Gametime

Memphis @ Golden State

Tip-off 7:00 PM PT · Draft Kings lines · 5,000 sims · win chance for GSW

Sim
61%
Books
58%
ESPN model
56%
Median score
119-123
MEM - GSW
GSW -3.5
54%
sim cover rate
Total 235.5
62%
over · sim avg 242
Moneyline
-155
GSW · MEM +130

NBA backtest: the books beat this sim on sides and totals; props run slightly above base rates. Details

How the sim saw it

The sim has Golden State winning 61.2% of 5,000 games, against 58% from the books. The median score is Golden State 123, Memphis 119. In the most typical game: Golden State leads by as many as 12 in the first half; Golden State leads 66-59 at the break. Golden State's 8-0 run in the 1st quarter is the biggest swing. Curry puts Golden State ahead for good with 0:00 left in the 4th. Hendricks goes 4 of 9 off Memphis's bench. Golden State leads by 8 at its high point in the 4th. Memphis pulls even late. Curry scores last; final 123-118 Golden State.

Memphis wins 1,942 of the 5,000. Its chances rise when it makes 18+ threes (it wins 61%), wins the turnover battle (52%) or gets 19+ from Boozer (47%). The matchup to watch is Memphis's ball security against Golden State's hands. Golden State covers -3.5 in 54% and the game goes over 235.5 in 62%.

Full breakdown

  1. Last time they met (Feb 25), Golden State won in Memphis, 133-112.

    Tonight Golden State is without Jimmy Butler III, Moses Moody and Kristaps Porziņģis.

    Golden State went 37-45 last season (20th best record in the NBA).

    Memphis went 25-57 last season (25th best record in the NBA).

    Golden State won the season series 3-0.

    Stephen Curry missed 2 of the 3 meetings.

    De'Anthony Melton missed 2 of the 3 meetings.

    Golden State: gone: Pat Spencer (now PHX); new: Yaxel Lendeborg (no NBA minutes last season), Brandon Williams (from DAL), Georges Niang (from UTA), Graham Ike (no NBA minutes last season).

    Memphis: gone: Jaren Jackson Jr. (now UTA), Santi Aldama (now DAL), Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (now PHI), Jock Landale (now ATL); new: Cameron Boozer (no NBA minutes last season), Jerami Grant (from POR), Kris Murray (from POR), Isaiah Stewart (from DET).

  2. Who's in the sim (top five by projected minutes listed first):

    GSW: Curry, Lendeborg, Green, Melton, Williams

    Bench: Santos, Niang, Horford, Richard, Podziemski, Payton, Cryer (+3 under 8 min)

    Out: Butler, Moody, Porziņģis

    Maybe: Podziemski (50% to play, minutes scaled), Bassey (50% to play, minutes scaled)

    MEM: Boozer, Grant, Wells, Edey, Jerome

    Bench: Spencer, Mashack, Jackson, Pippen, Small, Murray, Hendricks, Prosper, Stewart (+1 under 8 min)

    Maybe: Coward (20% to play, minutes scaled), Stewart (50% to play, minutes scaled)

  3. Who gets hunted: last season shooters hit +2.5 points vs their usual FG% against Jerami Grant and +0.3 against Jaylen Wells.

    The stoppers on threes: Jaylen Wells held shooters 2.1 points under their usual 3P%, Draymond Green held shooters 1.9 points under their usual 3P%.

    In the sim, Stephen Curry sees Grant on 22% of their shots.

  4. The matchup to watch: Memphis's ball security vs Golden State's hands.

    Memphis turned it over on 14.1% of possessions last season (22nd fewest).

    Golden State forced turnovers on 15.0% (4th most), with 9.7 steals (2nd) and 4.2 blocks (26th) a game.

  5. Shot diets.

    Golden State: 49.7% of shots from three (1st), 27.8% at the rim (25th).

    Memphis: 43.6% of shots from three (10th), 27.1% at the rim (27th).

    Golden State's defense: 10th fewest rim attempts allowed, 19th lowest opponent three-point % (36.0%).

    Memphis's defense: 21st fewest rim attempts allowed, 21st lowest opponent three-point % (36.4%).

  6. Golden State's offense runs through Stephen Curry on the pick-and-roll ball handler: 4.9 a game last season, 36th most in the NBA.

    0.97 points per play (top 21%), turnover on 17% of them.

    When it goes to the roller: Golden State's roll men scored 1.06 (23rd in the league). Draymond Green alone: 0.97.

  7. Memphis faced 16.8 of those a game (20th most) and ranked 25th defending them. Against the roll man: 4th.

    In the sim: 0.61 Curry-to-Lendeborg baskets a game.

