Gametime

Atlanta @ Charlotte

Tip-off 4:00 PM PT · Draft Kings lines · 5,000 sims · win chance for CHA

Sim
59%
Books
44%
ESPN model
50%
Median score
114-117
ATL - CHA
ATL -2.5
36%
sim cover rate
Total 225.5
61%
over · sim avg 231
Moneyline
+120
CHA · ATL -142

NBA backtest: the books beat this sim on sides and totals; props run slightly above base rates. Details

How the sim saw it

The sim has Charlotte winning 59.0% of 5,000 games, against 44% from the books. The median score is Charlotte 117, Atlanta 114. In the most typical game: Atlanta leads by as many as 6 in the first half; Atlanta leads 63-59 at the break. Charlotte's 11-0 run in the 4th quarter is the biggest swing. Schröder puts Charlotte ahead for good with 0:00 left in the 4th. Schröder finds Allen 3 times. Johnson finds Alexander-Walker 3 times. Kalkbrenner goes 5 of 7 off Charlotte's bench. Charlotte leads by 4 at its high point in the 4th. Atlanta pulls even late. Miller scores last; final 118-114 Charlotte.

Atlanta wins 2,049 of the 5,000. Its chances rise when it makes 17+ threes (it wins 59%), wins the turnover battle (48%) or gets 24+ from Johnson (50%). The matchup to watch is Charlotte's ball security against Atlanta's hands. Atlanta covers -2.5 in 36% and the game goes over 225.5 in 61%.

Full breakdown

  1. Last time they met (Feb 11), Charlotte won in Charlotte, 110-107.

    Tonight Charlotte is without Kon Knueppel, Coby White and Grant Williams.

    Tonight Atlanta is without Mouhamed Gueye.

    Charlotte went 44-38 last season (16th best record in the NBA).

    Atlanta went 46-36 last season (11th best record in the NBA).

    Charlotte won the season series 3-1.

    CJ McCollum missed 2 of the 4 meetings.

    Charlotte: gone: Miles Bridges (now PHX), LaMelo Ball (now MIN), Collin Sexton (now LAL); new: Grayson Allen (from PHX), Royce O'Neale (from PHX), Naz Reid (from MIN), Dennis Schröder (from SAC), Hannes Steinbach (rookie, #14 pick), Christian Anderson (no NBA minutes last season), Michael Ajayi (no NBA minutes last season).

    Atlanta: gone: Zaccharie Risacher (now DAL), Vít Krejčí (now POR); new: Luguentz Dort (from OKC), Aaron Wiggins (from OKC), Jock Landale (from MEM), Keshon Gilbert (from WAS), Dorian Finney-Smith (from HOU), Jalen Wilson (from BKN), Kingston Flemings (no NBA minutes last season), Zuby Ejiofor (rookie, #23 pick), RayJ Dennis (from IND).

  2. Who's in the sim (top five by projected minutes listed first):

    CHA: Miller, Allen, O'Neale, Diabaté, Reid

    Bench: Schröder, James, Kalkbrenner, Salaün, Steinbach, Anderson (+3 under 8 min)

    Out: Boswell, Knueppel, White, Williams

    No NBA history: Ajayi (undrafted, 2 min from past rookies), Steinbach (#14 pick, 11 min from past rookies)

    ATL: Johnson, Daniels, Alexander-Walker, Okongwu, McCollum

    Bench: Dort, Wiggins, Landale, Gilbert, Kispert, Flemings, Finney-Smith, Wilson (+2 under 8 min)

    Out: Gueye, Veesaar

    No NBA history: Ejiofor (#23 pick, 7 min from past rookies)

  3. Who gets hunted: last season shooters hit +6.1 points vs their usual FG% against Nickeil Alexander-Walker and +4.4 against Dennis Schröder.

    The stoppers on threes: Jalen Johnson held shooters 2.7 points under their usual 3P%, Onyeka Okongwu held shooters 1.8 points under their usual 3P%.

