Gametime

Dallas @ Indiana

Tip-off 4:00 PM PT · Draft Kings lines · 5,000 sims · win chance for IND

Sim
63%
Books
66%
ESPN model
69%
Median score
121-126
DAL - IND
IND -6.5
49%
sim cover rate
Total 237.5
70%
over · sim avg 248
Moneyline
-225
IND · DAL +185

NBA backtest: the books beat this sim on sides and totals; props run slightly above base rates. Details

How the sim saw it

The sim has Indiana winning 63.4% of 5,000 games, against 66% from the books. The median score is Indiana 126, Dallas 121. In the most typical game: Indiana leads by as many as 32 in the first half; Indiana leads 75-55 at the break. Indiana's 12-0 run in the 3rd quarter is the biggest swing. Nembhard puts Indiana ahead for good with 10:36 left in the 1st. Irving finds Risacher 3 times. Risacher goes 6 of 9 off Dallas's bench. Indiana leads by 17 at its high point in the 4th. Dallas gets within 6. Clayton scores last; final 127-121 Indiana.

Dallas wins 1,831 of the 5,000. Its chances rise when it makes 15+ threes (it wins 56%), wins the turnover battle (51%) or gets 32+ from Irving (50%). The matchup to watch is Dallas's ball security against Indiana's hands. Indiana covers -6.5 in 49% and the game goes over 237.5 in 70%.

Full breakdown

  1. Last time they met (Feb 22), Dallas won in Indiana, 134-130.

    Tonight Indiana is without Johnny Furphy and T.J. McConnell.

    Tonight Dallas is without Santi Aldama and Dereck Lively II.

    Indiana went 19-63 last season (29th best record in the NBA).

    Dallas went 26-56 last season (23rd best record in the NBA).

    Dallas won the season series 2-0.

    Indiana: gone: Micah Potter (now POR); new: Tyrese Haliburton (no NBA minutes last season), Kelly Oubre Jr. (from PHI), Ivica Zubac (from LAC), Larry Nance Jr. (from CLE), Braden Smith (rookie, #38 pick).

    Dallas: gone: Klay Thompson (now MIA), Brandon Williams (now GSW), Ryan Nembhard (now DEN); new: Kyrie Irving (no NBA minutes last season), Zaccharie Risacher (from ATL), Walter Clayton Jr. (from UTA), Morez Johnson Jr. (no NBA minutes last season), Marcus Sasser (from DET), Jett Howard (from ORL), Tobi Lawal (rookie, #48 pick), Sergio de Larrea (no NBA minutes last season).

  2. Who's in the sim (top five by projected minutes listed first):

    IND: Haliburton, Siakam, Nembhard, Oubre, Zubac

    Bench: Walker, Slawson, Nesmith, Huff, Toppin, Jackson, Sheppard, Brown (+2 under 8 min)

    Out: Furphy, McConnell

    Maybe: Nesmith (50% to play, minutes scaled), Sheppard (50% to play, minutes scaled)

    No NBA history: Smith (#38 pick, 3 min from past rookies)

    DAL: Irving, Flagg, Washington, Marshall, Christie

    Bench: Risacher, Gafford, Clayton, Johnson, Sasser, Cisse (+3 under 8 min)

    Out: Aldama, Biberović, Lively, Martin

    Maybe: Howard (20% to play, minutes scaled)

    No NBA history: Lawal (#48 pick, 4 min from past rookies)

  3. Who gets hunted: last season shooters hit +4.1 points vs their usual FG% against Andrew Nembhard and +1.8 against Naji Marshall.

    The stoppers on threes: Naji Marshall held shooters 2.9 points under their usual 3P%, Kelly Oubre Jr. held shooters 1.8 points under their usual 3P%.

    In the sim, Max Christie sees Nembhard on 23% of their shots.

  4. The matchup to watch: Dallas's ball security vs Indiana's hands.

    Dallas turned it over on 13.4% of possessions last season (13th fewest).

    Indiana forced turnovers on 12.4% (23rd most), with 7.4 steals (27th) and 4.6 blocks (19th) a game.

  5. Shot diets.

    Indiana: 42.2% of shots from three (14th), 28.9% at the rim (22nd).

    Dallas: 35.5% of shots from three (27th), 31.0% at the rim (11th).

    Indiana's defense: 27th fewest rim attempts allowed, 14th lowest opponent three-point % (35.5%).

    Dallas's defense: 22nd fewest rim attempts allowed, 6th lowest opponent three-point % (35.0%).

