Minnesota @ Orlando
Tip-off 4:00 PM PT · Draft Kings lines · 5,000 sims · win chance for MIN
NBA backtest: the books beat this sim on sides and totals; props run slightly above base rates. Details
How the sim saw it
The sim has Minnesota winning 53.1% of 5,000 games, against 53% from the books. The median score is Orlando 115, Minnesota 116. In the most typical game: Minnesota leads by as many as 6 in the first half; Minnesota leads 67-63 at the break. Orlando's 11-0 run in the 4th quarter is the biggest swing. Gobert puts Minnesota ahead for good with 1:25 left in the 2nd. Suggs finds Wagner 3 times. Kuminga finds Edwards 3 times. Kuminga goes 5 of 13 off Minnesota's bench. Minnesota leads by 15 at its high point in the 4th. Orlando gets within 2. Vučević scores last; final 116-114 Minnesota.
Orlando wins 2,345 of the 5,000. Its chances rise when it makes 14+ threes (it wins 67%), wins the turnover battle (58%) or gets 31+ from Banchero (58%). The matchup to watch is Orlando's ball security against Minnesota's hands. Minnesota covers -1.5 in 50% and the game goes over 235.5 in 41%.
Full breakdown
Last time they met (Apr 8), Orlando won in Orlando, 132-120.
Tonight Orlando is without Anthony Black.
Tonight Minnesota is without Donte DiVincenzo.
Orlando went 45-37 last season (13th best record in the NBA).
Minnesota went 49-33 last season (10th best record in the NBA).
Orlando won the season series 2-0.
Orlando: new: Nikola Vučević (from CHI).
Minnesota: gone: Julius Randle (now BKN), Naz Reid (now CHA), Mike Conley (now BOS); new: LaMelo Ball (from CHA), Ayo Dosunmu (from CHI), Jonathan Kuminga (from GSW), Cody Williams (from UTA), Trey Lyles (no NBA minutes last season), Isaiah Evans (no NBA minutes last season).
Who's in the sim (top five by projected minutes listed first):
ORL: Banchero, Bane, W. Carter, Wagner, Suggs
Bench: Vučević, Silva, J. Carter, Bitadze, Cain (+3 under 8 min)
Out: Black, Isaac, Nelson, Penda
MIN: Edwards, Gobert, McDaniels, Ball, Dosunmu
Bench: Kuminga, Williams, Lyles, Hyland, Jr (+5 under 8 min)
Out: DiVincenzo
Who gets hunted: last season shooters hit +3.7 points vs their usual FG% against LaMelo Ball and +2.0 against Jalen Suggs.
The stoppers on threes: Desmond Bane held shooters 5.8 points under their usual 3P%, Ayo Dosunmu held shooters 5.6 points under their usual 3P%.
In the sim, Jalen Suggs sees Ball on 19% of their shots.
The matchup to watch: Orlando's ball security vs Minnesota's hands.
Orlando turned it over on 13.3% of possessions last season (12th fewest).
Minnesota forced turnovers on 13.8% (14th most), with 8.7 steals (12th) and 5.8 blocks (2nd) a game.
Shot diets.
Orlando: 38.6% of shots from three (24th), 33.6% at the rim (6th).
Minnesota: 42.0% of shots from three (16th), 31.3% at the rim (10th).
Orlando's defense: 15th fewest rim attempts allowed, 11th lowest opponent three-point % (35.3%).
Minnesota's defense: 25th fewest rim attempts allowed, 13th lowest opponent three-point % (35.5%).
Minnesota's offense runs through LaMelo Ball on the pick-and-roll ball handler: 8.6 a game last season, 4th most in the NBA.
0.87 points per play (top 43%), turnover on 14% of them.
When it goes to the roller: Minnesota's roll men scored 1.16 (9th in the league). Rudy Gobert alone: 1.27.
Orlando faced 18.3 of those a game (12th most) and ranked 21st defending them. Against the roll man: 22nd.
In the sim: 1.24 Ball-to-Edwards baskets a game.
With 8+ Ball assists, Minnesota wins 64.0%.
Orlando's offense lives on four plays: spot-up shots, transition, the pick-and-roll ball handler, cuts. It ranked 25th, 13th, 20th, 12th in points per play on them.
