New Orleans @ Utah

Tip-off 6:30 PM PT · Draft Kings lines · 5,000 sims · win chance for NOP

Sim

51%

Books

46%

ESPN model

36%

Median score

128-127

NOP - UTA

UTA -2.5

44%

sim cover rate

Total 238.5

80%

over · sim avg 255

Moneyline

-130

UTA · NOP +110

NBA backtest: the books beat this sim on sides and totals; props run slightly above base rates. Details

How the sim saw it

The sim has New Orleans winning 51.2% of 5,000 games, against 46% from the books. The median score is Utah 127, New Orleans 128. In the most typical game: Utah leads by as many as 9 in the first half; New Orleans leads 75-72 at the break. New Orleans's 13-0 run in the 2nd quarter is the biggest swing. Fears puts New Orleans ahead for good with 2:46 left in the 4th. Collier finds Markkanen 3 times. Filipowski goes 9 of 11 off Utah's bench. New Orleans leads by 3 at its high point in the 4th. Utah pulls even late. Fears scores last; final 128-127 New Orleans.

Utah wins 2,441 of the 5,000. Its chances rise when it makes 18+ threes (it wins 70%), wins the turnover battle (61%) or gets 29+ from Markkanen (63%). The matchup to watch is New Orleans's ball security against Utah's hands. Utah covers -2.5 in 44% and the game goes over 238.5 in 80%.

Full breakdown

Last time they met (Apr 7), New Orleans won in New Orleans, 156-137.
Tonight Utah is without Jusuf Nurkić.
Utah went 22-60 last season (26th best record in the NBA).
New Orleans went 26-56 last season (23rd best record in the NBA).
New Orleans won the season series 3-0.
Lauri Markkanen missed 3 of the 3 meetings.
Keyonte George missed 2 of the 3 meetings.
Svi Mykhailiuk missed 2 of the 3 meetings.
Trey Murphy III missed 3 of the 3 meetings.
Yves Missi missed 2 of the 3 meetings.
Utah: gone: Cody Williams (now MIN); new: Darryn Peterson (no NBA minutes last season), Jaren Jackson Jr. (from MEM), Jaxson Hayes (from LAL), Josh Okogie (from HOU), Josh Green (from CHA), Tony Bradley (from IND), Harrison Ingram (from SAS).
New Orleans: new: Julian Reese (from WAS), Bennedict Mathurin (from IND), Trendon Watford (from PHI).
Who's in the sim (top five by projected minutes listed first):
UTA: Markkanen, George, Peterson, Jackson, Bailey
Bench: Collier, Sensabaugh, Mykhailiuk, Filipowski, Hayes, Okogie (+4 under 8 min)
Out: Alexander, Nurkić
Maybe: Bradley (50% to play, minutes scaled)
NOP: Murphy, Bey, Williamson, Murray, Mathurin
Bench: Reese, Jones, Fears, Queen, Poole, McGowens, Missi, Jordan (+2 under 8 min)
Who gets hunted: last season shooters hit +3.5 points vs their usual FG% against Trey Murphy III and +2.3 against Keyonte George.
The stoppers on threes: Lauri Markkanen held shooters 5.8 points under their usual 3P%, Saddiq Bey held shooters 2.9 points under their usual 3P%.
In the sim, Lauri Markkanen sees Murphy on 11% of their shots.
The matchup to watch: New Orleans's ball security vs Utah's hands.
New Orleans turned it over on 13.1% of possessions last season (11th fewest).
Utah forced turnovers on 13.3% (18th most), with 8.9 steals (8th) and 3.8 blocks (30th) a game.
Shot diets.
Utah: 40.2% of shots from three (21st), 28.8% at the rim (23rd).
New Orleans: 35.5% of shots from three (26th), 41.0% at the rim (1st).
Utah's defense: 4th fewest rim attempts allowed, 27th lowest opponent three-point % (37.2%).
New Orleans's defense: 23rd fewest rim attempts allowed, 5th lowest opponent three-point % (35.0%).
New Orleans's offense runs through Jeremiah Fears on the pick-and-roll ball handler: 4.8 a game last season, 38th most in the NBA.
0.84 points per play (top 50%), turnover on 16% of them.
When it goes to the roller: New Orleans's roll men scored 1.12 (14th in the league). Derik Queen alone: 1.11.
Utah faced 13.1 of those a game (29th most) and ranked 28th defending them. Against the roll man: 27th.
In the sim: 0.47 Fears-to-Murphy baskets a game (last season: 0.73).
With 4+ Fears assists, New Orleans wins 56.0%.
Utah's offense lives on four plays: spot-up shots, transition, the pick-and-roll ball handler, cuts. It ranked 20th, 12th, 10th, 18th in points per play on them.
New Orleans's defense ranked 17th, 22nd, 14th, 14th against those same four.
Lauri Markkanen in one split:
Transition: 1.31 points per play (top 14%), 4.0 a game.
Off-screen shots: 1.02 points per play (top 40%), 4.5 a game.
New Orleans's defense: 8th against off-screen shots, 22nd against transition.
Where Utah can hit back:
- New Orleans was 25th defending post-ups. Jaren Jackson Jr. ran 3.5 a game at 0.97 per play
- New Orleans was 23rd defending putbacks. Lauri Markkanen ran 1.7 a game at 1.09 per play
One check against real life:
Jeremiah Fears scored 23.3 points in his 3 games against Utah last season, 40 of them on Apr 7. In our 5,000 sims: 10.7.
Things you'll notice in the sim:
- Utah leads by as many as 9 in the first half; New Orleans leads 75-72 at the break
- New Orleans's 13-0 run in the 2nd quarter is the biggest swing
- Fears puts New Orleans ahead for good with 2:46 left in the 4th
- Collier finds Markkanen 3 times
- Filipowski goes 9 of 11 off Utah's bench
- New Orleans leads by 3 at its high point in the 4th. Utah pulls even late. Fears scores last; final 128-127 New Orleans
How Utah wins (2,441 of the 5,000):
- It makes threes: 16.0 a game in its wins, 13.7 in its losses. At 18 or more, it wins 70%
- It wins the turnover battle: then it wins 61%
- Markkanen scores 29 or more: then it wins 63%
Across all 5,000 sims:
New Orleans wins 51.2%. The books (Draft Kings) have New Orleans at 46%, ESPN's model at 36%.
Median score: Utah 127, New Orleans 128
Utah covers -2.5 in 44%
Over 238.5 in 80%
Leans:
Fine print: one game isn't a prediction. The percentages are the signal.
Our own backtest (2024-26): the books beat this sim on sides and totals. Prop leans beat the base rate by 1-4 points out of sample, not enough to prove profit. Treat it as a lens, not a bet.