  6. Indiana's offense runs through Andrew Nembhard on the pick-and-roll ball handler: 6.7 a game last season, 18th most in the NBA.

    0.94 points per play (top 28%), turnover on 13% of them.

    When it goes to the roller: Indiana's roll men scored 1.13 (12th in the league). Ivica Zubac alone: 0.98.

  7. Dallas faced 18.4 of those a game (11th most) and ranked 17th defending them. Against the roll man: 20th.

    In the sim: 1.23 Nembhard-to-Siakam baskets a game (last season: 2.33).

    With 8+ Nembhard assists, Indiana wins 69.5%.

  8. Dallas's offense lives on four plays: spot-up shots, transition, the pick-and-roll ball handler, isolation. It ranked 27th, 2nd, 25th, 26th in points per play on them.

    Indiana's defense ranked 21st, 24th, 30th, 29th against those same four.

  9. Where Dallas can hit back:

    • Indiana was 30th defending the pick-and-roll ball handler. Cooper Flagg ran 6.5 a game at 0.82 per play
    • Indiana was 29th defending isolation. Cooper Flagg ran 3.1 a game at 0.87 per play

  10. One check against real life:

    Andrew Nembhard scored 22 in his one game against Dallas last season. In our 5,000 sims: 12.6.

  11. Things you'll notice in the sim:

    • Indiana leads by as many as 32 in the first half; Indiana leads 75-55 at the break
    • Indiana's 12-0 run in the 3rd quarter is the biggest swing
    • Nembhard puts Indiana ahead for good with 10:36 left in the 1st
    • Irving finds Risacher 3 times
    • Risacher goes 6 of 9 off Dallas's bench
    • Indiana leads by 17 at its high point in the 4th. Dallas gets within 6. Clayton scores last; final 127-121 Indiana

  12. How Dallas wins (1,831 of the 5,000):

    • It makes threes: 13.1 a game in its wins, 11.3 in its losses. At 15 or more, it wins 56%
    • It wins the turnover battle: then it wins 51%
    • Irving scores 32 or more: then it wins 50%

  13. Across all 5,000 sims:

    Indiana wins 63.4%. The books (Draft Kings) have Indiana at 66%, ESPN's model at 69%.

    Median score: Indiana 126, Dallas 121

    Indiana covers -6.5 in 49%

    Over 237.5 in 70%

    Leans:

    • Cooper Flagg under 1.5 threes (62%, sim avg 1.3)
    • Cooper Flagg over 6.5 rebounds (55%, sim avg 7.0)
    • Cooper Flagg over 30.5 pts+reb (55%, sim avg 31.6)
    • Cooper Flagg under 30.5 pts+ast (54%, sim avg 30.1)

  14. Fine print: one game isn't a prediction. The percentages are the signal.

    Our own backtest (2024-26): the books beat this sim on sides and totals. Prop leans beat the base rate by 1-4 points out of sample, not enough to prove profit. Treat it as a lens, not a bet.