    With 6+ Curry assists, Golden State wins 65.6%.

  8. Memphis's offense lives on four plays: spot-up shots, transition, the pick-and-roll ball handler, the roll man. It ranked 21st, 29th, 19th, 13th in points per play on them.

    Golden State's defense ranked 29th, 4th, 15th, 7th against those same four.

  9. Where Memphis can hit back:

    • Golden State was 29th defending spot-up shots. Jerami Grant ran 6.2 a game at 1.18 per play
    • Golden State was 21st defending off-screen shots. Jerami Grant ran 1.0 a game at 0.96 per play

  10. One check against real life:

    Stephen Curry scored 16 in his one game against Memphis last season. In our 5,000 sims: 27.2.

  11. Things you'll notice in the sim:

    • Golden State leads by as many as 12 in the first half; Golden State leads 66-59 at the break
    • Golden State's 8-0 run in the 1st quarter is the biggest swing
    • Curry puts Golden State ahead for good with 0:00 left in the 4th
    • Hendricks goes 4 of 9 off Memphis's bench
    • Golden State leads by 8 at its high point in the 4th. Memphis pulls even late. Curry scores last; final 123-118 Golden State

  12. How Memphis wins (1,942 of the 5,000):

    • It makes threes: 16.1 a game in its wins, 13.8 in its losses. At 18 or more, it wins 61%
    • It wins the turnover battle: then it wins 52%
    • Boozer scores 19 or more: then it wins 47%

  13. Across all 5,000 sims:

    Golden State wins 61.2%. The books (Draft Kings) have Golden State at 58%, ESPN's model at 56%.

    Median score: Golden State 123, Memphis 119

    Golden State covers -3.5 in 54%

    Over 235.5 in 62%

    Leans:

  14. Fine print: one game isn't a prediction. The percentages are the signal.

    Our own backtest (2024-26): the books beat this sim on sides and totals. Prop leans beat the base rate by 1-4 points out of sample, not enough to prove profit. Treat it as a lens, not a bet.