Most typical game, play by play (NOP score first)

Quarter 1

Q1UTAKeyonte George misses three, offensive rebound0-0

Q1UTADarryn Peterson misses three0-0

Q1NOPJeremiah Fears goes to the line, makes 2 of 22-0

Q1UTABrice Sensabaugh scores three2-3

Q1NOPSaddiq Bey misses in the paint, offensive rebound2-3

Q1NOPDejounte Murray scores at the rim4-3

Q1UTAKyle Filipowski scores at the rim (assist Lauri Markkanen)4-5

Q1NOPSaddiq Bey scores at the rim6-5

Q1UTAKyle Filipowski scores at the rim (assist Isaiah Collier)6-7

Q1NOPSaddiq Bey scores in the paint8-7

Q1UTAAce Bailey misses corner three, offensive rebound8-7

Q1UTAKyle Filipowski scores at the rim (assist Darryn Peterson)8-9

Q1NOPBryce McGowens scores from midrange10-9

Q1UTAJaren Jackson Jr. misses at the rim, offensive rebound10-9

Q1UTABrice Sensabaugh scores in the paint10-11

Q1NOPTrendon Watford scores at the rim (assist Karlo Matković)12-11

Q1UTAJaren Jackson Jr. misses three, offensive rebound12-11

Q1UTAKeyonte George scores at the rim (assist Kyle Filipowski)12-13

Q1NOPZion Williamson scores at the rim14-13

Q1UTAJaren Jackson Jr. misses in the paint, offensive rebound14-13

Q1UTAKyle Filipowski scores at the rim (assist Darryn Peterson)14-15

Q1NOPZion Williamson scores at the rim16-15

Q1UTALauri Markkanen scores at the rim16-17

Q1NOPBennedict Mathurin scores from midrange (assist Trey Murphy III)18-17

Q1UTAKyle Filipowski turns it over18-17

Q1NOPJordan Poole misses three, offensive rebound18-17

Q1NOPZion Williamson misses in the paint18-17

Q1UTAJaren Jackson Jr. misses three18-17

Q1NOPHerbert Jones scores at the rim (assist Zion Williamson)20-17

Q1UTALauri Markkanen misses three20-17

Q1NOPJordan Poole scores from midrange (assist Dejounte Murray)22-17

Q1UTAKeyonte George turns it over22-17

Q1NOPTrey Murphy III goes to the line, makes 1 of 223-17

Q1UTAJaxson Hayes scores at the rim23-19

Q1NOPHerbert Jones misses in the paint23-19

Q1UTAAce Bailey misses three23-19

Q1NOPZion Williamson scores in the paint25-19

Q1UTAAce Bailey misses three25-19

Q1NOPDerik Queen scores at the rim27-19

Q1UTAIsaiah Collier scores in the paint (assist Ace Bailey)27-21

Q1NOPDejounte Murray misses at the rim, offensive rebound27-21

Q1NOPTrey Murphy III scores at the rim29-21

Q1UTAKyle Filipowski scores in the paint (assist Jaren Jackson Jr.)29-23

Q1NOPJeremiah Fears misses three, offensive rebound29-23

Q1NOPTrey Murphy III misses three29-23

Q1UTAJaren Jackson Jr. misses at the rim29-23

Q1NOPJeremiah Fears turns it over29-23

Q1UTAAce Bailey misses at the rim, offensive rebound29-23

Q1UTAKeyonte George turns it over29-23

Q1NOPZion Williamson scores at the rim (assist Jordan Poole)31-23

Q1UTABrice Sensabaugh scores at the rim (assist Isaiah Collier)31-25

Q1NOPKarlo Matković scores at the rim33-25

Q1UTALauri Markkanen scores three (assist Svi Mykhailiuk)33-28

Q1NOPJeremiah Fears goes to the line, makes 2 of 235-28

Q1UTASvi Mykhailiuk scores three (assist Brice Sensabaugh)35-31

Q1NOPJordan Poole misses three35-31

Q1UTAAce Bailey scores three (assist Isaiah Collier)35-34

Q1NOPJeremiah Fears scores at the rim (assist Dejounte Murray)37-34

