Golden State @ Los Angeles
Tip-off 7:00 PM PT · Draft Kings lines · 5,000 sims · win chance for LAL
NBA backtest: the books beat this sim on sides and totals; props run slightly above base rates. Details
How the sim saw it
The sim has Los Angeles winning 64.3% of 5,000 games, against 67% from the books. The median score is Los Angeles 117, Golden State 112. In the most typical game: Los Angeles leads by as many as 9 in the first half; Los Angeles leads 69-60 at the break. Golden State's 8-0 run in the 4th quarter is the biggest swing. Z. Williams puts Los Angeles ahead for good with 5:53 left in the 2nd. Dončić finds Reaves 3 times. Green finds Curry 4 times. Cryer goes 6 of 12 off Golden State's bench. Los Angeles leads by 11 at its high point in the 4th. Golden State gets within 3. Melton scores last; final 117-111 Los Angeles.
Golden State wins 1,786 of the 5,000. Its chances rise when it makes 20+ threes (it wins 60%), wins the turnover battle (48%) or gets 31+ from Curry (47%). The matchup to watch is Los Angeles's ball security against Golden State's hands. Los Angeles covers -6.5 in 49% and the game goes over 234.5 in 39%.
Full breakdown
A year ago tonight, Golden State won in Los Angeles, 119-109.
Last time they met (Apr 9), Los Angeles won in Golden State, 119-103.
Tonight Golden State is without Jimmy Butler III, Moses Moody, Brandin Podziemski and Kristaps Porziņģis.
Los Angeles went 53-29 last season (6th best record in the NBA).
Golden State went 37-45 last season (20th best record in the NBA).
Los Angeles won the season series 3-1.
Luka Dončić missed 2 of the 4 meetings.
Stephen Curry missed 3 of the 4 meetings.
Los Angeles: gone: LeBron James (now PHI), Deandre Ayton (now WAS), Rui Hachimura (now LAC), Marcus Smart (now HOU), Jaxson Hayes (now UTA); new: Walker Kessler (from UTA), Collin Sexton (from CHA), Ziaire Williams (from BKN), Quentin Grimes (from PHI), Jaden Hardy (from WAS), Sandro Mamukelashvili (from TOR), Matisse Thybulle (from POR), Kevon Looney (from NOP).
Golden State: gone: Pat Spencer (now PHX); new: Brandon Williams (from DAL), Georges Niang (from UTA), Yaxel Lendeborg (rookie, #11 pick).
Who's in the sim (top five by projected minutes listed first):
LAL: Reaves, Dončić, Kessler, Z. Williams, Grimes
Bench: LaRavia, Hardy, Mamukelashvili, Thybulle, Looney, Sexton
Out: Carr, Thiero
Maybe: Sexton (50% to play, minutes scaled)
GSW: Green, Santos, Curry, Melton, Horford
Bench: Payton, Cryer, Richard, B. Williams, Lendeborg, Niang
Out: Bassey, Butler, Moody, Podziemski, Porziņģis
Maybe: Curry (90% to play, minutes scaled)
No NBA history: Lendeborg (#11 pick, 15 min from past rookies)
Who gets hunted: last season shooters hit +5.8 points vs their usual FG% against De'Anthony Melton and +2.5 against Gui Santos.
The stoppers on threes: Al Horford held shooters 5.6 points under their usual 3P%, Luka Dončić held shooters 4.7 points under their usual 3P%.
In the sim, Quentin Grimes sees Melton on 18% of their shots.
The matchup to watch: Los Angeles's ball security vs Golden State's hands.
Los Angeles turned it over on 13.8% of possessions last season (19th fewest).
Golden State forced turnovers on 15.0% (4th most), with 9.7 steals (2nd) and 4.2 blocks (26th) a game.
Shot diets.
Los Angeles: 39.4% of shots from three (22nd), 29.2% at the rim (20th).
Golden State: 49.7% of shots from three (1st), 27.8% at the rim (25th).