Most typical game, play by play (DAL score first)
Quarter 1
Q1INDIvica Zubac scores at the rim0-2
Q1DALNaji Marshall goes to the line, makes 2 of 22-2
Q1INDTyrese Haliburton turns it over2-2
Q1DALCooper Flagg scores at the rim4-2
Q1INDTyrese Haliburton misses at the rim4-2
Q1DALKyrie Irving misses three4-2
Q1INDAndrew Nembhard scores three (assist Tyrese Haliburton)4-5
Q1DALKyrie Irving misses in the paint4-5
Q1INDTyrese Haliburton scores three4-8
Q1DALKyrie Irving misses three4-8
Q1INDAaron Nesmith misses at the rim, offensive rebound4-8
Q1INDKelly Oubre Jr. misses corner three4-8
Q1DALKyrie Irving scores in the paint6-8
Q1INDPascal Siakam misses three, offensive rebound6-8
Q1INDAndrew Nembhard turns it over6-8
Q1DALWalter Clayton Jr. misses at the rim6-8
Q1INDKelly Oubre Jr. scores at the rim (assist Tyrese Haliburton)6-10
Q1DALZaccharie Risacher scores corner three (assist Kyrie Irving)9-10
Q1INDPascal Siakam scores corner three (assist Andrew Nembhard)9-13
Q1DALNaji Marshall misses in the paint9-13
Q1INDAndrew Nembhard misses three9-13
Q1DALZaccharie Risacher misses at the rim, offensive rebound9-13
Q1DALP.J. Washington misses three9-13
Q1INDTyrese Haliburton misses three9-13
Q1DALZaccharie Risacher misses three9-13
Q1INDAndrew Nembhard misses corner three9-13
Q1DALZaccharie Risacher misses three9-13
Q1INDPascal Siakam misses three9-13
Q1DALCooper Flagg misses three9-13
Q1INDKobe Brown scores corner three (assist Andrew Nembhard)9-16
Q1DALCooper Flagg scores three (assist Naji Marshall)12-16
Q1INDBen Sheppard goes to the line, makes 2 of 212-18
Q1DALCooper Flagg misses at the rim12-18
Q1INDJarace Walker turns it over12-18
Q1DALKyrie Irving misses from midrange12-18
Q1INDPascal Siakam scores from midrange12-20
Q1DALCooper Flagg misses three12-20
Q1INDPascal Siakam scores from midrange (assist Tyrese Haliburton)12-22
Q1DALCooper Flagg misses from midrange12-22
Q1INDPascal Siakam scores in the paint12-24
Q1DALDaniel Gafford turns it over12-24
Q1INDBen Sheppard scores three (assist Tyrese Haliburton)12-27
Q1DALCooper Flagg scores from midrange (assist Zaccharie Risacher)14-27
Q1INDPascal Siakam scores in the paint, and one14-30
Q1DALCooper Flagg misses in the paint14-30
Q1INDTyrese Haliburton scores three (assist Obi Toppin)14-33
Q1DALDaniel Gafford goes to the line, makes 0 of 214-33
Q1INDKelly Oubre Jr. scores three (assist Andrew Nembhard)14-36
Q1DALP.J. Washington misses in the paint14-36
Q1INDAaron Nesmith misses at the rim14-36
Q1DALKyrie Irving scores corner three (assist Daniel Gafford)17-36
Q1INDKelly Oubre Jr. scores at the rim17-38
Q1DALNaji Marshall misses three17-38
Q1INDJay Huff scores at the rim (assist Pascal Siakam)17-40
Q1DALWalter Clayton Jr. misses corner three17-40
Quarter 2
Q2INDPascal Siakam scores from midrange (assist Tyrese Haliburton)17-42
Q2DALKyrie Irving scores at the rim19-42
Q2INDQuenton Jackson turns it over19-42
Q2DALWalter Clayton Jr. misses corner three19-42
Q2INDAndrew Nembhard misses in the paint19-42
Q2DALWalter Clayton Jr. misses three, offensive rebound19-42
Q2DALKyrie Irving scores from midrange21-42
Q2INDQuenton Jackson scores three (assist Jarace Walker)21-45
Q2DALNaji Marshall misses corner three21-45
Q2INDKobe Brown scores corner three (assist Jalen Slawson)21-48
Q2DALKyrie Irving scores three24-48
Q2INDKelly Oubre Jr. scores three (assist Jarace Walker)24-51
Q2DALCooper Flagg misses in the paint24-51
Q2INDAndrew Nembhard misses in the paint24-51
Q2DALKyrie Irving misses three24-51
Q2INDPascal Siakam scores at the rim24-53
Q2DALMorez Johnson Jr. scores corner three (assist Naji Marshall)27-53
Q2INDPascal Siakam misses corner three27-53
Q2DALZaccharie Risacher scores at the rim (assist Naji Marshall)29-53
Q2INDObi Toppin scores from midrange (assist Kelly Oubre Jr.)29-55
Q2DALCooper Flagg scores at the rim31-55