    In the sim, Dennis Schröder sees Alexander-Walker on 21% of their shots.

  4. The matchup to watch: Charlotte's ball security vs Atlanta's hands.

    Charlotte turned it over on 14.4% of possessions last season (24th fewest).

    Atlanta forced turnovers on 14.6% (6th most), with 9.4 steals (5th) and 4.7 blocks (18th) a game.

  5. Shot diets.

    Charlotte: 48.7% of shots from three (2nd), 27.8% at the rim (24th).

    Atlanta: 42.9% of shots from three (11th), 30.6% at the rim (13th).

    Charlotte's defense: 19th fewest rim attempts allowed, 18th lowest opponent three-point % (35.9%).

    Atlanta's defense: 26th fewest rim attempts allowed, 12th lowest opponent three-point % (35.5%).

  6. Charlotte's offense runs through Brandon Miller on the pick-and-roll ball handler: 5.0 a game last season, 31st most in the NBA.

    0.93 points per play (top 29%), turnover on 18% of them.

    When it goes to the roller: Charlotte's roll men scored 1.19 (4th in the league). Brandon Miller alone: 1.09.

  7. Atlanta faced 17.5 of those a game (16th most) and ranked 13th defending them. Against the roll man: 5th.

    In the sim: 0.67 Miller-to-Allen baskets a game.

    With 5+ Miller assists, Charlotte wins 66.4%.

  8. Atlanta's offense lives on four plays: spot-up shots, transition, the pick-and-roll ball handler, cuts. It ranked 7th, 16th, 24th, 20th in points per play on them.

    Charlotte's defense ranked 8th, 9th, 24th, 7th against those same four.

  9. Jalen Johnson in one split:

    The pick-and-roll ball handler: 0.77 points per play (bottom 34%), 5.4 a game.

    Transition: 1.21 points per play (top 35%), 4.9 a game.

    Charlotte's defense: 9th against transition, 24th against the pick-and-roll ball handler.

  10. Where Atlanta can hit back:

    • Charlotte was 24th defending the pick-and-roll ball handler. CJ McCollum ran 5.5 a game at 1.05 per play
    • Charlotte was 19th defending isolation. Jalen Johnson ran 1.8 a game at 0.78 per play

  11. One check against real life:

    Brandon Miller scored 24.3 points in his 3 games against Atlanta last season, 31 of them on Feb 11. In our 5,000 sims: 25.9.

    Jalen Johnson scored 30.2 points in his 4 games against Charlotte last season, 43 of them on Dec 18. In our 5,000 sims: 19.1.

  12. Things you'll notice in the sim:

    • Atlanta leads by as many as 6 in the first half; Atlanta leads 63-59 at the break
    • Charlotte's 11-0 run in the 4th quarter is the biggest swing
    • Schröder puts Charlotte ahead for good with 0:00 left in the 4th
    • Schröder finds Allen 3 times
    • Johnson finds Alexander-Walker 3 times
    • Kalkbrenner goes 5 of 7 off Charlotte's bench
    • Charlotte leads by 4 at its high point in the 4th. Atlanta pulls even late. Miller scores last; final 118-114 Charlotte

  13. How Atlanta wins (2,049 of the 5,000):

    • It makes threes: 15.6 a game in its wins, 13.6 in its losses. At 17 or more, it wins 59%
    • It wins the turnover battle: then it wins 48%
    • Johnson scores 24 or more: then it wins 50%

  14. Across all 5,000 sims:

    Charlotte wins 59.0%. The books (Draft Kings) have Charlotte at 44%, ESPN's model at 50%.

    Median score: Charlotte 117, Atlanta 114

    Atlanta covers -2.5 in 36%

    Over 225.5 in 61%

    Leans:

  15. Fine print: one game isn't a prediction. The percentages are the signal.

    Our own backtest (2024-26): the books beat this sim on sides and totals. Prop leans beat the base rate by 1-4 points out of sample, not enough to prove profit. Treat it as a lens, not a bet.

