Chicago @ Milwaukee
Tip-off 1:00 PM PT · Draft Kings lines · 5,000 sims · win chance for MIL
NBA backtest: the books beat this sim on sides and totals; props run slightly above base rates. Details
How the sim saw it
The sim has Milwaukee winning 53.6% of 5,000 games, against 49% from the books. The median score is Milwaukee 123, Chicago 122. In the most typical game: Milwaukee leads by as many as 6 in the first half; Chicago leads 66-63 at the break. Milwaukee's 10-0 run in the 2nd quarter is the biggest swing. Turner puts Milwaukee ahead for good with 2:51 left in the 4th. Rollins finds Turner 3 times. T. Jones goes 5 of 7 off Chicago's bench. Milwaukee leads by 4 at its high point in the 4th. Chicago pulls even late. Buzelis scores last; final 124-122 Milwaukee.
Chicago wins 2,322 of the 5,000. Its chances rise when it makes 18+ threes (it wins 67%), wins the turnover battle (59%) or gets 22+ from Powell (56%). The matchup to watch is Chicago's ball security against Milwaukee's hands. Chicago covers -1.5 in 44% and the game goes over 237.5 in 65%.
Full breakdown
Last time they met (Mar 1), Chicago won in Chicago, 120-97.
Tonight Chicago is without Nic Claxton.
Milwaukee went 32-50 last season (21st best record in the NBA).
Chicago went 31-51 last season (22nd best record in the NBA).
Milwaukee won the season series 3-1.
Pete Nance missed 2 of the 4 meetings.
Milwaukee: gone: Bobby Portis (now MIA), Kevin Porter Jr. (off the league rosters); new: Tyler Herro (from MIA), Jaime Jaquez Jr. (from MIA), Kel'el Ware (from MIA), Caris LeVert (from DET), Kasparas Jakučionis (from MIA), Kam Jones (from IND).
Chicago: gone: Nikola Vučević (now ORL), Ayo Dosunmu (now MIN); new: Caleb Wilson (no NBA minutes last season), Norman Powell (from MIA), Buddy Hield (from GSW), Tobe Awaka (no NBA minutes last season), Jaylin Sellers (no NBA minutes last season), Jordan Hawkins (from NOP), Dailyn Swain (rookie, #15 pick).
Who's in the sim (top five by projected minutes listed first):
MIL: Herro, Rollins, Jaquez, Green, Turner
Bench: Kuzma, Ryan, Ware, Trent, Dieng, Jakučionis, Sims, LeVert, Nance, K. Jones
CHI: Giddey, Wilson, Buzelis, Powell, Okoro
Bench: T. Jones, Collins, Williams, Smith, Awaka, Miller, Hield, Sellers (+2 under 8 min)
Out: Claxton
Maybe: Giddey (90% to play, minutes scaled), Collins (90% to play, minutes scaled), Awaka (90% to play, minutes scaled), Hawkins (50% to play, minutes scaled), Swain (50% to play, minutes scaled)
No NBA history: Swain (#15 pick, 7 min from past rookies)
Who gets hunted: last season shooters hit +5.6 points vs their usual FG% against Norman Powell and +3.9 against Tyler Herro.
The stoppers on threes: Ryan Rollins held shooters 1.1 points under their usual 3P%, Matas Buzelis held shooters 0.2 points under their usual 3P%.
The matchup to watch: Chicago's ball security vs Milwaukee's hands.
Chicago turned it over on 14.0% of possessions last season (21st fewest).
Milwaukee forced turnovers on 12.3% (25th most), with 7.4 steals (26th) and 4.0 blocks (27th) a game.
Shot diets.
Milwaukee: 45.7% of shots from three (5th), 27.1% at the rim (26th).
Chicago: 44.3% of shots from three (8th), 36.7% at the rim (3rd).
Milwaukee's defense: 9th fewest rim attempts allowed, 28th lowest opponent three-point % (37.5%).
Chicago's defense: 28th fewest rim attempts allowed, 23rd lowest opponent three-point % (36.8%).
Milwaukee's offense runs through Ryan Rollins on the pick-and-roll ball handler: 7.0 a game last season, 16th most in the NBA.
0.89 points per play (top 40%), turnover on 16% of them.
When it goes to the roller: Milwaukee's roll men scored 1.18 (5th in the league). Myles Turner alone: 1.13.
Chicago faced 16.4 of those a game (22nd most) and ranked 10th defending them. Against the roll man: 26th.
In the sim: 0.80 Rollins-to-Herro baskets a game.
