson
Out: Bittle
No NBA history: Graves (#19 pick, 12 min from past rookies)
CHI: Giddey, Buzelis, Okoro, Jones, Miller
Bench: Williams, J. Smith, Wilson, Powell, Collins (+1 under 8 min)
Out: Claxton, Hawkins, Swain
Maybe: Okoro (90% to play, minutes scaled), Miller (90% to play, minutes scaled), Collins (90% to play, minutes scaled)
No NBA history: Wilson (#4 pick, 20 min from past rookies)
Who gets hunted: last season shooters hit +5.9 points vs their usual FG% against Kawhi Leonard and +3.4 against Josh Giddey.
The stoppers on threes: Collin Murray-Boyles held shooters 2.4 points under their usual 3P%, Tre Jones held shooters 1.5 points under their usual 3P%.
In the sim, Leonard Miller sees Leonard on 26% of their shots.
The matchup to watch: Chicago's ball security vs Toronto's hands.
Chicago turned it over on 14.0% of possessions last season (21st fewest).
Toronto forced turnovers on 15.0% (5th most), with 8.8 steals (11th) and 4.8 blocks (15th) a game.
Shot diets.
Toronto: 36.3% of shots from three (25th), 31.5% at the rim (9th).
Chicago: 44.3% of shots from three (8th), 36.7% at the rim (3rd).
Toronto's defense: 20th fewest rim attempts allowed, 4th lowest opponent three-point % (34.9%).
Chicago's defense: 28th fewest rim attempts allowed, 23rd lowest opponent three-point % (36.8%).
Toronto's offense runs through Kawhi Leonard on the pick-and-roll ball handler: 5.9 a game last season, 24th most in the NBA.
1.10 points per play (top 6%), turnover on 12% of them.
When it goes to the roller: Toronto's roll men scored 1.17 (6th in the league). Jakob Poeltl alone: 1.31.
Chicago faced 16.4 of those a game (22nd most) and ranked 10th defending them. Against the roll man: 26th.
In the sim: 0.45 Leonard-to-Barrett baskets a game.
With 3+ Leonard assists, Toronto wins 74.6%.
Chicago's offense lives on four plays: spot-up shots, transition, the pick-and-roll ball handler, the roll man. It ranked 19th, 15th, 21st, 24th in points per play on them.
Toronto's defense ranked 13th, 17th, 21st, 12th against those same four.
Josh Giddey in one split:
The pick-and-roll ball handler: 0.77 points per play (bottom 33%), 7.2 a game.
Transition: 1.08 points per play (bottom 38%), 3.8 a game.
Toronto's defense: 17th against transition, 21st against the pick-and-roll ball handler.
Where Chicago can hit back:
- Toronto was 28th defending cuts. Matas Buzelis ran 0.9 a game at 1.46 per play
- Toronto was 21st defending the pick-and-roll ball handler. Josh Giddey ran 7.2 a game at 0.77 per play
One check against real life:
Josh Giddey scored 7.0 points in his 2 games against Toronto last season, 9 of them on Mar 18. In our 5,000 sims: 17.3.
Things you'll notice in the sim:
- Toronto leads by as many as 27 in the first half; Toronto leads 72-45 at the break
- Toronto's 10-0 run in the 2nd quarter is the biggest swing
- Poeltl puts Toronto ahead for good with 10:07 left in the 1st
- Giddey finds Buzelis 3 times
- Leonard goes 10 of 13 off Toronto's bench
- Toronto leads by 22 at its high point in the 4th. Chicago gets within 7. M. Smith scores last; final 125-116 Toronto
How Chicago wins (1,411 of the 5,000):
- It makes threes: 15.6 a game in its wins, 13.4 in its losses. At 17 or more, it wins 47%
- It wins the turnover battle: then it wins 51%
- Giddey scores 22 or more: then it wins 37%
Across all 5,000 sims:
Toronto wins 71.8%. The books (Draft Kings) have Toronto at 79%, ESPN's model at 76%.