Most typical game, play by play (ATL score first)
Quarter 1
Q1CHAGrayson Allen misses at the rim0-0
Q1ATLJock Landale scores at the rim2-0
Q1CHABrandon Miller goes to the line, makes 2 of 22-2
Q1ATLOnyeka Okongwu misses at the rim2-2
Q1CHAMoussa Diabaté goes to the line, makes 0 of 22-2
Q1ATLCorey Kispert goes to the line, makes 2 of 24-2
Q1CHAGrayson Allen scores three (assist Sion James)4-5
Q1ATLCJ McCollum scores three (assist Dyson Daniels)7-5
Q1CHASion James misses from midrange, offensive rebound7-5
Q1CHADennis Schröder misses three7-5
Q1ATLAaron Wiggins scores at the rim9-5
Q1CHANaz Reid misses at the rim9-5
Q1ATLNickeil Alexander-Walker misses three, offensive rebound9-5
Q1ATLJock Landale goes to the line, makes 2 of 211-5
Q1CHAGrayson Allen scores corner three (assist Dennis Schröder)11-8
Q1ATLRayJ Dennis misses three11-8
Q1CHAChristian Anderson misses in the paint11-8
Q1ATLCorey Kispert misses three, offensive rebound11-8
Q1ATLNickeil Alexander-Walker misses from midrange11-8
Q1CHAGrayson Allen misses corner three11-8
Q1ATLJalen Johnson misses in the paint11-8
Q1CHASion James misses three, offensive rebound11-8
Q1CHABrandon Miller scores corner three (assist Ryan Kalkbrenner)11-11
Q1ATLNickeil Alexander-Walker scores at the rim (assist Jock Landale)13-11
Q1CHANaz Reid turns it over13-11
Q1ATLCJ McCollum scores at the rim15-11
Q1CHABrandon Miller misses three15-11
Q1ATLLuguentz Dort misses three, offensive rebound15-11
Q1ATLCJ McCollum misses from midrange15-11
Q1CHABrandon Miller scores in the paint15-13
Q1ATLCorey Kispert scores in the paint (assist Dyson Daniels)17-13
Q1CHABrandon Miller misses corner three, offensive rebound17-13
Q1CHAMoussa Diabaté goes to the line, makes 2 of 217-15
Q1ATLDorian Finney-Smith scores corner three (assist Keshon Gilbert)20-15
Q1CHABrandon Miller misses at the rim20-15
Q1ATLNickeil Alexander-Walker turns it over20-15
Q1CHABrandon Miller goes to the line, makes 2 of 220-17
Q1ATLJalen Johnson misses three20-17
Q1CHADennis Schröder misses in the paint, offensive rebound20-17
Q1CHAGrayson Allen misses in the paint20-17
Q1ATLOnyeka Okongwu scores at the rim (assist Nickeil Alexander-Walker)22-17
Q1CHANaz Reid scores at the rim22-19
Q1ATLCJ McCollum scores three25-19
Q1CHARyan Kalkbrenner scores at the rim25-21
Q1ATLAaron Wiggins turns it over25-21
Q1CHARoyce O'Neale misses three25-21
Q1ATLDyson Daniels scores at the rim (assist Jalen Johnson)27-21
Q1CHARyan Kalkbrenner scores at the rim27-23
Q1ATLDyson Daniels misses at the rim27-23
Q1CHANaz Reid scores in the paint (assist Royce O'Neale)27-25
Q1ATLOnyeka Okongwu misses at the rim, offensive rebound27-25
Q1ATLJalen Johnson misses from midrange27-25
Q1CHANaz Reid turns it over27-25
Q1ATLNickeil Alexander-Walker scores corner three (assist Jalen Johnson)30-25
Q1CHAGrayson Allen scores three (assist Royce O'Neale)30-28
Q1ATLOnyeka Okongwu misses in the paint30-28
Q1CHADennis Schröder misses in the paint30-28
Q1ATLJalen Johnson misses three30-28
Quarter 2
Q2CHABrandon Miller turns it over30-28