With 6+ Rollins assists, Milwaukee wins 60.5%.
Chicago's offense lives on four plays: spot-up shots, transition, the pick-and-roll ball handler, the roll man. It ranked 19th, 15th, 21st, 24th in points per play on them.
Milwaukee's defense ranked 26th, 16th, 19th, 27th against those same four.
Norman Powell in one split:
Isolation: 1.18 points per play (top 5%), 1.8 a game.
Spot-up shots: 1.06 points per play (top 44%), 6.6 a game.
Milwaukee's defense: 26th against spot-up shots, 20th against isolation.
Where Chicago can hit back:
- Milwaukee was 27th defending the roll man. Jalen Smith ran 1.9 a game at 1.15 per play
- Milwaukee was 27th defending handoffs. Josh Giddey ran 0.9 a game at 1.00 per play
One check against real life:
Ryan Rollins scored 18.0 points in his 4 games against Chicago last season, 21 of them on Feb 3. In our 5,000 sims: 15.5.
Things you'll notice in the sim:
- Milwaukee leads by as many as 6 in the first half; Chicago leads 66-63 at the break
- Milwaukee's 10-0 run in the 2nd quarter is the biggest swing
- Turner puts Milwaukee ahead for good with 2:51 left in the 4th
- Rollins finds Turner 3 times
- T. Jones goes 5 of 7 off Chicago's bench
- Milwaukee leads by 4 at its high point in the 4th. Chicago pulls even late. Buzelis scores last; final 124-122 Milwaukee
How Chicago wins (2,322 of the 5,000):
- It makes threes: 16.4 a game in its wins, 14.1 in its losses. At 18 or more, it wins 67%
- It wins the turnover battle: then it wins 59%
- Powell scores 22 or more: then it wins 56%
Across all 5,000 sims:
Milwaukee wins 53.6%. The books (Draft Kings) have Milwaukee at 49%, ESPN's model at 57%.
Median score: Milwaukee 123, Chicago 122
Chicago covers -1.5 in 44%
Over 237.5 in 65%
Leans:
Biggest role disagreements (new to the team or the league, the books see a different role): Kasparas Jakučionis points line 7.5, sim 4.1; Caleb Wilson rebounds line 6.5, sim 4.5; Kasparas Jakučionis threes line 1.5, sim 0.7
Caution: tonight the sim sits 1.4 under the books' prop lines on average, so unders are inflated
- Jalen Smith under 20.5 pts+reb (95%, sim avg 11.8)
- Leonard Miller under 15.5 pts+reb (94%, sim avg 8.7)
- Leonard Miller under 5.5 rebounds (94%, sim avg 2.8)
- Jalen Smith under 7.5 rebounds (92%, sim avg 4.5)
Fine print: one game isn't a prediction. The percentages are the signal.
Our own backtest (2024-26): the books beat this sim on sides and totals. Prop leans beat the base rate by 1-4 points out of sample, not enough to prove profit. Treat it as a lens, not a bet.
Most typical game, play by play (CHI score first)
Top 10 prop ideas
No prop ideas logged for this game: not enough props were posted before tip-off.
All player props
Sorted by how far the sim sits from 50%. Players new to their team are tagged: the sim is least sure about their role.
| Player | Market | Line | Sim avg | Sim over | Lean | Sim + you |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Smith | pts+reb | 20.5 | 11.8 | 5% | under 95% | |
| Leonard Miller | pts+reb | 15.5 | 8.7 | 6% | under 94% | |
| Leonard Miller | rebounds | 5.5 | 2.8 | 6% | under 94% | |
| Jalen Smith | rebounds | 7.5 | 4.5 | 8% | under 92% | |
| Leonard Miller | threes | 1.5 | 0.6 | 11% | under 89% | |
| Jalen Smith | points | 12.5 | 7.4 | 11% | under 89% | |
| Kasparas Jakučionisnew team | points | 7.5 | 4.1 | 15% | under 85% | |
