Utah @ Memphis
Tip-off 5:00 PM PT · Draft Kings lines · 5,000 sims · win chance for MEM
NBA backtest: the books beat this sim on sides and totals; props run slightly above base rates. Details
How the sim saw it
The sim has Memphis winning 57.7% of 5,000 games, against 53% from the books. The median score is Memphis 131, Utah 129. In the most typical game: Memphis leads by as many as 15 in the first half; Memphis leads 76-61 at the break. Utah's 9-0 run in the 1st quarter is the biggest swing. Jerome puts Memphis ahead for good with 10:44 left in the 2nd. Spencer finds Edey 3 times. Collier goes 6 of 7 off Utah's bench. Memphis leads by 18 at its high point in the 4th. Utah gets within 3. George scores last; final 131-128 Memphis.
Utah wins 2,114 of the 5,000. Its chances rise when it makes 19+ threes (it wins 64%), wins the turnover battle (58%) or gets 25+ from Markkanen (52%). The matchup to watch is Utah's ball security against Memphis's hands. Memphis covers -1.5 in 55% and the game goes over 241.5 in 82%.
Full breakdown
Last time they met (Apr 10), Utah won in Utah, 147-101.
Tonight Utah is without Jusuf Nurkić.
Memphis went 25-57 last season (25th best record in the NBA).
Utah went 22-60 last season (26th best record in the NBA).
Memphis won the season series 2-2.
GG Jackson missed 2 of the 4 meetings.
Javon Small missed 2 of the 4 meetings.
Cedric Coward missed 3 of the 4 meetings.
Lauri Markkanen missed 3 of the 4 meetings.
Keyonte George missed 2 of the 4 meetings.
Svi Mykhailiuk missed 2 of the 4 meetings.
Memphis: gone: Jaren Jackson Jr. (now UTA), Santi Aldama (now DAL), Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (now PHI), Jock Landale (now ATL); new: Jerami Grant (from POR).
Utah: gone: Cody Williams (now MIN); new: Jaren Jackson Jr. (from MEM), Darryn Peterson (rookie, #2 pick), Jaxson Hayes (from LAL).
Who's in the sim (top five by projected minutes listed first):
MEM: Mashack, Edey, G. Jackson, Wells, Small
Bench: Coward, Pippen, Spencer, Hendricks, Jerome, Grant
UTA: Bailey, Markkanen, J. Jackson, George, Sensabaugh
Bench: Collier, Filipowski, Peterson, Hinson, Mykhailiuk, Hayes
Out: Alexander, Bradley, Nurkić
No NBA history: Peterson (#2 pick, 18 min from past rookies)
Who gets hunted: last season shooters hit +7.5 points vs their usual FG% against Isaiah Collier and +7.3 against Taylor Hendricks.
The stoppers on threes: Lauri Markkanen held shooters 5.8 points under their usual 3P%, Jaylen Wells held shooters 2.1 points under their usual 3P%.
In the sim, Javon Small sees Collier on 18% of their shots.
The matchup to watch: Utah's ball security vs Memphis's hands.
Utah turned it over on 14.3% of possessions last season (23rd fewest).
Memphis forced turnovers on 14.4% (8th most), with 8.8 steals (10th) and 4.8 blocks (16th) a game.
Shot diets.
Memphis: 43.6% of shots from three (10th), 27.1% at the rim (27th).
Utah: 40.2% of shots from three (21st), 28.8% at the rim (23rd).
Memphis's defense: 21st fewest rim attempts allowed, 21st lowest opponent three-point % (36.4%).
Utah's defense: 4th fewest rim attempts allowed, 27th lowest opponent three-point % (37.2%).
Memphis's offense runs through Cam Spencer on the pick-and-roll ball handler: 3.6 a game last season, 66th most in the NBA.
1.06 points per play (top 7%), turnover on 12% of them.
When it goes to the roller: Memphis's roll men scored 1.12 (13th in the league). Jahmai Mashack alone: 0.82.
Utah faced 13.1 of those a game (29th most) and ranked 28th defending them. Against the roll man: 27th.
In the sim: 0.71 Spencer-to-G. Jackson baskets a game (last season: 0.94).
With 7+ Spencer assists, Memphis wins 64.4%.
Utah's offense lives on four plays: spot-up shots, transition, the pick-and-roll ball handler, cuts. It ranked 20th, 12th, 10th, 18th in points per play on them.
Memphis's defense ranked 19th, 15th, 25th, 30th against those same four.
Lauri Markkanen in one split:
Cuts: 1.56 points per play (top 6%), 2.4 a game.