Q2ATLCJ McCollum misses three30-28
Q2CHAGrayson Allen goes to the line, makes 2 of 230-30
Q2ATLOnyeka Okongwu goes to the line, makes 2 of 232-30
Q2CHANaz Reid scores three (assist Dennis Schröder)32-33
Q2ATLRayJ Dennis misses in the paint32-33
Q2CHABrandon Miller misses three, offensive rebound32-33
Q2CHADennis Schröder misses corner three, offensive rebound32-33
Q2CHABrandon Miller turns it over32-33
Q2ATLJalen Johnson misses at the rim, offensive rebound32-33
Q2ATLAaron Wiggins scores in the paint (assist Jalen Johnson)34-33
Q2CHABrandon Miller turns it over34-33
Q2ATLCJ McCollum scores three37-33
Q2CHABrandon Miller misses corner three37-33
Q2ATLJock Landale scores at the rim (assist Dyson Daniels)39-33
Q2CHASion James scores three (assist Grayson Allen)39-36
Q2ATLDyson Daniels misses in the paint39-36
Q2CHAMoussa Diabaté goes to the line, makes 2 of 239-38
Q2ATLNickeil Alexander-Walker scores three (assist Onyeka Okongwu)42-38
Q2CHADennis Schröder misses at the rim42-38
Q2ATLJalen Wilson scores from midrange44-38
Q2CHABrandon Miller turns it over44-38
Q2ATLJalen Johnson misses three44-38
Q2CHABrandon Miller misses three, offensive rebound44-38
Q2CHADennis Schröder misses in the paint, offensive rebound44-38
Q2CHARyan Kalkbrenner scores at the rim (assist Royce O'Neale)44-40
Q2ATLNickeil Alexander-Walker misses from midrange44-40
Q2CHAGrayson Allen scores at the rim (assist Moussa Diabaté)44-42
Q2ATLCJ McCollum scores three (assist Onyeka Okongwu)47-42
Q2CHADennis Schröder scores three47-45
Q2ATLLuguentz Dort scores at the rim (assist Jalen Johnson)49-45
Q2CHANaz Reid turns it over49-45
Q2ATLJalen Johnson scores at the rim (assist Dyson Daniels)51-45
Q2CHARoyce O'Neale goes to the line, makes 2 of 251-47
Q2ATLOnyeka Okongwu scores at the rim53-47
Q2CHARoyce O'Neale scores in the paint (assist Sion James)53-49
Q2ATLNickeil Alexander-Walker turns it over53-49
Q2CHANaz Reid misses in the paint53-49
Q2ATLJalen Johnson turns it over53-49
Q2CHASion James scores at the rim (assist Royce O'Neale)53-51
Q2ATLJock Landale misses three53-51
Q2CHADennis Schröder scores at the rim53-53
Q2ATLDorian Finney-Smith misses corner three53-53
Q2CHABrandon Miller misses corner three53-53
Q2ATLAaron Wiggins scores three (assist Dyson Daniels)56-53
Q2CHAHannes Steinbach misses three56-53
Q2ATLJock Landale misses corner three56-53
Q2CHARyan Kalkbrenner scores at the rim (assist Michael Ajayi)56-55
Q2ATLAaron Wiggins scores in the paint (assist Jalen Johnson)58-55
Q2CHARoyce O'Neale misses three58-55
Q2ATLCJ McCollum scores in the paint60-55
Q2CHARoyce O'Neale misses corner three, offensive rebound60-55
Q2CHABrandon Miller goes to the line, makes 2 of 260-57
Q2ATLAaron Wiggins turns it over60-57
Q2CHARyan Kalkbrenner scores at the rim (assist Dennis Schröder)60-59
Q2ATLJalen Wilson scores corner three (assist CJ McCollum)63-59
Quarter 3
Q3CHATidjane Salaün scores at the rim (assist Dennis Schröder)63-61
Q3ATLKingston Flemings misses three63-61
Q3CHARoyce O'Neale scores in the paint (assist Naz Reid)63-63