Most typical game, play by play (MEM score first)
Quarter 1
Q1GSWGeorges Niang misses in the paint0-0
Q1MEMZach Edey scores at the rim (assist Scotty Pippen Jr.)2-0
Q1GSWBrandon Williams scores at the rim2-2
Q1MEMJerami Grant turns it over2-2
Q1GSWStephen Curry misses at the rim2-2
Q1MEMJerami Grant turns it over2-2
Q1GSWStephen Curry scores in the paint2-4
Q1MEMIsaiah Stewart scores at the rim (assist Javon Small)4-4
Q1GSWDe'Anthony Melton turns it over4-4
Q1MEMCameron Boozer misses three4-4
Q1GSWYaxel Lendeborg misses at the rim, offensive rebound4-4
Q1GSWYaxel Lendeborg scores three (assist Georges Niang)4-7
Q1MEMTy Jerome turns it over4-7
Q1GSWDe'Anthony Melton misses at the rim4-7
Q1MEMCam Spencer misses in the paint4-7
Q1GSWStephen Curry scores three (assist Draymond Green)4-10
Q1MEMOlivier-Maxence Prosper scores in the paint (assist Cameron Boozer)6-10
Q1GSWYaxel Lendeborg misses at the rim6-10
Q1MEMJaylen Wells misses corner three6-10
Q1GSWGui Santos misses at the rim6-10
Q1MEMScotty Pippen Jr. turns it over6-10
Q1GSWStephen Curry misses three6-10
Q1MEMCameron Boozer scores in the paint (assist Scotty Pippen Jr.)8-10
Q1GSWGui Santos scores three (assist Draymond Green)8-13
Q1MEMScotty Pippen Jr. scores corner three (assist Ty Jerome)11-13
Q1GSWStephen Curry scores three (assist Gary Payton II)11-16
Q1MEMTy Jerome misses three11-16
Q1GSWStephen Curry scores in the paint (assist Graham Ike)11-18
Q1MEMJerami Grant misses from midrange11-18
Q1GSWWill Richard scores corner three (assist Graham Ike)11-21
Q1MEMJavon Small scores three14-21
Q1GSWBrandon Williams scores at the rim14-23
Q1MEMCameron Boozer scores at the rim (assist Ty Jerome)16-23
Q1GSWMalevy Leons misses in the paint, offensive rebound16-23
Q1GSWDraymond Green misses three, offensive rebound16-23
Q1GSWDraymond Green misses three16-23
Q1MEMZach Edey misses at the rim16-23
Q1GSWGui Santos goes to the line, makes 1 of 216-24
Q1MEMJerami Grant misses in the paint16-24
Q1GSWLJ Cryer misses three, offensive rebound16-24
Q1GSWBrandon Williams scores in the paint (assist De'Anthony Melton), and one16-27
Q1MEMGG Jackson misses three16-27
Q1GSWDe'Anthony Melton misses corner three16-27
Q1MEMCam Spencer goes to the line, makes 2 of 218-27
Q1GSWStephen Curry misses at the rim18-27
Q1MEMJaylen Wells misses from midrange, offensive rebound18-27
Q1MEMCedric Coward scores at the rim20-27
Q1GSWGeorges Niang misses three20-27
Q1MEMTy Jerome misses at the rim20-27
Q1GSWCharles Bassey scores at the rim (assist Draymond Green)20-29
Q1MEMTy Jerome misses in the paint20-29
Q1GSWBrandin Podziemski scores at the rim (assist Brandon Williams)20-31
Q1MEMTy Jerome scores at the rim22-31
Q1GSWDe'Anthony Melton turns it over22-31
Q1MEMZach Edey scores in the paint (assist Jahmai Mashack)24-31
Q1GSWStephen Curry scores at the rim (assist Yaxel Lendeborg)24-33
Q1MEMJaylen Wells turns it over24-33
Quarter 2
Q2GSWStephen Curry scores three (assist Yaxel Lendeborg)24-36
Q2MEMGG Jackson scores corner three (assist Kris Murray)27-36
Q2GSWAl Horford scores corner three (assist Malevy Leons)27-39
Q2MEMJavon Small turns it over27-39
Q2GSWDe'Anthony Melton misses corner three27-39
Q2MEMJahmai Mashack scores at the rim29-39
Q2GSWGui Santos misses three29-39
Q2MEMOlivier-Maxence Prosper turns it over29-39
Q2GSWStephen Curry misses corner three29-39
Q2MEMJahmai Mashack scores at the rim (assist Cam Spencer)31-39
Q2GSWWill Richard scores at the rim (assist Stephen Curry)31-41
Q2MEMOlivier-Maxence Prosper scores at the rim (assist Ty Jerome)33-41
Q2GSWGary Payton II misses in the paint33-41
Q2MEMOlivier-Maxence Prosper misses in the paint, offensive rebound33-41
Q2MEMJerami Grant goes to the line, makes 2 of 235-41
Q2GSWBrandon Williams misses in the paint, offensive rebound35-41
Q2GSWBrandon Williams misses in the paint35-41
Q2MEMJerami Grant misses three35-41
Q2GSWGui Santos scores three (assist Stephen Curry)35-44
Q2MEMZach Edey scores at the rim, and one38-44
Q2GSWMalevy Leons turns it over38-44
Q2MEMCameron Boozer misses corner three38-44
Q2GSWYaxel Lendeborg misses three38-44
Q2MEMZach Edey scores in the paint (assist Cameron Boozer), and one41-44
Q2GSWStephen Curry misses three41-44