Q2INDKelly Oubre Jr. scores at the rim (assist Aaron Nesmith)31-57
Q2DALDaniel Gafford misses in the paint31-57
Q2INDAaron Nesmith goes to the line, makes 2 of 231-59
Q2DALMorez Johnson Jr. misses three31-59
Q2INDPascal Siakam scores at the rim31-61
Q2DALMorez Johnson Jr. misses in the paint31-61
Q2INDTyrese Haliburton scores in the paint31-63
Q2DALZaccharie Risacher scores three (assist Kyrie Irving)34-63
Q2INDKelly Oubre Jr. goes to the line, makes 2 of 234-65
Q2DALNaji Marshall scores in the paint36-65
Q2INDTyrese Haliburton misses at the rim36-65
Q2DALWalter Clayton Jr. misses three, offensive rebound36-65
Q2DALKyrie Irving misses at the rim, offensive rebound36-65
Q2DALNaji Marshall scores in the paint38-65
Q2INDObi Toppin scores at the rim38-67
Q2DALKyrie Irving scores three41-67
Q2INDQuenton Jackson misses in the paint, offensive rebound41-67
Q2INDJarace Walker scores from midrange41-69
Q2DALP.J. Washington turns it over41-69
Q2INDTyrese Haliburton misses three41-69
Q2DALKyrie Irving scores in the paint (assist Cooper Flagg)43-69
Q2INDObi Toppin scores at the rim (assist Andrew Nembhard)43-71
Q2DALMax Christie misses in the paint43-71
Q2INDPascal Siakam goes to the line, makes 2 of 243-73
Q2DALKyrie Irving goes to the line, makes 2 of 245-73
Q2INDQuenton Jackson turns it over45-73
Q2DALCooper Flagg scores at the rim47-73
Q2INDIvica Zubac turns it over47-73
Q2DALKyrie Irving scores from midrange49-73
Q2INDJay Huff misses three49-73
Q2DALP.J. Washington goes to the line, makes 2 of 251-73
Q2INDIvica Zubac turns it over51-73
Q2DALKyrie Irving scores from midrange53-73
Q2INDAndrew Nembhard scores in the paint53-75
Q2DALZaccharie Risacher scores in the paint (assist Kyrie Irving)55-75
Quarter 3
Q3INDQuenton Jackson turns it over55-75
Q3DALKyrie Irving scores in the paint57-75
Q3INDQuenton Jackson turns it over57-75
Q3DALP.J. Washington scores corner three (assist Daniel Gafford)60-75
Q3INDPascal Siakam misses three60-75
Q3DALMarcus Sasser misses in the paint60-75
Q3INDLarry Nance Jr. scores three (assist Obi Toppin)60-78
Q3DALNaji Marshall misses in the paint60-78
Q3INDPascal Siakam scores at the rim (assist Andrew Nembhard)60-80
Q3DALCooper Flagg misses three60-80
Q3INDKelly Oubre Jr. scores corner three (assist Tyrese Haliburton)60-83
Q3DALMax Christie misses in the paint60-83
Q3INDJalen Slawson scores three (assist Ben Sheppard), and one60-87
Q3DALSergio de Larrea scores in the paint (assist Zaccharie Risacher)62-87
Q3INDKelly Oubre Jr. scores at the rim (assist Aaron Nesmith), and one62-90
Q3DALMax Christie scores three (assist Cooper Flagg)65-90
Q3INDPascal Siakam misses in the paint65-90
Q3DALNaji Marshall misses from midrange65-90
Q3INDKelly Oubre Jr. scores corner three (assist Quenton Jackson)65-93
Q3DALMax Christie scores in the paint67-93
Q3INDJarace Walker misses three67-93
Q3DALSergio de Larrea goes to the line, makes 2 of 269-93
Q3INDIvica Zubac misses at the rim69-93
Q3DALMax Christie turns it over69-93
Q3INDAaron Nesmith scores three (assist Tyrese Haliburton)69-96
Q3DALKyrie Irving misses three, offensive rebound69-96
Q3DALJett Howard goes to the line, makes 2 of 271-96
Q3INDBen Sheppard misses at the rim71-96
Q3DALNaji Marshall scores at the rim73-96
Q3INDTyrese Haliburton misses three73-96
Q3DALP.J. Washington goes to the line, makes 2 of 275-96
Q3INDIvica Zubac scores at the rim75-98
Q3DALMax Christie goes to the line, makes 2 of 277-98
Q3INDAndrew Nembhard misses three77-98
Q3DALDaniel Gafford scores at the rim (assist Kyrie Irving)79-98
Q3INDQuenton Jackson scores at the rim79-100
Q3DALMax Christie misses three79-100
Q3INDPascal Siakam goes to the line, makes 2 of 279-102
Q3DALWalter Clayton Jr. misses at the rim79-102
Q3INDKobe Brown scores at the rim79-104
Q3DALCooper Flagg scores three (assist Kyrie Irving)82-104
Q3INDPascal Siakam misses from midrange82-104