Median score: Toronto 125, Chicago 117
Toronto covers -10.5 in 46%
Over 237.5 in 58%
Leans:
Biggest role disagreements (new to the team or the league, the books see a different role): Caleb Wilson pts+reb line 22.5, sim 10.3; Caleb Wilson pts+ast line 18.5, sim 9.6; Caleb Wilson points line 15.5, sim 7.1
- Tre Jones over 3.5 assists (85%, sim avg 5.9)
- Immanuel Quickley under 6.5 assists (84%, sim avg 4.4)
- Tre Jones over 13.5 pts+ast (81%, sim avg 18.3)
- RJ Barrett over 23.5 pts+reb (81%, sim avg 30.3)
Fine print: one game isn't a prediction. The percentages are the signal.
Our own backtest (2024-26): the books beat this sim on sides and totals. Prop leans beat the base rate by 1-4 points out of sample, not enough to prove profit. Treat it as a lens, not a bet.
Most typical game, play by play (CHI score first)
Top 10 prop ideas
No prop ideas logged for this game: not enough props were posted before tip-off.
All player props
Sorted by how far the sim sits from 50%. Players new to their team are tagged: the sim is least sure about their role.
| Player | Market | Line | Sim avg | Sim over | Lean | Sim + you |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caleb Wilsonnew team | pts+reb | 22.5 | 10.3 | 1% | under 99% | |
| Caleb Wilsonnew team | pts+ast | 18.5 | 9.6 | 3% | under 97% | |
| Caleb Wilsonnew team | points | 15.5 | 7.1 | 3% | under 97% | |
| Norman Powellnew team | pts+reb | 22.5 | 12.6 | 4% | under 96% | |
| Caleb Wilsonnew team | rebounds | 6.5 | 3.2 | 5% | under 95% | |
| Kawhi Leonardnew team | pts+reb | 32.5 | 20.9 | 5% | under 95% | |
| Norman Powellnew team | points | 19.5 | 10.9 | 6% | under 94% | |
| Kawhi Leonardnew team | pts+ast | 28.5 | 18.9 | 7% | under 93% | |
| Kawhi Leonardnew team | points | 25.5 | 16.9 | 8% | under 92% | |
| Kawhi Leonardnew team | rebounds | 6.5 | 4.0 | 11% | under 89% | |
| Kawhi Leonardnew team | assists | 3.5 | 2.0 | 14% | under 86% | |
| Tre Jones | assists | 3.5 | 5.9 | 85% | over 85% | |
| Immanuel Quickley | assists | 6.5 | 4.4 | 16% | under 84% | |
| Norman Powellnew team | threes | 2.5 | 1.4 | 17% | under 83% | |
| Tre Jones | pts+ast | 13.5 | 18.3 | 81% | over 81% | |
| RJ Barrett | pts+reb | 23.5 | 30.3 | 81% | over 81% | |
| Caleb Wilsonnew team | threes | 1.5 | 0.8 | 20% | under 80% | |
| Leonard Miller | pts+reb | 13.5 | 18.6 | 80% | over 80% | |
| RJ Barrett | pts+ast | 21.5 | 27.7 | 80% | over 80% | |
| RJ Barrett | points | 18.5 | 24.4 | 79% | over 79% | |
| Tre Jones | points | 8.5 | 12.5 | 78% | over 78% | |
| Kawhi Leonardnew team | threes | 2.5 | 1.7 | 24% | under 76% | |
| Tre Jones | pts+reb | 11.5 | 15.3 | 76% | over 76% | |
| Norman Powellnew team | rebounds | 2.5 | 1.7 | 24% | under 76% | |
| Jamal Shead | threes | 0.5 | 1.4 | 75% | over 75% | |