Q3ATLCorey Kispert misses three63-63
Q3CHANaz Reid misses three63-63
Q3ATLJalen Wilson misses in the paint, offensive rebound63-63
Q3ATLCJ McCollum turns it over63-63
Q3CHABrandon Miller misses at the rim63-63
Q3ATLDyson Daniels misses three63-63
Q3CHANaz Reid misses in the paint63-63
Q3ATLNickeil Alexander-Walker scores three (assist CJ McCollum)66-63
Q3CHAMoussa Diabaté scores at the rim (assist Naz Reid)66-65
Q3ATLCorey Kispert misses three66-65
Q3CHATidjane Salaün misses three, offensive rebound66-65
Q3CHABrandon Miller misses three66-65
Q3ATLDyson Daniels scores in the paint68-65
Q3CHADennis Schröder goes to the line, makes 1 of 268-66
Q3ATLJalen Johnson misses three68-66
Q3CHANaz Reid misses in the paint68-66
Q3ATLCorey Kispert misses three, offensive rebound68-66
Q3ATLOnyeka Okongwu scores corner three (assist Jalen Johnson)71-66
Q3CHABrandon Miller turns it over71-66
Q3ATLAaron Wiggins misses in the paint71-66
Q3CHABrandon Miller scores three (assist Ryan Kalkbrenner)71-69
Q3ATLDyson Daniels turns it over71-69
Q3CHARoyce O'Neale misses at the rim, offensive rebound71-69
Q3CHADennis Schröder misses at the rim71-69
Q3ATLCJ McCollum goes to the line, makes 1 of 272-69
Q3CHARyan Kalkbrenner misses three72-69
Q3ATLCJ McCollum misses three72-69
Q3CHASion James misses corner three72-69
Q3ATLJalen Johnson misses at the rim72-69
Q3CHANaz Reid scores in the paint72-71
Q3ATLOnyeka Okongwu scores corner three (assist Keshon Gilbert)75-71
Q3CHARoyce O'Neale scores in the paint (assist Naz Reid)75-73
Q3ATLNickeil Alexander-Walker goes to the line, makes 1 of 276-73
Q3CHAGrayson Allen scores in the paint (assist Dennis Schröder)76-75
Q3ATLAaron Wiggins misses corner three76-75
Q3CHAMoussa Diabaté goes to the line, makes 1 of 276-76
Q3ATLNickeil Alexander-Walker scores corner three (assist Jalen Johnson)79-76
Q3CHAGrayson Allen scores three (assist Sion James)79-79
Q3ATLJock Landale scores at the rim81-79
Q3CHANaz Reid scores in the paint81-81
Q3ATLJalen Johnson goes to the line, makes 2 of 283-81
Q3CHAChristian Anderson misses three83-81
Q3ATLJalen Johnson misses in the paint83-81
Q3CHANaz Reid turns it over83-81
Q3ATLAaron Wiggins misses three83-81
Q3CHANaz Reid scores at the rim83-83
Q3ATLNickeil Alexander-Walker scores from midrange (assist Jalen Johnson)85-83
Q3CHARyan Kalkbrenner misses at the rim85-83
Q3ATLZuby Ejiofor scores three (assist Onyeka Okongwu)88-83
Q3CHABrandon Miller misses three, offensive rebound88-83
Q3CHADennis Schröder turns it over88-83
Q3ATLDyson Daniels scores at the rim90-83
Quarter 4
Q4CHANaz Reid misses three90-83
Q4ATLJalen Johnson scores at the rim (assist Keshon Gilbert)92-83
Q4CHANaz Reid goes to the line, makes 2 of 292-85
Q4ATLCJ McCollum misses in the paint92-85
Q4CHANaz Reid misses three92-85
Q4ATLDyson Daniels misses corner three92-85
Q4CHAChristian Anderson misses at the rim92-85
Q4ATLNickeil Alexander-Walker goes to the line, makes 2 of 294-85
Q4CHAChristian Anderson scores corner three (assist Grayson Allen)94-88