Minnesota's defense ranked 10th, 14th, 15th, 5th against those same four.
Paolo Banchero in one split:
Post-ups: 1.09 points per play (top 32%), 2.1 a game.
Transition: 1.13 points per play (top 50%), 4.3 a game.
Minnesota's defense: 14th against transition, 30th against post-ups.
Where Orlando can hit back:
- Minnesota was 30th defending post-ups. Nikola Vučević ran 2.6 a game at 0.87 per play
- Minnesota was 19th defending handoffs. Desmond Bane ran 1.4 a game at 1.10 per play
One check against real life:
Paolo Banchero scored 22.5 points in his 2 games against Minnesota last season, 25 of them on Mar 7. In our 5,000 sims: 24.9.
Things you'll notice in the sim:
- Minnesota leads by as many as 6 in the first half; Minnesota leads 67-63 at the break
- Orlando's 11-0 run in the 4th quarter is the biggest swing
- Gobert puts Minnesota ahead for good with 1:25 left in the 2nd
- Suggs finds Wagner 3 times
- Kuminga finds Edwards 3 times
- Kuminga goes 5 of 13 off Minnesota's bench
- Minnesota leads by 15 at its high point in the 4th. Orlando gets within 2. Vučević scores last; final 116-114 Minnesota
How Orlando wins (2,345 of the 5,000):
- It makes threes: 12.6 a game in its wins, 10.7 in its losses. At 14 or more, it wins 67%
- It wins the turnover battle: then it wins 58%
- Banchero scores 31 or more: then it wins 58%
Across all 5,000 sims:
Minnesota wins 53.1%. The books (Draft Kings) have Minnesota at 53%, ESPN's model at 59%.
Median score: Orlando 115, Minnesota 116
Minnesota covers -1.5 in 50%
Over 235.5 in 41%
Leans:
Biggest role disagreements (new to the team or the league, the books see a different role): Jonathan Kuminga threes line 1.5, sim 0.8; Jonathan Kuminga rebounds line 5.5, sim 4.0; Jonathan Kuminga assists line 2.5, sim 1.7
Caution: tonight the sim sits 0.8 under the books' prop lines on average, so unders are inflated
- Jaden McDaniels under 18.5 pts+ast (79%, sim avg 14.4)
- Jaden McDaniels under 15.5 points (77%, sim avg 12.1)
- Jaden McDaniels under 20.5 pts+reb (76%, sim avg 16.8)
- Franz Wagner under 26.5 pts+ast (75%, sim avg 22.3)
Fine print: one game isn't a prediction. The percentages are the signal.
Our own backtest (2024-26): the books beat this sim on sides and totals. Prop leans beat the base rate by 1-4 points out of sample, not enough to prove profit. Treat it as a lens, not a bet.
Most typical game, play by play (MIN score first)
Top 10 prop ideas
No prop ideas logged for this game: not enough props were posted before tip-off.
All player props
Sorted by how far the sim sits from 50%. Players new to their team are tagged: the sim is least sure about their role.