Q1UTAJaxson Hayes turns it over37-34

Q1NOPDeAndre Jordan scores at the rim (assist Trey Murphy III)39-34

Q1UTAKeyonte George turns it over39-34

Q1NOPBennedict Mathurin scores three42-34

Quarter 2

Q2UTAKeyonte George scores in the paint42-36

Q2NOPJulian Reese misses three42-36

Q2UTAJosh Okogie scores at the rim (assist Brice Sensabaugh)42-38

Q2NOPYves Missi scores at the rim (assist Zion Williamson)44-38

Q2UTAKyle Filipowski scores in the paint (assist Keyonte George)44-40

Q2NOPHerbert Jones misses three44-40

Q2UTAAce Bailey scores three (assist Keyonte George)44-43

Q2NOPJeremiah Fears goes to the line, makes 1 of 245-43

Q2UTAKeyonte George scores from midrange45-45

Q2NOPYves Missi scores at the rim (assist Saddiq Bey)47-45

Q2UTAJosh Green scores corner three (assist Lauri Markkanen)47-48

Q2NOPJeremiah Fears misses in the paint, offensive rebound47-48

Q2NOPZion Williamson misses at the rim47-48

Q2UTALauri Markkanen turns it over47-48

Q2NOPDerik Queen misses in the paint47-48

Q2UTAKeyonte George misses three47-48

Q2NOPZion Williamson scores at the rim (assist Saddiq Bey)49-48

Q2UTAJaren Jackson Jr. scores at the rim49-50

Q2NOPTrendon Watford turns it over49-50

Q2UTAJosh Okogie scores three49-53

Q2NOPDejounte Murray goes to the line, makes 1 of 250-53

Q2UTAJaren Jackson Jr. misses in the paint50-53

Q2NOPZion Williamson goes to the line, makes 2 of 252-53

Q2UTALauri Markkanen misses in the paint52-53

Q2NOPJeremiah Fears scores from midrange (assist Trey Murphy III)54-53

Q2UTADarryn Peterson scores in the paint (assist Jaren Jackson Jr.)54-55

Q2NOPZion Williamson goes to the line, makes 2 of 256-55

Q2UTAJaxson Hayes goes to the line, makes 2 of 256-57

Q2NOPTrendon Watford misses in the paint56-57

Q2UTAKeyonte George scores three (assist Kyle Filipowski)56-60

Q2NOPJordan Poole goes to the line, makes 2 of 258-60

Q2UTAAce Bailey scores in the paint (assist Keyonte George)58-62

Q2NOPJeremiah Fears scores at the rim60-62

Q2UTAKeyonte George scores at the rim60-64

Q2NOPSaddiq Bey goes to the line, makes 0 of 260-64

Q2UTAJaren Jackson Jr. scores three (assist Keyonte George)60-67

Q2NOPTrey Murphy III misses three60-67

Q2UTAIsaiah Collier misses in the paint, offensive rebound60-67

Q2UTASvi Mykhailiuk scores in the paint (assist Brice Sensabaugh)60-69

Q2NOPJordan Poole misses in the paint, offensive rebound60-69

Q2NOPZion Williamson scores in the paint62-69

Q2UTAKeyonte George misses in the paint62-69

Q2NOPJulian Reese scores in the paint (assist Herbert Jones)64-69

Q2UTAJaren Jackson Jr. misses three64-69

Q2NOPKarlo Matković scores at the rim (assist Jeremiah Fears)66-69

Q2UTAAce Bailey misses corner three66-69

Q2NOPDejounte Murray misses from midrange, offensive rebound66-69

Q2NOPBennedict Mathurin goes to the line, makes 2 of 268-69

Q2UTAJaren Jackson Jr. goes to the line, makes 0 of 268-69

Q2NOPBennedict Mathurin scores at the rim (assist Trendon Watford)70-69

Q2UTAAce Bailey turns it over70-69

Q2NOPZion Williamson goes to the line, makes 1 of 271-69

Q2UTAKyle Filipowski misses corner three71-69

Q2NOPJordan Poole scores at the rim (assist Herbert Jones)73-69