Off-screen shots: 1.02 points per play (top 40%), 4.5 a game.
Memphis's defense: 27th against off-screen shots, 30th against cuts.
Where Utah can hit back:
- Memphis was 30th defending cuts. Lauri Markkanen ran 2.4 a game at 1.56 per play
- Memphis was 27th defending isolation. Keyonte George ran 3.0 a game at 0.87 per play
One check against real life:
Cam Spencer scored 13.7 points in his 3 games against Utah last season, 20 of them on Dec 12. In our 5,000 sims: 10.1.
Lauri Markkanen scored 26 in his one game against Memphis last season. In our 5,000 sims: 19.4.
Things you'll notice in the sim:
- Memphis leads by as many as 15 in the first half; Memphis leads 76-61 at the break
- Utah's 9-0 run in the 1st quarter is the biggest swing
- Jerome puts Memphis ahead for good with 10:44 left in the 2nd
- Spencer finds Edey 3 times
- Collier goes 6 of 7 off Utah's bench
- Memphis leads by 18 at its high point in the 4th. Utah gets within 3. George scores last; final 131-128 Memphis
How Utah wins (2,114 of the 5,000):
- It makes threes: 17.4 a game in its wins, 15.1 in its losses. At 19 or more, it wins 64%
- It wins the turnover battle: then it wins 58%
- Markkanen scores 25 or more: then it wins 52%
Across all 5,000 sims:
Memphis wins 57.7%. The books (Draft Kings) have Memphis at 53%, ESPN's model at 48%.
Median score: Memphis 131, Utah 129
Memphis covers -1.5 in 55%
Over 241.5 in 82%
Leans:
Biggest role disagreements (new to the team or the league, the books see a different role): Jaxson Hayes pts+reb line 13.5, sim 5.6; Darryn Peterson pts+ast line 17.5, sim 8.4; Darryn Peterson points line 14.5, sim 5.9
Caution: tonight the sim sits 0.9 under the books' prop lines on average, so unders are inflated
- Isaiah Collier over 3.5 assists (98%, sim avg 8.7)
- Isaiah Collier over 10.5 pts+ast (96%, sim avg 19.1)
- Ty Jerome under 6.5 assists (87%, sim avg 4.2)
- Isaiah Collier over 5.5 points (86%, sim avg 10.4)
Fine print: one game isn't a prediction. The percentages are the signal.
Our own backtest (2024-26): the books beat this sim on sides and totals. Prop leans beat the base rate by 1-4 points out of sample, not enough to prove profit. Treat it as a lens, not a bet.
Most typical game, play by play (UTA score first)
Top 10 prop ideas
No prop ideas logged for this game: not enough props were posted before tip-off.
All player props
Sorted by how far the sim sits from 50%. Players new to their team are tagged: the sim is least sure about their role.
| Player | Market | Line | Sim avg | Sim over | Lean | Sim + you |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaxson Hayesnew team | pts+reb | 13.5 | 5.6 | 1% | under 99% | |
| Darryn Petersonnew team | pts+ast | 17.5 | 8.4 | 2% | under 98% | |
| Darryn Petersonnew team | points | 14.5 | 5.9 | 2% | under 98% | |
| Isaiah Collier | assists | 3.5 | 8.7 | 98% | over 98% | |
| Darryn Petersonnew team | pts+reb | 18.5 | 9.5 | 3% | under 97% | |
| Isaiah Collier | pts+ast | 10.5 | 19.1 | 96% | over 96% | |
| Jaxson Hayesnew team | points | 7.5 | 2.9 | 5% | under 95% | |
| Jaxson Hayesnew team | rebounds | 5.5 | 2.7 | 6% | under 94% | |
| Ty Jerome | assists | 6.5 | 4.2 | 13% | under 87% | |
| Isaiah Collier | points | 5.5 | 10.4 | 86% | over 86% | |
| Darryn Petersonnew team | threes | 1.5 | 0.7 | 15% | under 85% | |
| Ty Jerome | pts+ast | 27.5 | 21.3 | 17% | under 83% | |