| Jamal Shead | pts+ast | 10.5 | 14.0 | 75% | over 75% | |
| Leonard Miller | points | 9.5 | 13.1 | 74% | over 74% | |
| Jakob Poeltl | pts+reb | 16.5 | 14.1 | 28% | under 72% | |
| Josh Giddey | points | 13.5 | 17.3 | 71% | over 71% | |
| Josh Giddey | pts+ast | 22.5 | 26.3 | 71% | over 71% | |
| Scottie Barnes | threes | 0.5 | 1.2 | 69% | over 69% | |
| Collin Murray-Boyles | pts+reb | 16.5 | 14.4 | 31% | under 69% | |
| Jakob Poeltl | rebounds | 6.5 | 5.5 | 32% | under 68% | |
| Jamal Shead | assists | 4.5 | 5.7 | 68% | over 68% | |
| RJ Barrett | threes | 1.5 | 2.3 | 67% | over 67% | |
| Collin Murray-Boyles | rebounds | 5.5 | 4.9 | 35% | under 65% | |
| Josh Giddey | pts+reb | 21.5 | 24.4 | 64% | over 64% | |
| Immanuel Quickley | pts+ast | 21.5 | 19.6 | 36% | under 64% | |
| Leonard Miller | rebounds | 4.5 | 5.4 | 63% | over 63% | |
| Norman Powellnew team | assists | 1.5 | 1.3 | 37% | under 63% | |
| Collin Murray-Boyles | points | 10.5 | 9.5 | 37% | under 63% | |
| Jamal Shead | points | 6.5 | 8.3 | 63% | over 63% | |
| Jalen Smith | pts+reb | 18.5 | 17.1 | 38% | under 62% | |
| Scottie Barnes | rebounds | 7.5 | 6.9 | 39% | under 61% | |
| Matas Buzelis | assists | 1.5 | 2.1 | 61% | over 61% | |
| Jakob Poeltl | points | 9.5 | 8.6 | 39% | under 61% | |
| Jalen Smith | pts+ast | 13.5 | 12.5 | 40% | under 60% | |
| Jalen Smith | rebounds | 6.5 | 6.0 | 40% | under 60% | |
| Scottie Barnes | points | 18.5 | 20.3 | 60% | over 60% | |
| Matas Buzelis | rebounds | 5.5 | 5.1 | 41% | under 59% | |
| Immanuel Quickley | pts+reb | 19.5 | 18.5 | 41% | under 59% | |
| Jalen Smith | assists | 1.5 | 1.4 | 41% | under 59% | |
| Immanuel Quickley | rebounds | 3.5 | 3.3 | 42% | under 58% | |
| RJ Barrett | assists | 3.5 | 3.3 | 42% | under 58% | |
| Josh Giddey | threes | 1.5 | 1.9 | 57% | over 57% | |
| Josh Giddey | rebounds | 6.5 | 7.1 | 57% | over 57% | |
| Scottie Barnes | pts+ast | 24.5 | 25.8 | 56% | over 56% | |
| Jalen Smith | points | 11.5 | 11.1 | 44% | under 56% | |
| Matas Buzelis | threes | 2.5 | 2.5 | 45% | under 55% | |
| Josh Giddey | assists | 8.5 | 9.0 | 55% | over 55% | |
| Immanuel Quickley | points | 15.5 | 15.2 | 45% | under 55% | |
| Immanuel Quickley | threes | 2.5 | 2.5 | 45% | under 55% | |
| Caleb Wilsonnew team | assists | 2.5 | 2.5 | 45% | under 55% | |
| Matas Buzelis | pts+reb | 21.5 | 22.5 | 54% | over 54% | |
| Matas Buzelis | pts+ast | 18.5 | 19.4 | 54% | over 54% | |
| RJ Barrett | rebounds | 5.5 | 5.9 | 54% | over 54% | |
| Matas Buzelis | points | 16.5 | 17.3 | 53% | over 53% | |
| Scottie Barnes | assists | 5.5 | 5.5 | 47% | under 53% | |
| Scottie Barnes | pts+reb | 26.5 | 27.2 | 52% | over 52% | |
| Jalen Smith | threes | 1.5 | 1.6 | 48% | under 52% | |
| Tre Jones | threes | 0.5 | 0.7 | 51% | over 51% |