Q2UTAKyle Filipowski scores in the paint (assist Isaiah Collier), and one73-72

Q2NOPSaddiq Bey scores at the rim75-72

Quarter 3

Q3UTABrice Sensabaugh misses three75-72

Q3NOPDerik Queen misses in the paint75-72

Q3UTAJaren Jackson Jr. scores three (assist Keyonte George)75-75

Q3NOPJulian Reese misses in the paint75-75

Q3UTAJaren Jackson Jr. scores three (assist Darryn Peterson)75-78

Q3NOPDerik Queen misses at the rim75-78

Q3UTAKyle Filipowski scores at the rim (assist Ace Bailey)75-80

Q3NOPTrey Murphy III goes to the line, makes 2 of 277-80

Q3UTAJaren Jackson Jr. misses in the paint77-80

Q3NOPJeremiah Fears turns it over77-80

Q3UTAAce Bailey scores from midrange77-82

Q3NOPZion Williamson scores at the rim (assist Trey Murphy III)79-82

Q3UTAKyle Filipowski turns it over79-82

Q3NOPJeremiah Fears scores three (assist Herbert Jones)82-82

Q3UTAJosh Okogie scores corner three (assist Darryn Peterson)82-85

Q3NOPSaddiq Bey goes to the line, makes 1 of 283-85

Q3NOPDerik Queen misses in the paint83-85

Q3UTAAce Bailey misses from midrange, offensive rebound83-85

Q3UTABrice Sensabaugh scores at the rim (assist Isaiah Collier)83-87

Q3NOPBennedict Mathurin scores at the rim (assist Dejounte Murray)85-87

Q3UTALauri Markkanen misses at the rim85-87

Q3NOPBennedict Mathurin misses in the paint85-87

Q3UTALauri Markkanen scores in the paint (assist Isaiah Collier)85-89

Q3NOPBennedict Mathurin turns it over85-89

Q3UTADarryn Peterson turns it over85-89

Q3NOPDerik Queen misses from midrange, offensive rebound85-89

Q3NOPTrey Murphy III misses three85-89

Q3UTAKeyonte George misses at the rim85-89

Q3NOPBennedict Mathurin misses in the paint85-89

Q3UTALauri Markkanen goes to the line, makes 2 of 285-91

Q3NOPJeremiah Fears misses three, offensive rebound85-91

Q3NOPDejounte Murray scores in the paint87-91

Q3UTALauri Markkanen turns it over87-91

Q3NOPJordan Poole misses three87-91

Q3UTASvi Mykhailiuk misses three87-91

Q3NOPDejounte Murray scores in the paint89-91

Q3UTAIsaiah Collier scores at the rim89-93

Q3NOPJeremiah Fears misses in the paint, offensive rebound89-93

Q3NOPSaddiq Bey goes to the line, makes 2 of 291-93

Q3UTADarryn Peterson scores three (assist Brice Sensabaugh)91-96

Q3NOPJeremiah Fears scores at the rim93-96

Q3UTAJaren Jackson Jr. turns it over93-96

Q3NOPTrey Murphy III scores three (assist Zion Williamson)96-96

Q3UTAKeyonte George misses from midrange96-96

Q3NOPZion Williamson scores at the rim (assist Dejounte Murray)98-96

Q3UTADarryn Peterson turns it over98-96

Q3NOPBennedict Mathurin goes to the line, makes 2 of 2100-96

Q3UTAJaren Jackson Jr. scores in the paint100-98

Q3NOPDejounte Murray misses at the rim, offensive rebound100-98

Q3NOPBennedict Mathurin misses three100-98

Q3UTADarryn Peterson scores at the rim (assist Ace Bailey)100-100

Q3NOPDeAndre Jordan turns it over100-100

Q3UTALauri Markkanen scores corner three (assist Isaiah Collier)100-103

Q3NOPBryce McGowens misses three100-103

Q3UTALauri Markkanen goes to the line, makes 2 of 2100-105

Q3NOPBennedict Mathurin misses from midrange100-105

Q3UTAMo Bamba turns it over100-105

Q3NOPYves Missi turns it over100-105

Quarter 4

Q4UTAKyle Filipowski scores in the paint100-107

