Dallas @ Houston
Tip-off 5:30 PM PT · Draft Kings lines · 5,000 sims · win chance for HOU
NBA backtest: the books beat this sim on sides and totals; props run slightly above base rates. Details
How the sim saw it
The sim has Houston winning 78.8% of 5,000 games, against 78% from the books. The median score is Houston 124, Dallas 112. In the most typical game: Dallas leads by as many as 9 in the first half; tied 57-57 at the break. Houston's 9-0 run in the 3rd quarter is the biggest swing. Sengun puts Houston ahead for good with 11:38 left in the 4th. Sengun finds Sheppard 4 times. Gafford goes 9 of 10 off Dallas's bench. Houston leads by 14 at its high point in the 4th. Dallas gets within 6. Sengun scores last; final 124-112 Houston.
Dallas wins 1,060 of the 5,000. Its chances rise when it makes 13+ threes (it wins 38%), wins the turnover battle (33%) or gets 31+ from Irving (28%). The matchup to watch is Dallas's ball security against Houston's hands. Houston covers -9.5 in 56% and the game goes over 230.5 in 61%.
Full breakdown
Last time they met (Jan 31), Houston won in Houston, 111-107.
Tonight Dallas is without Santi Aldama and Dereck Lively II.
Houston went 52-30 last season (8th best record in the NBA).
Dallas went 26-56 last season (23rd best record in the NBA).
Houston won the season series 2-2.
Houston: gone: Josh Okogie (now UTA); new: Fred VanVleet (no NBA minutes last season), Marcus Smart (from LAL), Oscar Tshiebwe (from UTA), Bogdan Bogdanović (from LAC).
Dallas: gone: Klay Thompson (now MIA), Brandon Williams (now GSW), Ryan Nembhard (now DEN); new: Kyrie Irving (no NBA minutes last season), Morez Johnson Jr. (rookie, #9 pick), Zaccharie Risacher (from ATL), Sergio de Larrea (rookie, #25 pick), Jett Howard (from ORL).
Who's in the sim (top five by projected minutes listed first):
HOU: Thompson, Smith, VanVleet, Durant, Sengun
Bench: Sheppard, Eason, Smart, Adams, Tshiebwe, Bogdanović
Maybe: Adams (50% to play, minutes scaled)
DAL: Irving, Flagg, Washington, Marshall, Christie
Bench: Gafford, Cisse, Johnson, Larrea, Risacher (+1 under 8 min)
Out: Aldama, Biberovic, Lively, Martin
Maybe: Howard (20% to play, minutes scaled)
No NBA history: Johnson (#9 pick, 15 min from past rookies), Larrea (#25 pick, 13 min from past rookies)
Who gets hunted: last season shooters hit +2.9 points vs their usual FG% against Alperen Sengun and +1.9 against Reed Sheppard.
The stoppers on threes: Daniel Gafford held shooters 3.5 points under their usual 3P%, Naji Marshall held shooters 2.9 points under their usual 3P%.
In the sim, Kyrie Irving sees Sengun on 11% of their shots.
The matchup to watch: Dallas's ball security vs Houston's hands.
Dallas turned it over on 13.4% of possessions last season (13th fewest).
Houston forced turnovers on 12.9% (21st most), with 8.5 steals (14th) and 5.8 blocks (3rd) a game.
Shot diets.
Houston: 35.0% of shots from three (28th), 29.1% at the rim (21st).
Dallas: 35.5% of shots from three (27th), 31.0% at the rim (11th).
Houston's defense: 11th fewest rim attempts allowed, 7th lowest opponent three-point % (35.1%).
Dallas's defense: 22nd fewest rim attempts allowed, 6th lowest opponent three-point % (35.0%).
Houston's offense runs through Alperen Sengun on post-ups: 4.9 a game last season, 3rd most in the NBA.
0.97 points per play (bottom 46%), turnover on 16% of them.
Dallas faced 3.1 of those a game (24th most) and ranked 19th defending them.
In the sim: 0.92 Sengun-to-Durant baskets a game (last season: 1.62).
With 6+ Sengun assists, Houston wins 84.3%.
Dallas's offense lives on four plays: spot-up shots, transition, the pick-and-roll ball handler, isolation. It ranked 27th, 2nd, 25th, 26th in points per play on them.
Houston's defense ranked 23rd, 12th, 4th, 6th against those same four.
Where Dallas can hit back:
- Houston was 26th defending handoffs. Cooper Flagg ran 0.9 a game at 0.95 per play
- Houston was 23rd defending spot-up shots. P.J. Washington ran 4.1 a game at 1.02 per play
One check against real life:
Alperen Sengun scored 13.3 points in his 3 games against Dallas last season, 26 of them on Nov 3. In our 5,000 sims: 19.2.