Q3DALP.J. Washington scores at the rim84-104
Q3INDQuenton Jackson misses three84-104
Q3DALZaccharie Risacher scores in the paint (assist Moussa Cisse)86-104
Q3INDKobe Brown misses three86-104
Q3DALMax Christie misses three86-104
Q3INDAndrew Nembhard misses corner three86-104
Q3DALMarcus Sasser scores from midrange88-104
Q3INDJarace Walker scores from midrange (assist Andrew Nembhard)88-106
Q3DALP.J. Washington scores corner three (assist Daniel Gafford)91-106
Q3INDLarry Nance Jr. misses from midrange91-106
Q3DALWalter Clayton Jr. turns it over91-106
Quarter 4
Q4INDJay Huff scores in the paint (assist Jalen Slawson)91-108
Q4DALKyrie Irving scores three (assist Daniel Gafford)94-108
Q4INDPascal Siakam misses in the paint94-108
Q4DALDaniel Gafford scores at the rim (assist Walter Clayton Jr.)96-108
Q4INDJarace Walker misses in the paint, offensive rebound96-108
Q4INDKelly Oubre Jr. turns it over96-108
Q4DALDaniel Gafford scores at the rim (assist Naji Marshall)98-108
Q4INDBraden Smith goes to the line, makes 1 of 298-109
Q4DALZaccharie Risacher scores three (assist Naji Marshall)101-109
Q4INDJalen Slawson turns it over101-109
Q4DALNaji Marshall scores three (assist Zaccharie Risacher)104-109
Q4INDJalen Slawson scores at the rim (assist Andrew Nembhard)104-111
Q4DALDaniel Gafford scores at the rim (assist Moussa Cisse), and one107-111
Q4INDAaron Nesmith misses at the rim107-111
Q4DALNaji Marshall scores at the rim109-111
Q4INDTyrese Haliburton scores in the paint (assist Pascal Siakam)109-113
Q4DALNaji Marshall turns it over109-113
Q4INDKobe Brown scores at the rim (assist Pascal Siakam)109-115
Q4DALMax Christie turns it over109-115
Q4INDPascal Siakam goes to the line, makes 2 of 2109-117
Q4DALNaji Marshall turns it over109-117
Q4INDKelly Oubre Jr. misses at the rim109-117
Q4DALMoussa Cisse goes to the line, makes 1 of 2110-117
Q4INDAndrew Nembhard misses from midrange110-117
Q4DALCooper Flagg misses at the rim110-117
Q4INDTyrese Haliburton goes to the line, makes 2 of 2110-119
Q4DALCooper Flagg scores in the paint (assist Daniel Gafford)112-119
Q4INDPascal Siakam scores three (assist Kelly Oubre Jr.)112-122
Q4DALP.J. Washington turns it over112-122
Q4INDKobe Brown misses three112-122
Q4DALMorez Johnson Jr. misses at the rim, offensive rebound112-122
Q4DALMax Christie misses three112-122
Q4INDPascal Siakam turns it over112-122
Q4DALNaji Marshall misses in the paint112-122
Q4INDObi Toppin scores three (assist Ben Sheppard)112-125
Q4DALMarcus Sasser goes to the line, makes 1 of 2113-125
Q4INDPascal Siakam misses in the paint, offensive rebound113-125
Q4INDTyrese Haliburton misses three113-125
Q4DALKyrie Irving scores from midrange (assist Cooper Flagg)115-125
Q4INDIvica Zubac turns it over115-125
Q4DALWalter Clayton Jr. scores in the paint (assist Cooper Flagg)117-125
Q4INDKelly Oubre Jr. misses in the paint117-125
Q4DALP.J. Washington turns it over117-125
Q4INDQuenton Jackson misses corner three117-125
Q4DALNaji Marshall scores in the paint119-125
Q4INDAndrew Nembhard misses three, offensive rebound119-125
Q4INDPascal Siakam scores at the rim (assist Aaron Nesmith)119-127
Q4DALKyrie Irving turns it over119-127
Q4INDJay Huff misses corner three119-127
Q4DALP.J. Washington misses at the rim119-127
Q4INDPascal Siakam misses three119-127
Q4DALWalter Clayton Jr. goes to the line, makes 2 of 2121-127

Top 10 prop ideas

No prop ideas logged for this game: not enough props were posted before tip-off.

All player props

Sorted by how far the sim sits from 50%. Players new to their team are tagged: the sim is least sure about their role.

PlayerMarketLineSim avgSim overLeanSim + you
Cooper Flaggthrees1.51.338%under 62%
Cooper Flaggrebounds6.57.055%over 55%
Cooper Flaggpts+reb30.531.655%over 55%
Cooper Flaggpts+ast30.530.146%under 54%
Cooper Flaggassists5.55.447%under 53%
Cooper Flaggpoints24.524.650%under 50%