Q2MEMScotty Pippen Jr. goes to the line, makes 2 of 243-44
Q2GSWGraham Ike scores at the rim (assist Draymond Green)43-46
Q2MEMJavon Small misses at the rim, offensive rebound43-46
Q2MEMCameron Boozer misses at the rim43-46
Q2GSWYaxel Lendeborg scores three (assist De'Anthony Melton)43-49
Q2MEMJaylen Wells misses three43-49
Q2GSWBrandon Williams scores corner three (assist Stephen Curry)43-52
Q2MEMScotty Pippen Jr. turns it over43-52
Q2GSWYaxel Lendeborg misses at the rim, offensive rebound43-52
Q2GSWBrandin Podziemski misses three, offensive rebound43-52
Q2GSWMalevy Leons misses corner three43-52
Q2MEMCam Spencer scores three (assist Javon Small)46-52
Q2GSWDe'Anthony Melton misses three46-52
Q2MEMJavon Small turns it over46-52
Q2GSWDraymond Green scores three (assist Will Richard)46-55
Q2MEMCameron Boozer scores in the paint48-55
Q2GSWGui Santos turns it over48-55
Q2MEMZach Edey misses at the rim, offensive rebound48-55
Q2MEMTaylor Hendricks scores corner three (assist Ty Jerome)51-55
Q2GSWDraymond Green turns it over51-55
Q2MEMTaylor Hendricks misses corner three51-55
Q2GSWGui Santos scores corner three (assist Draymond Green)51-58
Q2MEMTaylor Hendricks scores three54-58
Q2GSWWill Richard scores at the rim (assist Yaxel Lendeborg)54-60
Q2MEMJaylen Wells misses at the rim54-60
Q2GSWStephen Curry scores at the rim54-62
Q2MEMJaylen Wells scores at the rim56-62
Q2GSWGeorges Niang scores at the rim (assist Gary Payton II)56-64
Q2MEMJerami Grant misses at the rim56-64
Q2GSWBrandon Williams goes to the line, makes 2 of 256-66
Q2MEMGG Jackson scores at the rim (assist Cameron Boozer), and one59-66
Quarter 3
Q3GSWAl Horford misses three, offensive rebound59-66
Q3GSWLJ Cryer misses three, offensive rebound59-66
Q3GSWStephen Curry scores from midrange (assist De'Anthony Melton)59-68
Q3MEMJahmai Mashack scores at the rim (assist Ty Jerome)61-68
Q3GSWYaxel Lendeborg misses three61-68
Q3MEMGG Jackson misses three61-68
Q3GSWDe'Anthony Melton misses three61-68
Q3MEMTaylor Hendricks misses three61-68
Q3GSWDe'Anthony Melton scores three61-71
Q3MEMJahmai Mashack turns it over61-71
Q3GSWYaxel Lendeborg misses three61-71
Q3MEMCameron Boozer turns it over61-71
Q3GSWCharles Bassey misses in the paint61-71
Q3MEMGG Jackson scores at the rim63-71
Q3GSWStephen Curry misses from midrange63-71
Q3MEMJahmai Mashack misses in the paint63-71
Q3GSWStephen Curry scores corner three (assist De'Anthony Melton)63-74
Q3MEMJerami Grant misses at the rim63-74
Q3GSWYaxel Lendeborg turns it over63-74
Q3MEMGG Jackson misses corner three63-74
Q3GSWCharles Bassey scores in the paint (assist Brandon Williams)63-76
Q3MEMTaylor Hendricks misses corner three63-76
Q3GSWDraymond Green misses three63-76
Q3MEMZach Edey goes to the line, makes 2 of 265-76
Q3GSWBrandon Williams misses corner three65-76
Q3MEMJahmai Mashack misses at the rim65-76
Q3GSWGeorges Niang misses corner three65-76
Q3MEMTaylor Hendricks scores three (assist Scotty Pippen Jr.)68-76
Q3GSWDe'Anthony Melton scores at the rim68-78
Q3MEMTy Jerome misses in the paint68-78
Q3GSWStephen Curry misses from midrange68-78
Q3MEMOlivier-Maxence Prosper misses corner three68-78
Q3GSWGraham Ike misses three68-78
Q3MEMJavon Small goes to the line, makes 2 of 270-78
Q3GSWYaxel Lendeborg misses in the paint70-78
Q3MEMCameron Boozer misses at the rim70-78
Q3GSWBrandon Williams turns it over70-78
Q3MEMCedric Coward scores at the rim72-78
Q3GSWStephen Curry misses three72-78
Q3MEMJaylen Wells turns it over72-78
Q3GSWLJ Cryer scores corner three (assist Al Horford)72-81
Q3MEMCam Spencer scores at the rim (assist Javon Small)74-81
Q3GSWBrandin Podziemski scores in the paint (assist Stephen Curry)74-83
Q3MEMZach Edey scores at the rim (assist Isaiah Stewart)76-83
Q3GSWWill Richard scores at the rim (assist Al Horford)76-85
Q3MEMJerami Grant goes to the line, makes 2 of 278-85
Q3GSWYaxel Lendeborg scores at the rim (assist Brandin Podziemski)78-87
Q3MEMGG Jackson misses corner three78-87
Q3GSWDraymond Green turns it over78-87
Q3MEMTy Jerome misses three, offensive rebound78-87
Q3MEMKris Murray misses corner three, offensive rebound78-87
Q3MEMCam Spencer scores three81-87
Q3GSWYaxel Lendeborg misses in the paint81-87
