Detroit @ Miami
Tip-off 5:00 PM PT · Draft Kings lines · 5,000 sims · win chance for DET
NBA backtest: the books beat this sim on sides and totals; props run slightly above base rates. Details
How the sim saw it
The sim has Detroit winning 64.2% of 5,000 games, against 50% from the books. The median score is Miami 115, Detroit 120. In the most typical game: Detroit leads by as many as 10 in the first half; Miami leads 50-49 at the break. Detroit's 10-0 run in the 1st quarter is the biggest swing. Jenkins puts Detroit ahead for good with 11:25 left in the 4th. Mitchell finds Adebayo 4 times. Joe goes 4 of 9 off Detroit's bench. Detroit leads by 13 at its high point in the 4th. Miami gets within 1. Duren scores last; final 121-115 Detroit.
Miami wins 1,789 of the 5,000. Its chances rise when it makes 15+ threes (it wins 56%), wins the turnover battle (49%) or gets 30+ from Antetokounmpo (45%). The matchup to watch is Miami's ball security against Detroit's hands. Miami covers -1.5 in 33% and the game goes over 237.5 in 46%.
Full breakdown
Last time they met (Mar 8), Miami won in Miami, 121-110.
Miami went 43-39 last season (17th best record in the NBA).
Detroit went 60-22 last season (3rd best record in the NBA).
Miami won the season series 2-1.
Simone Fontecchio missed 2 of the 3 meetings.
Myron Gardner missed 2 of the 3 meetings.
Miami: gone: Jaime Jaquez Jr. (now MIL), Norman Powell (now CHI), Kel'el Ware (now MIL); new: Giannis Antetokounmpo (from MIL), Tim Hardaway Jr. (from DEN), Bobby Portis Jr. (from MIL), Klay Thompson (from DAL), Nick Richards (from CHI), Tre Donaldson (no NBA minutes last season).
Detroit: gone: Tobias Harris (now SAS); new: John Collins (from LAC), Taurean Prince (from MIL), Elijah Harkless (from UTA), Kevin Huerter (from CHI), Isaiah Joe (from OKC), Ebuka Okorie (rookie, #17 pick).
Who's in the sim (top five by projected minutes listed first):
MIA: Adebayo, Wiggins, Mitchell, Antetokounmpo, Larsson
Bench: Hardaway, Portis, K. Thompson, Jović, D. Smith, Fontecchio, Richards (+3 under 8 min)
No NBA history: Donaldson (undrafted, 2 min from past rookies)
DET: Cunningham, Duren, Robinson, A. Thompson, Collins
Bench: Prince, Huerter, Joe, Jenkins, Harkless, Holland, Green, Reed (+2 under 8 min)
Maybe: Prince (90% to play, minutes scaled)
No NBA history: Okorie (#17 pick, 8 min from past rookies)
Who gets hunted: last season shooters hit +1.8 points vs their usual FG% against Tim Hardaway Jr. and +1.2 against Davion Mitchell.
The stoppers on threes: Cade Cunningham held shooters 4.8 points under their usual 3P%, John Collins held shooters 1.7 points under their usual 3P%.
In the sim, John Collins sees Hardaway on 16% of their shots.
The matchup to watch: Miami's ball security vs Detroit's hands.
Miami turned it over on 12.4% of possessions last season (5th fewest).
Detroit forced turnovers on 15.7% (most), with 10.4 steals (1st) and 6.4 blocks (1st) a game.
Shot diets.
Miami: 40.6% of shots from three (18th), 31.0% at the rim (12th).
Detroit: 34.5% of shots from three (29th), 37.7% at the rim (2nd).
Miami's defense: 12th fewest rim attempts allowed, 17th lowest opponent three-point % (35.9%).
Detroit's defense: 7th fewest rim attempts allowed, lowest opponent three-point % (34.5%).
Detroit's offense runs through Cade Cunningham on the pick-and-roll ball handler: 8.9 a game last season, 3rd most in the NBA.
0.93 points per play (top 30%), turnover on 16% of them.
When it goes to the roller: Detroit's roll men scored 1.21 (3rd in the league). Jalen Duren alone: 1.45.
Miami faced 17.2 of those a game (17th most) and ranked 23rd defending them. Against the roll man: 9th.
In the sim: 1.39 Cunningham-to-Duren baskets a game (last season: 2.42).
With 11+ Cunningham assists, Detroit wins 73.4%.
Miami's offense lives on four plays: spot-up shots, transition, isolation, putbacks. It ranked 15th, 23rd, 9th, 16th in points per play on them.