Things you'll notice in the sim:
- Dallas leads by as many as 9 in the first half; tied 57-57 at the break
- Houston's 9-0 run in the 3rd quarter is the biggest swing
- Sengun puts Houston ahead for good with 11:38 left in the 4th
- Sengun finds Sheppard 4 times
- Gafford goes 9 of 10 off Dallas's bench
- Houston leads by 14 at its high point in the 4th. Dallas gets within 6. Sengun scores last; final 124-112 Houston
How Dallas wins (1,060 of the 5,000):
- It makes threes: 11.6 a game in its wins, 9.7 in its losses. At 13 or more, it wins 38%
- It wins the turnover battle: then it wins 33%
- Irving scores 31 or more: then it wins 28%
Across all 5,000 sims:
Houston wins 78.8%. The books (Draft Kings) have Houston at 78%, ESPN's model at 72%.
Median score: Houston 124, Dallas 112
Houston covers -9.5 in 56%
Over 230.5 in 61%
Leans:
Biggest role disagreements (new to the team or the league, the books see a different role): Zaccharie Risacher pts+reb line 12.5, sim 5.5; Zaccharie Risacher pts+ast line 10.5, sim 4.5; Zaccharie Risacher points line 9.5, sim 3.9
- Reed Sheppard over 10.5 pts+ast (80%, sim avg 15.3)
- Reed Sheppard over 10.5 pts+reb (77%, sim avg 14.8)
- Reed Sheppard over 8.5 points (74%, sim avg 12.4)
- Kevin Durant under 4.5 assists (74%, sim avg 3.4)
Fine print: one game isn't a prediction. The percentages are the signal.
Our own backtest (2024-26): the books beat this sim on sides and totals. Prop leans beat the base rate by 1-4 points out of sample, not enough to prove profit. Treat it as a lens, not a bet.
Most typical game, play by play (DAL score first)
Top 10 prop ideas
No prop ideas logged for this game: not enough props were posted before tip-off.
All player props
Sorted by how far the sim sits from 50%. Players new to their team are tagged: the sim is least sure about their role.
| Player | Market | Line | Sim avg | Sim over | Lean | Sim + you |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zaccharie Risachernew team | pts+reb | 12.5 | 5.5 | 3% | under 97% | |
| Zaccharie Risachernew team | pts+ast | 10.5 | 4.5 | 5% | under 95% | |
| Zaccharie Risachernew team | points | 9.5 | 3.9 | 5% | under 95% | |
| Zaccharie Risachernew team | rebounds | 3.5 | 1.6 | 7% | under 93% | |
| Zaccharie Risachernew team | assists | 1.5 | 0.6 | 12% | under 88% | |
| Reed Sheppard | pts+ast | 10.5 | 15.3 | 80% | over 80% | |
| Reed Sheppard | pts+reb | 10.5 | 14.8 | 77% | over 77% | |
| Fred VanVleetnew team | assists | 6.5 | 5.1 | 25% | under 75% | |
| Kyrie Irvingnew team | pts+ast | 24.5 | 29.9 | 75% | over 75% | |
| Kyrie Irvingnew team | points | 19.5 | 24.8 | 75% | over 75% | |
| Reed Sheppard | points | 8.5 | 12.4 | 74% | over 74% | |
| Kevin Durant | assists | 4.5 | 3.4 | 26% | under 74% | |
| Kyrie Irvingnew team | pts+reb | 23.5 | 28.8 | 74% | over 74% | |
| Reed Sheppard | threes | 1.5 | 2.5 | 73% | over 73% | |
| Kevin Durant | rebounds | 5.5 | 4.4 | 28% | under 72% | |
| Naji Marshall | pts+ast | 14.5 | 17.9 | 72% | over 72% | |
| Amen Thompson | pts+reb | 25.5 | 22.3 | 29% | under 71% | |
| Marcus Smartnew team | pts+ast | 9.5 | 7.6 | 30% | under 70% | |
| Cooper Flagg | rebounds | 6.5 | 5.4 | 30% | under 70% | |
| Max Christie | rebounds | 3.5 | 2.8 | 30% | under 70% | |
| Alperen Sengun | rebounds | 8.5 | 7.4 | 32% | under 68% | |
| Amen Thompson | pts+ast | 22.5 | 20.0 | 32% | under 68% | |
| Naji Marshall | points | 11.5 | 14.0 | 67% | over 67% | |
| Naji Marshall | pts+reb | 15.5 | 18.1 | 67% | over 67% | |