Q4ATLDyson Daniels misses at the rim, offensive rebound94-88
Q4ATLNickeil Alexander-Walker misses three94-88
Q4CHAGrayson Allen misses corner three94-88
Q4ATLKeshon Gilbert misses in the paint94-88
Q4CHADennis Schröder misses three94-88
Q4ATLNickeil Alexander-Walker misses three, offensive rebound94-88
Q4ATLOnyeka Okongwu goes to the line, makes 2 of 296-88
Q4CHANaz Reid misses three96-88
Q4ATLJalen Johnson scores from midrange (assist Dyson Daniels)98-88
Q4CHADennis Schröder misses in the paint98-88
Q4ATLCJ McCollum turns it over98-88
Q4CHARoyce O'Neale turns it over98-88
Q4ATLOnyeka Okongwu scores at the rim (assist Jalen Johnson)100-88
Q4CHABrandon Miller scores in the paint100-90
Q4ATLOnyeka Okongwu scores at the rim (assist RayJ Dennis)102-90
Q4CHATidjane Salaün scores at the rim (assist Dennis Schröder)102-92
Q4ATLOnyeka Okongwu goes to the line, makes 2 of 2104-92
Q4CHANaz Reid misses at the rim104-92
Q4ATLCJ McCollum turns it over104-92
Q4CHAGrayson Allen scores three (assist Dennis Schröder)104-95
Q4ATLOnyeka Okongwu misses three104-95
Q4CHADennis Schröder misses at the rim104-95
Q4ATLJock Landale scores at the rim (assist Jalen Johnson)106-95
Q4CHAMichael Ajayi scores at the rim106-97
Q4ATLJalen Johnson turns it over106-97
Q4CHAGrayson Allen scores in the paint (assist Tidjane Salaün)106-99
Q4ATLOnyeka Okongwu misses three106-99
Q4CHARoyce O'Neale scores three (assist Dennis Schröder)106-102
Q4ATLCJ McCollum misses from midrange106-102
Q4CHAMoussa Diabaté misses at the rim, offensive rebound106-102
Q4CHAMoussa Diabaté misses at the rim106-102
Q4ATLCJ McCollum turns it over106-102
Q4CHADennis Schröder goes to the line, makes 2 of 2106-104
Q4ATLZuby Ejiofor misses three, offensive rebound106-104
Q4ATLNickeil Alexander-Walker turns it over106-104
Q4CHABrandon Miller misses three106-104
Q4ATLJock Landale misses three106-104
Q4CHADennis Schröder scores in the paint106-106
Q4ATLKeshon Gilbert scores three (assist Jalen Johnson)109-106
Q4CHALiam McNeeley scores three (assist Hannes Steinbach)109-109
Q4ATLJalen Wilson misses corner three109-109
Q4CHANaz Reid misses in the paint109-109
Q4ATLCJ McCollum misses corner three, offensive rebound109-109
Q4ATLCJ McCollum misses in the paint109-109
Q4CHANaz Reid turns it over109-109
Q4ATLLuguentz Dort misses corner three, offensive rebound109-109
Q4ATLCJ McCollum scores at the rim111-109
Q4CHABrandon Miller misses three111-109
Q4ATLDyson Daniels misses at the rim111-109
Q4CHABrandon Miller scores three (assist Sion James)111-112
Q4ATLCorey Kispert scores at the rim (assist RayJ Dennis), and one114-112
Q4CHABrandon Miller misses from midrange114-112
Q4ATLKingston Flemings misses at the rim114-112
Q4CHAGrayson Allen scores at the rim (assist Liam McNeeley)114-114
Q4ATLAaron Wiggins misses three114-114
Q4CHADennis Schröder scores in the paint (assist Brandon Miller)114-116
Q4ATLLuguentz Dort misses three114-116
Q4CHABrandon Miller scores in the paint114-118
Q4ATLCorey Kispert misses three114-118

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