Detroit's defense ranked 1st, 2nd, 5th, 19th against those same four.
Giannis Antetokounmpo in one split:
Cuts: 1.32 points per play (top 45%), 2.0 a game.
Transition: 1.27 points per play (top 22%), 6.3 a game.
Detroit's defense: 2nd against transition, 19th against cuts.
Where Miami can hit back:
- Detroit was 23rd defending off-screen shots. Klay Thompson ran 3.0 a game at 0.97 per play
- Detroit was 19th defending cuts. Giannis Antetokounmpo ran 2.0 a game at 1.32 per play
One check against real life:
Cade Cunningham scored 28.7 points in his 3 games against Miami last season, 31 of them on Jan 1. In our 5,000 sims: 27.2.
Things you'll notice in the sim:
- Detroit leads by as many as 10 in the first half; Miami leads 50-49 at the break
- Detroit's 10-0 run in the 1st quarter is the biggest swing
- Jenkins puts Detroit ahead for good with 11:25 left in the 4th
- Mitchell finds Adebayo 4 times
- Joe goes 4 of 9 off Detroit's bench
- Detroit leads by 13 at its high point in the 4th. Miami gets within 1. Duren scores last; final 121-115 Detroit
How Miami wins (1,789 of the 5,000):
- It makes threes: 13.3 a game in its wins, 11.4 in its losses. At 15 or more, it wins 56%
- It wins the turnover battle: then it wins 49%
- Antetokounmpo scores 30 or more: then it wins 45%
Across all 5,000 sims:
Detroit wins 64.2%. The books (Draft Kings) have Detroit at 50%, ESPN's model at 55%.
Median score: Miami 115, Detroit 120
Miami covers -1.5 in 33%
Over 237.5 in 46%
Leans:
Biggest role disagreements (new to the team or the league, the books see a different role): Giannis Antetokounmpo rebounds line 10.5, sim 7.7; Giannis Antetokounmpo pts+reb line 39.5, sim 32.6; Giannis Antetokounmpo pts+ast line 35.5, sim 29.9
Caution: tonight the sim sits 1.0 under the books' prop lines on average, so unders are inflated
- Ausar Thompson under 17.5 pts+reb (83%, sim avg 13.1)
- Jalen Duren under 27.5 pts+reb (82%, sim avg 22.1)
- Ausar Thompson under 4.5 assists (82%, sim avg 3.0)
- Jalen Duren under 20.5 pts+ast (82%, sim avg 15.7)
Fine print: one game isn't a prediction. The percentages are the signal.
Our own backtest (2024-26): the books beat this sim on sides and totals. Prop leans beat the base rate by 1-4 points out of sample, not enough to prove profit. Treat it as a lens, not a bet.
Most typical game, play by play (DET score first)
Top 10 prop ideas
No prop ideas logged for this game: not enough props were posted before tip-off.
All player props
Sorted by how far the sim sits from 50%. Players new to their team are tagged: the sim is least sure about their role.
| Player | Market | Line | Sim avg | Sim over | Lean | Sim + you |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Giannis Antetokounmponew team | rebounds | 10.5 | 7.7 | 15% | under 85% | |
| Ausar Thompson | pts+reb | 17.5 | 13.1 | 17% | under 83% | |
| Giannis Antetokounmponew team | pts+reb | 39.5 | 32.6 | 17% | under 83% | |
| Jalen Duren | pts+reb | 27.5 | 22.1 | 18% | under 82% | |
| Ausar Thompson | assists | 4.5 | 3.0 | 18% | under 82% | |
| Jalen Duren | pts+ast | 20.5 | 15.7 | 18% | under 82% | |
| Giannis Antetokounmponew team | pts+ast | 35.5 | 29.9 | 20% | under 80% | |
| Jalen Duren | points | 17.5 | 13.8 | 23% | under 77% | |
| Ausar Thompson | rebounds | 6.5 | 5.1 | 24% | under 76% | |
| Ausar Thompson | points | 10.5 | 8.0 | 25% | under 75% | |