| Player | Market | Line | Sim avg | Sim over | Lean | Sim + you |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Kuminganew team | threes | 1.5 | 0.8 | 18% | under 82% | |
| Jaden McDaniels | pts+ast | 18.5 | 14.4 | 21% | under 79% | |
| Jonathan Kuminganew team | rebounds | 5.5 | 4.0 | 21% | under 79% | |
| Jonathan Kuminganew team | assists | 2.5 | 1.7 | 23% | under 77% | |
| Jaden McDaniels | points | 15.5 | 12.1 | 23% | under 77% | |
| Jaden McDaniels | pts+reb | 20.5 | 16.8 | 24% | under 76% | |
| Franz Wagner | pts+ast | 26.5 | 22.3 | 25% | under 75% | |
| LaMelo Ballnew team | assists | 7.5 | 6.0 | 25% | under 75% | |
| Franz Wagner | assists | 4.5 | 3.4 | 26% | under 74% | |
| Franz Wagner | pts+reb | 27.5 | 23.6 | 26% | under 74% | |
| Wendell Carter Jr. | pts+reb | 18.5 | 15.6 | 27% | under 73% | |
| Jaden McDaniels | threes | 1.5 | 1.1 | 28% | under 72% | |
| Rudy Gobert | pts+reb | 21.5 | 18.8 | 29% | under 71% | |
| Jonathan Kuminganew team | pts+reb | 17.5 | 15.2 | 31% | under 69% | |
| Jalen Suggs | pts+reb | 17.5 | 15.1 | 31% | under 69% | |
| Paolo Banchero | points | 21.5 | 24.9 | 68% | over 68% | |
| Franz Wagner | rebounds | 5.5 | 4.7 | 32% | under 68% | |
| Franz Wagner | points | 21.5 | 18.9 | 33% | under 67% | |
| Jalen Suggs | points | 13.5 | 11.6 | 33% | under 67% | |
| Wendell Carter Jr. | points | 10.5 | 8.9 | 34% | under 66% | |
| Jaden McDaniels | rebounds | 5.5 | 4.7 | 34% | under 66% | |
| Rudy Gobert | points | 9.5 | 8.1 | 35% | under 65% | |
| Paolo Banchero | pts+ast | 27.5 | 30.4 | 65% | over 65% | |
| Jonathan Kuminganew team | pts+ast | 14.5 | 12.8 | 35% | under 65% | |
| Wendell Carter Jr. | rebounds | 7.5 | 6.7 | 35% | under 65% | |
| Jonathan Kuminganew team | points | 12.5 | 11.2 | 37% | under 63% | |
| Paolo Banchero | pts+reb | 30.5 | 33.0 | 63% | over 63% | |
| Jalen Suggs | pts+ast | 17.5 | 16.2 | 38% | under 62% | |
| Desmond Bane | threes | 2.5 | 2.2 | 38% | under 62% | |
| Anthony Edwards | pts+ast | 33.5 | 31.4 | 38% | under 62% | |
| Rudy Gobert | rebounds | 11.5 | 10.7 | 38% | under 62% | |
| Franz Wagner | threes | 1.5 | 1.3 | 39% | under 61% | |
| Jaden McDaniels | assists | 2.5 | 2.3 | 41% | under 59% | |
| Anthony Edwards | points | 29.5 | 28.1 | 41% | under 59% | |
| Desmond Bane | pts+ast | 20.5 | 22.2 | 58% | over 58% | |
| LaMelo Ballnew team | pts+ast | 27.5 | 26.4 | 42% | under 58% | |
| Desmond Bane | pts+reb | 21.5 | 23.3 | 58% | over 58% | |
| Anthony Edwards | assists | 3.5 | 3.3 | 43% | under 57% | |
| Paolo Banchero | rebounds | 8.5 | 8.1 | 43% | under 57% | |
| LaMelo Ballnew team | rebounds | 4.5 | 4.4 | 43% | under 57% | |
| Desmond Bane | assists | 3.5 | 3.4 | 44% | under 56% | |
| Desmond Bane | points | 17.5 | 18.8 | 56% | over 56% | |
| Anthony Edwards | threes | 3.5 | 3.4 | 44% | under 56% | |
| Jalen Suggs | threes | 1.5 | 1.8 | 55% | over 55% | |
| Jalen Suggs | rebounds | 3.5 | 3.5 | 45% | under 55% | |
| Anthony Edwards | pts+reb | 34.5 | 33.9 | 45% | under 55% | |
| Desmond Bane | rebounds | 4.5 | 4.5 | 46% | under 54% | |
| LaMelo Ballnew team | threes | 3.5 | 3.5 | 47% | under 53% | |
| Anthony Edwards | rebounds | 5.5 | 5.8 | 53% | over 53% | |
| LaMelo Ballnew team | points | 19.5 | 20.3 | 52% | over 52% | |
| Paolo Banchero | assists | 5.5 | 5.5 | 48% | under 52% | |
| Paolo Banchero | threes | 1.5 | 1.6 | 48% | under 52% | |
| Jalen Suggs | assists | 4.5 | 4.6 | 49% | under 51% | |
| LaMelo Ballnew team | pts+reb | 24.5 | 24.7 | 49% | under 51% |