Q4NOPZion Williamson scores at the rim (assist Trey Murphy III)102-107

Q4UTALauri Markkanen misses three, offensive rebound102-107

Q4UTAKeyonte George misses in the paint, offensive rebound102-107

Q4UTAKeyonte George misses three102-107

Q4NOPSaddiq Bey scores corner three (assist Trey Murphy III)105-107

Q4UTAIsaiah Collier misses at the rim105-107

Q4NOPBennedict Mathurin misses at the rim, offensive rebound105-107

Q4NOPDeAndre Jordan scores at the rim107-107

Q4UTAAce Bailey misses three, offensive rebound107-107

Q4UTASvi Mykhailiuk goes to the line, makes 2 of 2107-109

Q4NOPTrey Murphy III scores three (assist Dejounte Murray)110-109

Q4UTAAce Bailey misses three110-109

Q4NOPHerbert Jones scores at the rim112-109

Q4UTAKeyonte George misses in the paint112-109

Q4NOPTrendon Watford misses three112-109

Q4UTAKeyonte George misses three, offensive rebound112-109

Q4UTADarryn Peterson goes to the line, makes 2 of 2112-111

Q4NOPSaddiq Bey misses in the paint112-111

Q4UTAJaren Jackson Jr. scores in the paint (assist Isaiah Collier)112-113

Q4NOPJulian Reese misses in the paint112-113

Q4UTAIsaiah Collier scores at the rim, and one112-116

Q4NOPJordan Poole scores three115-116

Q4UTALauri Markkanen scores from midrange (assist Svi Mykhailiuk)115-118

Q4NOPDejounte Murray misses three, offensive rebound115-118

Q4NOPBryce McGowens scores at the rim (assist Trendon Watford)117-118

Q4UTAKeyonte George misses three117-118

Q4NOPBennedict Mathurin misses in the paint, offensive rebound117-118

Q4NOPJeremiah Fears misses at the rim117-118

Q4UTALauri Markkanen scores at the rim (assist Isaiah Collier)117-120

Q4NOPKarlo Matković misses corner three117-120

Q4UTALauri Markkanen scores three (assist Keyonte George)117-123

Q4NOPDejounte Murray misses three, offensive rebound117-123

Q4NOPJulian Reese scores at the rim (assist Jeremiah Fears)119-123

Q4UTALauri Markkanen misses three119-123

Q4NOPDejounte Murray turns it over119-123

Q4UTAJosh Okogie scores at the rim (assist Darryn Peterson)119-125

Q4NOPZion Williamson scores in the paint (assist Dejounte Murray)121-125

Q4UTALauri Markkanen misses three121-125

Q4NOPZion Williamson scores in the paint123-125

Q4UTABrice Sensabaugh misses from midrange, offensive rebound123-125

Q4UTABrice Sensabaugh scores at the rim123-127

Q4NOPJordan Poole scores three (assist Yves Missi)126-127

Q4UTABrice Sensabaugh misses in the paint, offensive rebound126-127

Q4UTADarryn Peterson misses three126-127

Q4NOPTrey Murphy III misses from midrange126-127

Q4UTALauri Markkanen misses three126-127

Q4NOPDejounte Murray misses at the rim126-127

Q4UTALauri Markkanen turns it over126-127

Q4NOPSaddiq Bey misses three126-127

Q4UTAKyle Filipowski misses three126-127

Q4NOPJeremiah Fears goes to the line, makes 2 of 2128-127

Q4UTADarryn Peterson misses three128-127

Q4NOPJeremiah Fears turns it over128-127

Top 10 prop ideas

No prop ideas logged for this game: not enough props were posted before tip-off.

All player props

Sorted by how far the sim sits from 50%. Players new to their team are tagged: the sim is least sure about their role.

Player	Market	Line	Sim avg	Sim over	Lean	Sim + you