| John Collinsnew team | assists | 1.5 | 1.0 | 25% | under 75% | |
| Davion Mitchell | points | 9.5 | 6.9 | 25% | under 75% | |
| Davion Mitchell | threes | 1.5 | 0.9 | 25% | under 75% | |
| Davion Mitchell | pts+ast | 15.5 | 12.8 | 26% | under 74% | |
| Klay Thompsonnew team | threes | 2.5 | 1.8 | 28% | under 72% | |
| Davion Mitchell | pts+reb | 11.5 | 9.1 | 28% | under 72% | |
| Klay Thompsonnew team | points | 10.5 | 8.2 | 29% | under 71% | |
| Giannis Antetokounmponew team | points | 28.5 | 24.9 | 29% | under 71% | |
| Andrew Wiggins | assists | 1.5 | 2.4 | 69% | over 69% | |
| Jalen Duren | assists | 2.5 | 2.0 | 31% | under 69% | |
| Jalen Duren | rebounds | 9.5 | 8.3 | 32% | under 68% | |
| John Collinsnew team | pts+reb | 19.5 | 17.1 | 33% | under 67% | |
| John Collinsnew team | threes | 0.5 | 1.1 | 67% | over 67% | |
| Bobby Portis Jr.new team | threes | 1.5 | 1.2 | 36% | under 64% | |
| John Collinsnew team | points | 13.5 | 12.1 | 36% | under 64% | |
| Davion Mitchell | assists | 6.5 | 5.8 | 37% | under 63% | |
| John Collinsnew team | pts+ast | 14.5 | 13.1 | 37% | under 63% | |
| Davion Mitchell | rebounds | 2.5 | 2.2 | 37% | under 63% | |
| Cade Cunningham | points | 24.5 | 27.2 | 63% | over 63% | |
| Bobby Portis Jr.new team | rebounds | 5.5 | 4.9 | 38% | under 62% | |
| Cade Cunningham | pts+reb | 29.5 | 32.3 | 62% | over 62% | |
| Duncan Robinson | rebounds | 2.5 | 2.2 | 38% | under 62% | |
| Duncan Robinson | pts+reb | 13.5 | 12.4 | 38% | under 62% | |
| John Collinsnew team | rebounds | 5.5 | 5.0 | 39% | under 61% | |
| Pelle Larsson | pts+reb | 11.5 | 10.5 | 39% | under 61% | |
| Giannis Antetokounmponew team | assists | 5.5 | 5.0 | 39% | under 61% | |
| Bam Adebayo | assists | 3.5 | 3.2 | 40% | under 60% | |
| Bam Adebayo | threes | 1.5 | 1.4 | 40% | under 60% | |
| Bam Adebayo | rebounds | 8.5 | 7.9 | 40% | under 60% | |
| Cade Cunningham | pts+ast | 34.5 | 36.6 | 60% | over 60% | |
| Pelle Larsson | pts+ast | 11.5 | 10.7 | 40% | under 60% | |
| Andrew Wiggins | pts+reb | 17.5 | 16.5 | 41% | under 59% | |
| Pelle Larsson | points | 8.5 | 7.8 | 41% | under 59% | |
| Bam Adebayo | pts+reb | 26.5 | 25.3 | 41% | under 59% | |
| Andrew Wiggins | points | 13.5 | 12.7 | 41% | under 59% | |
| Duncan Robinson | assists | 1.5 | 2.0 | 58% | over 58% | |
| Cade Cunningham | rebounds | 4.5 | 5.1 | 57% | over 57% | |
| Duncan Robinson | threes | 2.5 | 2.4 | 43% | under 57% | |
| Bobby Portis Jr.new team | points | 10.5 | 10.2 | 44% | under 56% | |
| Duncan Robinson | pts+ast | 12.5 | 12.1 | 44% | under 56% | |
| Bobby Portis Jr.new team | pts+reb | 15.5 | 15.1 | 44% | under 56% | |
| Duncan Robinson | points | 10.5 | 10.1 | 45% | under 55% | |
| Andrew Wiggins | pts+ast | 15.5 | 15.1 | 45% | under 55% | |
| Cade Cunningham | threes | 2.5 | 2.5 | 45% | under 55% | |
| Pelle Larsson | assists | 2.5 | 2.8 | 54% | over 54% | |
| Bam Adebayo | points | 17.5 | 17.4 | 46% | under 54% | |
| Andrew Wiggins | rebounds | 3.5 | 3.8 | 54% | over 54% | |
| Tim Hardaway Jr.new team | points | 8.5 | 8.6 | 47% | under 53% | |
| Cade Cunningham | assists | 9.5 | 9.4 | 48% | under 52% | |
| Andrew Wiggins | threes | 1.5 | 1.6 | 48% | under 52% | |
| Bam Adebayo | pts+ast | 20.5 | 20.5 | 48% | under 52% | |
| Tim Hardaway Jr.new team | threes | 1.5 | 1.7 | 51% | over 51% | |
| Pelle Larsson | rebounds | 2.5 | 2.6 | 50% | under 50% |