| Isaiah Collier | pts+reb | 8.5 | 13.4 | 83% | over 83% | |
| Cam Spencer | pts+ast | 10.5 | 15.4 | 81% | over 81% | |
| Keyonte George | pts+reb | 24.5 | 19.2 | 20% | under 80% | |
| Cam Spencer | assists | 3.5 | 5.3 | 79% | over 79% | |
| Keyonte George | pts+ast | 26.5 | 21.7 | 22% | under 78% | |
| Cedric Coward | assists | 3.5 | 2.4 | 23% | under 77% | |
| Zach Edey | pts+reb | 23.5 | 19.8 | 24% | under 76% | |
| Zach Edey | rebounds | 10.5 | 8.7 | 25% | under 75% | |
| Lauri Markkanen | assists | 2.5 | 1.7 | 25% | under 75% | |
| Cam Spencer | points | 6.5 | 10.1 | 75% | over 75% | |
| Ty Jerome | rebounds | 3.5 | 2.6 | 26% | under 74% | |
| Jaren Jackson Jr.new team | rebounds | 6.5 | 5.2 | 26% | under 74% | |
| Jerami Grantnew team | points | 12.5 | 9.8 | 27% | under 73% | |
| Jerami Grantnew team | pts+reb | 14.5 | 11.7 | 27% | under 73% | |
| Ty Jerome | pts+reb | 23.5 | 19.7 | 27% | under 73% | |
| Keyonte George | points | 19.5 | 16.1 | 28% | under 72% | |
| Ty Jerome | points | 20.5 | 17.1 | 28% | under 72% | |
| Lauri Markkanen | pts+ast | 24.5 | 21.2 | 29% | under 71% | |
| Jerami Grantnew team | rebounds | 2.5 | 1.9 | 30% | under 70% | |
| Darryn Petersonnew team | rebounds | 4.5 | 3.6 | 30% | under 70% | |
| Ace Bailey | rebounds | 3.5 | 4.7 | 70% | over 70% | |
| Ace Bailey | pts+reb | 15.5 | 19.0 | 70% | over 70% | |
| Cam Spencer | pts+reb | 9.5 | 12.5 | 69% | over 69% | |
| Lauri Markkanen | pts+reb | 28.5 | 25.5 | 32% | under 68% | |
| Ace Bailey | pts+ast | 13.5 | 16.4 | 67% | over 67% | |
| Jaren Jackson Jr.new team | assists | 2.5 | 2.0 | 34% | under 66% | |
| Keyonte George | threes | 2.5 | 2.1 | 34% | under 66% | |
| Keyonte George | assists | 6.5 | 5.6 | 34% | under 66% | |
| Ace Bailey | points | 11.5 | 14.3 | 66% | over 66% | |
| Zach Edey | points | 12.5 | 11.1 | 35% | under 65% | |
| Lauri Markkanen | points | 21.5 | 19.4 | 36% | under 64% | |
| Cedric Coward | rebounds | 5.5 | 4.8 | 36% | under 64% | |
| Keyonte George | rebounds | 3.5 | 3.1 | 38% | under 62% | |
| Jerami Grantnew team | threes | 1.5 | 1.3 | 38% | under 62% | |
| Ace Bailey | assists | 1.5 | 2.1 | 61% | over 61% | |
| Cedric Coward | pts+ast | 17.5 | 16.0 | 39% | under 61% | |
| Ty Jerome | threes | 2.5 | 2.3 | 40% | under 60% | |
| Lauri Markkanen | rebounds | 6.5 | 6.1 | 40% | under 60% | |
| Jaren Jackson Jr.new team | pts+reb | 24.5 | 23.4 | 41% | under 59% | |
| Ace Bailey | threes | 1.5 | 2.0 | 59% | over 59% | |
| Cedric Coward | pts+reb | 19.5 | 18.4 | 41% | under 59% | |
| Cam Spencer | rebounds | 2.5 | 2.4 | 43% | under 57% | |
| Lauri Markkanen | threes | 2.5 | 2.4 | 44% | under 56% | |
| Jaylen Wells | threes | 1.5 | 1.8 | 55% | over 55% | |
| Cam Spencer | threes | 1.5 | 1.8 | 54% | over 54% | |
| Jaylen Wells | pts+reb | 14.5 | 14.3 | 46% | under 54% | |
| Jaren Jackson Jr.new team | points | 18.5 | 18.2 | 46% | under 54% | |
| Jaren Jackson Jr.new team | pts+ast | 20.5 | 20.2 | 47% | under 53% | |
| Jaylen Wells | rebounds | 2.5 | 2.8 | 53% | over 53% | |
| Jaylen Wells | points | 11.5 | 11.6 | 48% | under 52% | |
| Darryn Petersonnew team | assists | 2.5 | 2.6 | 48% | under 52% | |
| Cedric Coward | threes | 1.5 | 1.6 | 48% | under 52% | |
| Jaren Jackson Jr.new team | threes | 1.5 | 1.7 | 52% | over 52% | |
| Cedric Coward | points | 13.5 | 13.6 | 49% | under 51% |