Los Angeles's defense: 17th fewest rim attempts allowed, 9th lowest opponent three-point % (35.2%).
Golden State's defense: 10th fewest rim attempts allowed, 19th lowest opponent three-point % (36.0%).
Los Angeles's offense runs through Luka Dončić on the pick-and-roll ball handler: 10.8 a game last season, most in the NBA.
1.04 points per play (top 10%), turnover on 13% of them.
When it goes to the roller: Los Angeles's roll men scored 1.17 (7th in the league). Sandro Mamukelashvili alone: 1.02.
Golden State faced 15.5 of those a game (26th most) and ranked 15th defending them. Against the roll man: 7th.
In the sim: 1.57 Dončić-to-Reaves baskets a game (last season: 1.05).
With 8+ Dončić assists, Los Angeles wins 70.7%.
Golden State's offense lives on four plays: spot-up shots, transition, the pick-and-roll ball handler, cuts. It ranked 14th, 27th, 18th, 4th in points per play on them.
Los Angeles's defense ranked 6th, 8th, 8th, 29th against those same four.
Stephen Curry in one split:
Handoffs: 1.61 points per play (top 1%), 2.8 a game.
The pick-and-roll ball handler: 0.97 points per play (top 21%), 4.9 a game.
Los Angeles's defense: 8th against the pick-and-roll ball handler, 29th against handoffs.
Where Golden State can hit back:
- Los Angeles was 30th defending the roll man. Draymond Green ran 1.2 a game at 0.97 per play
- Los Angeles was 29th defending cuts. Gary Payton II ran 1.8 a game at 1.52 per play
One check against real life:
Luka Dončić scored 34.5 points in his 2 games against Golden State last season, 43 of them on Oct 21. In our 5,000 sims: 38.1.
Stephen Curry scored 23 in his one game against Los Angeles last season. In our 5,000 sims: 24.6.
Things you'll notice in the sim:
- Los Angeles leads by as many as 9 in the first half; Los Angeles leads 69-60 at the break
- Golden State's 8-0 run in the 4th quarter is the biggest swing
- Z. Williams puts Los Angeles ahead for good with 5:53 left in the 2nd
- Dončić finds Reaves 3 times
- Green finds Curry 4 times
- Cryer goes 6 of 12 off Golden State's bench
- Los Angeles leads by 11 at its high point in the 4th. Golden State gets within 3. Melton scores last; final 117-111 Los Angeles
How Golden State wins (1,786 of the 5,000):
- It makes threes: 18.3 a game in its wins, 15.6 in its losses. At 20 or more, it wins 60%
- It wins the turnover battle: then it wins 48%
- Curry scores 31 or more: then it wins 47%
Across all 5,000 sims:
Los Angeles wins 64.3%. The books (Draft Kings) have Los Angeles at 67%, ESPN's model at 78%.
Median score: Los Angeles 117, Golden State 112
Los Angeles covers -6.5 in 49%
Over 234.5 in 39%
Leans:
Biggest role disagreements (new to the team or the league, the books see a different role): Yaxel Lendeborg pts+reb line 22.5, sim 8.1; Yaxel Lendeborg pts+ast line 18.5, sim 7.1; Yaxel Lendeborg rebounds line 7.5, sim 2.7
Caution: tonight the sim sits 1.1 under the books' prop lines on average, so unders are inflated
- Luka Dončić over 3.5 threes (75%, sim avg 5.0)
- Luka Dončić over 32.5 points (73%, sim avg 38.1)
- Luka Dončić over 40.5 pts+reb (71%, sim avg 45.8)
- Luka Dončić over 40.5 pts+ast (68%, sim avg 44.7)
Fine print: one game isn't a prediction. The percentages are the signal.
Our own backtest (2024-26): the books beat this sim on sides and totals. Prop leans beat the base rate by 1-4 points out of sample, not enough to prove profit. Treat it as a lens, not a bet.
Most typical game, play by play (GSW score first)
Top 10 prop ideas
No prop ideas logged for this game: not enough props were posted before tip-off.