Q3MEMJaylen Wells misses in the paint, offensive rebound81-87
Q3MEMJerami Grant misses three81-87
Quarter 4
Q4GSWStephen Curry misses in the paint81-87
Q4MEMGG Jackson turns it over81-87
Q4GSWGeorges Niang misses at the rim81-87
Q4MEMZach Edey scores at the rim (assist Cameron Boozer)83-87
Q4GSWAl Horford misses three, offensive rebound83-87
Q4GSWStephen Curry misses three83-87
Q4MEMTy Jerome misses in the paint83-87
Q4GSWGeorges Niang scores at the rim (assist Stephen Curry)83-89
Q4MEMJaylen Wells turns it over83-89
Q4GSWBrandin Podziemski misses three, offensive rebound83-89
Q4GSWDe'Anthony Melton scores at the rim83-91
Q4MEMTaylor Hendricks scores in the paint (assist Jahmai Mashack)85-91
Q4GSWBrandin Podziemski misses in the paint85-91
Q4MEMJaylen Wells misses at the rim85-91
Q4GSWGraham Ike misses three85-91
Q4MEMJavon Small misses three85-91
Q4GSWDe'Anthony Melton misses corner three, offensive rebound85-91
Q4GSWStephen Curry scores from midrange85-93
Q4MEMCam Spencer misses three, offensive rebound85-93
Q4MEMTy Jerome scores corner three (assist Cameron Boozer)88-93
Q4GSWYaxel Lendeborg misses three, offensive rebound88-93
Q4GSWLJ Cryer misses in the paint88-93
Q4MEMScotty Pippen Jr. misses three, offensive rebound88-93
Q4MEMTaylor Hendricks misses corner three, offensive rebound88-93
Q4MEMZach Edey scores at the rim (assist Cam Spencer)90-93
Q4GSWLJ Cryer turns it over90-93
Q4MEMCameron Boozer misses at the rim90-93
Q4GSWStephen Curry misses three, offensive rebound90-93
Q4GSWStephen Curry goes to the line, makes 1 of 290-94
Q4MEMJerami Grant scores at the rim92-94
Q4GSWDraymond Green misses corner three92-94
Q4MEMZach Edey turns it over92-94
Q4GSWDe'Anthony Melton goes to the line, makes 1 of 292-95
Q4MEMZach Edey scores at the rim94-95
Q4GSWStephen Curry misses three94-95
Q4MEMCedric Coward misses at the rim94-95
Q4GSWStephen Curry scores three (assist Brandon Williams)94-98
Q4MEMCameron Boozer goes to the line, makes 2 of 296-98
Q4GSWStephen Curry misses three96-98
Q4MEMKris Murray goes to the line, makes 0 of 296-98
Q4GSWGary Payton II misses at the rim96-98
Q4MEMScotty Pippen Jr. misses at the rim96-98
Q4GSWStephen Curry misses three96-98
Q4MEMJahmai Mashack misses three, offensive rebound96-98
Q4MEMTy Jerome scores three99-98
Q4GSWYaxel Lendeborg goes to the line, makes 1 of 299-99
Q4MEMCedric Coward misses in the paint, offensive rebound99-99
Q4MEMScotty Pippen Jr. turns it over99-99
Q4GSWBrandon Williams scores at the rim99-101
Q4MEMJahmai Mashack scores at the rim101-101
Q4GSWDraymond Green scores at the rim101-103
Q4MEMCedric Coward scores three (assist Javon Small)104-103
Q4GSWGeorges Niang misses three, offensive rebound104-103
Q4GSWYaxel Lendeborg scores at the rim (assist Georges Niang)104-105
Q4MEMCameron Boozer scores at the rim (assist Cam Spencer)106-105
Q4GSWBrandin Podziemski goes to the line, makes 1 of 2106-106
Q4MEMZach Edey misses at the rim106-106
Q4GSWStephen Curry misses three106-106
Q4MEMJerami Grant misses three106-106
Q4GSWStephen Curry scores at the rim (assist Al Horford)106-108
Q4MEMOlivier-Maxence Prosper scores at the rim108-108
Q4GSWDraymond Green scores at the rim (assist Graham Ike)108-110
Q4MEMTaylor Hendricks misses three108-110
Q4GSWStephen Curry scores three (assist Charles Bassey)108-113
Q4MEMJerami Grant scores three (assist Javon Small)111-113
Q4GSWStephen Curry misses three111-113
Q4MEMCam Spencer scores at the rim (assist Cameron Boozer)113-113
Q4GSWStephen Curry scores three (assist Al Horford)113-116
Q4MEMScotty Pippen Jr. turns it over113-116
Q4GSWBrandon Williams scores three (assist Georges Niang)113-119
Q4MEMZach Edey turns it over113-119
Q4GSWDe'Anthony Melton misses three113-119
Q4MEMJerami Grant scores three116-119
Q4GSWStephen Curry misses at the rim116-119
Q4MEMGG Jackson scores at the rim (assist Cameron Boozer)118-119
Q4GSWYaxel Lendeborg scores in the paint (assist Malevy Leons)118-121
Q4MEMJavon Small misses three118-121
Q4GSWStephen Curry scores in the paint118-123
Q4MEMJerami Grant misses three, offensive rebound118-123
Q4MEMJerami Grant misses in the paint118-123

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