| Cooper Flagg | threes | 1.5 | 1.2 | 33% | under 67% | |
| Amen Thompson | rebounds | 7.5 | 6.6 | 34% | under 66% | |
| Daniel Gafford | rebounds | 6.5 | 5.7 | 34% | under 66% | |
| Marcus Smartnew team | pts+reb | 8.5 | 7.2 | 35% | under 65% | |
| Marcus Smartnew team | points | 6.5 | 5.5 | 35% | under 65% | |
| Kevin Durant | pts+ast | 28.5 | 26.4 | 36% | under 64% | |
| Amen Thompson | points | 17.5 | 15.7 | 36% | under 64% | |
| Marcus Smartnew team | assists | 2.5 | 2.2 | 36% | under 64% | |
| Tari Eason | threes | 1.5 | 1.3 | 36% | under 64% | |
| Alperen Sengun | pts+reb | 28.5 | 26.5 | 36% | under 64% | |
| Daniel Gafford | pts+reb | 16.5 | 15.1 | 37% | under 63% | |
| Max Christie | assists | 1.5 | 2.1 | 63% | over 63% | |
| P.J. Washington | assists | 1.5 | 2.1 | 63% | over 63% | |
| Cooper Flagg | assists | 5.5 | 4.9 | 37% | under 63% | |
| Fred VanVleetnew team | pts+ast | 19.5 | 18.0 | 38% | under 62% | |
| Kevin Durant | threes | 2.5 | 2.2 | 39% | under 61% | |
| Naji Marshall | threes | 0.5 | 0.9 | 61% | over 61% | |
| Jabari Smith Jr. | threes | 1.5 | 2.1 | 61% | over 61% | |
| Tari Eason | rebounds | 4.5 | 5.2 | 60% | over 60% | |
| Max Christie | pts+reb | 13.5 | 12.6 | 40% | under 60% | |
| Jabari Smith Jr. | assists | 1.5 | 1.4 | 40% | under 60% | |
| Fred VanVleetnew team | rebounds | 2.5 | 3.1 | 60% | over 60% | |
| Naji Marshall | rebounds | 3.5 | 4.1 | 60% | over 60% | |
| Max Christie | points | 10.5 | 9.8 | 41% | under 59% | |
| Kyrie Irvingnew team | assists | 4.5 | 5.1 | 59% | over 59% | |
| Alperen Sengun | pts+ast | 24.5 | 23.6 | 42% | under 58% | |
| Kevin Durant | pts+reb | 28.5 | 27.3 | 42% | under 58% | |
| Max Christie | pts+ast | 12.5 | 11.9 | 42% | under 58% | |
| Amen Thompson | assists | 4.5 | 4.3 | 42% | under 58% | |
| Fred VanVleetnew team | points | 13.5 | 12.9 | 43% | under 57% | |
| Zaccharie Risachernew team | threes | 0.5 | 0.6 | 43% | under 57% | |
| Fred VanVleetnew team | pts+reb | 16.5 | 15.9 | 43% | under 57% | |
| P.J. Washington | rebounds | 5.5 | 6.0 | 57% | over 57% | |
| P.J. Washington | threes | 1.5 | 1.5 | 44% | under 56% | |
| Jabari Smith Jr. | rebounds | 5.5 | 6.1 | 56% | over 56% | |
| Reed Sheppard | assists | 2.5 | 2.9 | 56% | over 56% | |
| Kyrie Irvingnew team | rebounds | 3.5 | 3.9 | 56% | over 56% | |
| Kevin Durant | points | 23.5 | 22.9 | 44% | under 56% | |
| Fred VanVleetnew team | threes | 2.5 | 2.5 | 45% | under 55% | |
| P.J. Washington | pts+reb | 19.5 | 19.2 | 45% | under 55% | |
| Alperen Sengun | assists | 4.5 | 4.4 | 45% | under 55% | |
| Alperen Sengun | points | 19.5 | 19.2 | 46% | under 54% | |
| Kyrie Irvingnew team | threes | 2.5 | 2.9 | 54% | over 54% | |
| Tari Eason | pts+reb | 14.5 | 15.5 | 54% | over 54% | |
| Naji Marshall | assists | 3.5 | 3.9 | 54% | over 54% | |
| Daniel Gafford | points | 9.5 | 9.4 | 46% | under 54% | |
| Cooper Flagg | pts+reb | 27.5 | 27.1 | 47% | under 53% | |
| P.J. Washington | pts+ast | 14.5 | 15.3 | 53% | over 53% | |
| Jabari Smith Jr. | points | 13.5 | 13.5 | 47% | under 53% | |
| Max Christie | threes | 1.5 | 1.8 | 53% | over 53% | |
| Tari Eason | points | 9.5 | 10.2 | 52% | over 52% | |
| P.J. Washington | points | 12.5 | 13.2 | 52% | over 52% | |
| Jabari Smith Jr. | pts+reb | 19.5 | 19.6 | 49% | under 51% | |
| Cooper Flagg | pts+ast | 26.5 | 26.6 | 49% | under 51% | |
| Jabari Smith Jr. | pts+ast | 14.5 | 14.9 | 49% | under 51% | |
| Cooper Flagg | points | 21.5 | 21.7 | 49% | under 51% |