| Leonard Miller | points | 9.5 | 5.9 | 16% | under 84% | |
| Caleb Wilsonnew team | rebounds | 6.5 | 4.5 | 17% | under 83% | |
| Kasparas Jakučionisnew team | threes | 1.5 | 0.7 | 17% | under 83% | |
| Kel'el Warenew team | rebounds | 7.5 | 5.5 | 19% | under 81% | |
| Jaime Jaquez Jr.new team | pts+reb | 21.5 | 16.9 | 20% | under 80% | |
| Norman Powellnew team | pts+reb | 24.5 | 19.5 | 22% | under 78% | |
| Norman Powellnew team | points | 21.5 | 16.9 | 23% | under 77% | |
| Jaime Jaquez Jr.new team | rebounds | 5.5 | 4.1 | 23% | under 77% | |
| Tyler Herronew team | assists | 5.5 | 4.2 | 25% | under 75% | |
| Kel'el Warenew team | points | 9.5 | 7.2 | 26% | under 74% | |
| Myles Turner | rebounds | 5.5 | 4.4 | 27% | under 73% | |
| Tyler Herronew team | pts+ast | 28.5 | 24.4 | 27% | under 73% | |
| Jalen Smith | threes | 1.5 | 1.0 | 28% | under 72% | |
| Jaime Jaquez Jr.new team | points | 15.5 | 12.8 | 28% | under 72% | |
| Kyle Kuzma | rebounds | 4.5 | 3.6 | 29% | under 71% | |
| Matas Buzelis | pts+reb | 21.5 | 18.6 | 30% | under 70% | |
| Matas Buzelis | points | 16.5 | 13.9 | 30% | under 70% | |
| Tyler Herronew team | pts+reb | 27.5 | 24.1 | 31% | under 69% | |
| Jaime Jaquez Jr.new team | pts+ast | 19.5 | 17.0 | 31% | under 69% | |
| Matas Buzelis | rebounds | 5.5 | 4.7 | 32% | under 68% | |
| Matas Buzelis | threes | 2.5 | 2.0 | 33% | under 67% | |
| Myles Turner | pts+reb | 16.5 | 14.5 | 33% | under 67% | |
| Kyle Kuzma | threes | 1.5 | 1.2 | 33% | under 67% | |
| Ryan Rollins | threes | 1.5 | 2.3 | 66% | over 66% | |
| Ryan Rollins | rebounds | 4.5 | 3.9 | 34% | under 66% | |
| Caleb Wilsonnew team | pts+reb | 23.5 | 21.3 | 35% | under 65% | |
| Ryan Rollins | pts+reb | 21.5 | 19.4 | 35% | under 65% | |
| Tyler Herronew team | points | 22.5 | 20.2 | 35% | under 65% | |
| Josh Giddey | pts+ast | 22.5 | 25.0 | 65% | over 65% | |
| Ryan Rollins | pts+ast | 22.5 | 20.3 | 35% | under 65% | |
| Tre Jones | assists | 3.5 | 4.4 | 64% | over 64% | |
| Ryan Rollins | points | 17.5 | 15.5 | 36% | under 64% | |
| Tyler Herronew team | rebounds | 4.5 | 3.9 | 36% | under 64% | |
| Myles Turner | points | 11.5 | 10.1 | 37% | under 63% | |
| Norman Powellnew team | threes | 2.5 | 2.3 | 39% | under 61% | |
| Josh Giddey | pts+reb | 20.5 | 22.5 | 60% | over 60% | |
| Josh Giddey | points | 13.5 | 15.3 | 60% | over 60% | |
| Jaime Jaquez Jr.new team | assists | 4.5 | 4.2 | 41% | under 59% | |
| Tre Jones | pts+ast | 12.5 | 13.9 | 59% | over 59% | |
| Jaime Jaquez Jr.new team | threes | 0.5 | 0.9 | 59% | over 59% | |
| Kyle Kuzma | pts+reb | 15.5 | 14.7 | 41% | under 59% | |
| Caleb Wilsonnew team | threes | 1.5 | 1.9 | 57% | over 57% | |
| Josh Giddey | rebounds | 7.5 | 7.3 | 43% | under 57% | |
| Caleb Wilsonnew team | points | 17.5 | 16.8 | 44% | under 56% | |
| Caleb Wilsonnew team | assists | 2.5 | 2.4 | 44% | under 56% | |
| Tre Jones | points | 8.5 | 9.5 | 55% | over 55% | |
| Caleb Wilsonnew team | pts+ast | 19.5 | 19.2 | 47% | under 53% | |
| Kel'el Warenew team | threes | 0.5 | 0.7 | 53% | over 53% | |
| Myles Turner | threes | 1.5 | 1.6 | 47% | under 53% | |
| Tyler Herronew team | threes | 2.5 | 2.8 | 53% | over 53% | |
| Ryan Rollins | assists | 4.5 | 4.8 | 52% | over 52% | |
| Josh Giddey | assists | 9.5 | 9.7 | 51% | over 51% | |
| Josh Giddey | threes | 1.5 | 1.7 | 51% | over 51% | |
| Norman Powellnew team | rebounds | 2.5 | 2.7 | 50% | under 50% |