All player props
Sorted by how far the sim sits from 50%. Players new to their team are tagged: the sim is least sure about their role.
| Player | Market | Line | Sim avg | Sim over | Lean | Sim + you |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yaxel Lendeborgnew team | pts+reb | 22.5 | 8.1 | 0% | under 100% | |
| Yaxel Lendeborgnew team | pts+ast | 18.5 | 7.1 | 1% | under 99% | |
| Yaxel Lendeborgnew team | rebounds | 7.5 | 2.7 | 1% | under 99% | |
| Yaxel Lendeborgnew team | points | 14.5 | 5.4 | 1% | under 99% | |
| Walker Kesslernew team | pts+reb | 24.5 | 16.1 | 6% | under 94% | |
| Sandro Mamukelashvilinew team | pts+reb | 16.5 | 9.9 | 8% | under 92% | |
| Walker Kesslernew team | pts+ast | 14.5 | 8.7 | 9% | under 91% | |
| Walker Kesslernew team | points | 12.5 | 7.4 | 10% | under 90% | |
| Matisse Thybullenew team | pts+reb | 9.5 | 5.1 | 11% | under 89% | |
| Sandro Mamukelashvilinew team | pts+ast | 12.5 | 7.6 | 11% | under 89% | |
| Yaxel Lendeborgnew team | threes | 1.5 | 0.6 | 11% | under 89% | |
| Sandro Mamukelashvilinew team | rebounds | 5.5 | 3.4 | 13% | under 87% | |
| Sandro Mamukelashvilinew team | points | 10.5 | 6.5 | 15% | under 85% | |
| Matisse Thybullenew team | pts+ast | 7.5 | 4.3 | 16% | under 84% | |
| Matisse Thybullenew team | threes | 1.5 | 0.7 | 16% | under 84% | |
| Walker Kesslernew team | rebounds | 11.5 | 8.7 | 17% | under 83% | |
| Walker Kesslernew team | threes | 0.5 | 0.2 | 18% | under 82% | |
| Quentin Grimesnew team | pts+ast | 13.5 | 9.8 | 19% | under 81% | |
| Matisse Thybullenew team | rebounds | 2.5 | 1.7 | 22% | under 78% | |
| Matisse Thybullenew team | points | 5.5 | 3.4 | 22% | under 78% | |
| Sandro Mamukelashvilinew team | threes | 1.5 | 0.9 | 22% | under 78% | |
| Yaxel Lendeborgnew team | assists | 2.5 | 1.7 | 23% | under 77% | |
| Quentin Grimesnew team | pts+reb | 13.5 | 10.4 | 24% | under 76% | |
| Luka Dončić | threes | 3.5 | 5.0 | 75% | over 75% | |
| Quentin Grimesnew team | points | 10.5 | 7.9 | 25% | under 75% | |
| Quentin Grimesnew team | rebounds | 3.5 | 2.5 | 25% | under 75% | |
| Brandon Williamsnew team | pts+reb | 13.5 | 10.9 | 27% | under 73% | |
| Luka Dončić | points | 32.5 | 38.1 | 73% | over 73% | |
| Luka Dončić | pts+reb | 40.5 | 45.8 | 71% | over 71% | |
| Quentin Grimesnew team | assists | 2.5 | 1.9 | 30% | under 70% | |
| Quentin Grimesnew team | threes | 1.5 | 1.1 | 30% | under 70% | |
| Sandro Mamukelashvilinew team | assists | 1.5 | 1.1 | 30% | under 70% | |
| Brandon Williamsnew team | points | 10.5 | 8.8 | 32% | under 68% | |
| Brandon Williamsnew team | pts+ast | 13.5 | 11.7 | 32% | under 68% | |
| Luka Dončić | pts+ast | 40.5 | 44.7 | 68% | over 68% | |
| Al Horford | pts+reb | 10.5 | 12.8 | 66% | over 66% | |
| Luka Dončić | assists | 7.5 | 6.7 | 34% | under 66% | |
| Ziaire Williamsnew team | pts+reb | 11.5 | 10.0 | 35% | under 65% | |
| Brandon Williamsnew team | rebounds | 2.5 | 2.1 | 35% | under 65% | |
| Austin Reaves | assists | 5.5 | 4.8 | 36% | under 64% | |
| Austin Reaves | pts+ast | 29.5 | 27.3 | 37% | under 63% | |
| Walker Kesslernew team | assists | 1.5 | 1.3 | 38% | under 62% | |
| Stephen Curry | assists | 4.5 | 4.1 | 38% | under 62% | |
| Al Horford | assists | 2.5 | 2.3 | 40% | under 60% | |
| Draymond Green | threes | 1.5 | 1.4 | 40% | under 60% | |
| Al Horford | pts+ast | 8.5 | 10.0 | 60% | over 60% | |
| Austin Reaves | pts+reb | 28.5 | 27.1 | 40% | under 60% | |
| Brandon Williamsnew team | threes | 0.5 | 0.5 | 41% | under 59% | |
| Draymond Green | assists | 5.5 | 6.1 | 58% | over 58% | |
| Al Horford | points | 6.5 | 7.8 | 58% | over 58% | |
| Austin Reaves | points | 23.5 | 22.5 | 42% | under 58% | |
| Draymond Green | points | 7.5 | 8.9 | 58% | over 58% | |
| Stephen Curry | threes | 4.5 | 4.3 | 42% | under 58% | |
| Al Horford | rebounds | 4.5 | 5.1 | 57% | over 57% | |
| Stephen Curry | rebounds | 3.5 | 3.4 | 43% | under 57% | |
| Draymond Green | pts+reb | 13.5 | 14.7 | 57% | over 57% | |
| Al Horford | threes | 1.5 | 1.5 | 44% | under 56% | |
| Brandon Williamsnew team | assists | 2.5 | 2.9 | 56% | over 56% | |
| De'Anthony Melton | threes | 1.5 | 1.9 | 55% | over 55% | |
| Gui Santos | assists | 3.5 | 3.4 | 45% | under 55% | |
| De'Anthony Melton | points | 13.5 | 13.3 | 46% | under 54% | |
| Ziaire Williamsnew team | points | 7.5 | 7.5 | 46% | under 54% | |
| De'Anthony Melton | assists | 2.5 | 2.8 | 54% | over 54% | |
| Gui Santos | pts+ast | 16.5 | 16.5 | 47% | under 53% | |
| Ziaire Williamsnew team | rebounds | 2.5 | 2.6 | 47% | under 53% | |
| Gui Santos | threes | 1.5 | 1.6 | 47% | under 53% | |
| Draymond Green | rebounds | 5.5 | 5.8 | 52% | over 52% | |
| Austin Reaves | rebounds | 4.5 | 4.6 | 48% | under 52% | |
| Gui Santos | rebounds | 5.5 | 5.8 | 52% | over 52% | |
| Stephen Curry | points | 24.5 | 24.6 | 49% | under 51% | |
| De'Anthony Melton | rebounds | 3.5 | 3.6 | 49% | under 51% | |
| Luka Dončić | rebounds | 7.5 | 7.7 | 51% | over 51% | |
| Gui Santos | points | 12.5 | 13.0 | 51% | over 51% | |
| De'Anthony Melton | pts+ast | 15.5 | 16.1 | 51% | over 51% | |
| Stephen Curry | pts+ast | 28.5 | 28.7 | 49% | under 51% | |
| De'Anthony Melton | pts+reb | 16.5 | 16.9 | 49% | under 51% | |
| Austin Reaves | threes | 2.5 | 2.7 | 51% | over 51% | |
| Stephen Curry | pts+reb | 27.5 | 28.0 | 50% | over 50% | |
| Draymond Green | pts+ast | 14.5 | 15.0 | 50% | over 50% | |
| Gui Santos | pts+reb | 18.5 | 18.8 | 50% | under 50% |