New York @ Boston
Tip-off 4:00 PM PT · Draft Kings lines · 5,000 sims · win chance for BOS
NBA backtest: the books beat this sim on sides and totals; props run slightly above base rates. Details
How the sim saw it
The sim has Boston winning 52.6% of 5,000 games, against 55% from the books. The median score is Boston 107, New York 107. In the most typical game: Boston leads by as many as 16 in the first half; Boston leads 58-44 at the break. Boston's 14-0 run in the 1st quarter is the biggest swing. Conley puts Boston ahead for good with 10:43 left in the 2nd. Tatum finds Pritchard 3 times. Towns finds Bridges 4 times. Boston leads by 17 at its high point in the 4th. New York gets within 1. Hart scores last; final 108-107 Boston.
New York wins 2,368 of the 5,000. Its chances rise when it makes 16+ threes (it wins 69%), wins the turnover battle (56%) or gets 31+ from Brunson (60%). The matchup to watch is Boston's ball security against New York's hands. Boston covers -2.5 in 47% and the game goes over 223.5 in 31%.
Full breakdown
Last time they met (Apr 9), New York won in New York, 112-106.
Tonight Boston is without Devin Carter.
Boston went 56-26 last season (4th best record in the NBA).
New York went 53-29 last season (6th best record in the NBA).
New York won the season series 3-1.
Luka Garza missed 3 of the 4 meetings.
OG Anunoby missed 2 of the 4 meetings.
Mohamed Diawara missed 2 of the 4 meetings.
Boston: gone: Jaylen Brown (now PHI), Anfernee Simons (now PHI); new: Paul George (from PHI), Mitchell Robinson (from NYK), Mike Conley (from MIN), Chris Cenac Jr. (rookie, #27 pick), Dillon Mitchell (rookie, #40 pick).
New York: gone: Mitchell Robinson (now BOS); new: Andre Drummond (from PHI), Jose Alvarado (from NOP), James Wiseman (from IND), Tyler Nickel (rookie, #47 pick).
Who's in the sim (top five by projected minutes listed first):
BOS: White, Tatum, Pritchard, George, Queta
Bench: Hauser, Robinson, Scheierman, Walsh, Conley, Garza, González (+3 under 8 min)
Out: Carter
No NBA history: Cenac (#27 pick, 8 min from past rookies), Mitchell (#40 pick, 3 min from past rookies)
NYK: Brunson, Anunoby, Bridges, Hart, Towns
Bench: McBride, Shamet, Drummond, Alvarado, Clarkson (+5 under 8 min)
No NBA history: Nickel (#47 pick, 3 min from past rookies)
Who gets hunted: last season shooters hit +2.5 points vs their usual FG% against Jalen Brunson and +2.3 against Paul George.
The stoppers on threes: OG Anunoby held shooters 2.4 points under their usual 3P%, Derrick White held shooters 1.5 points under their usual 3P%.
In the sim, Derrick White sees Brunson on 13% of their shots.
The matchup to watch: Boston's ball security vs New York's hands.
Boston turned it over on 11.8% of possessions last season (2nd fewest).
New York forced turnovers on 14.0% (10th most), with 8.1 steals (19th) and 3.9 blocks (29th) a game.
Shot diets.
Boston: 46.7% of shots from three (4th), 22.8% at the rim (30th).
New York: 42.8% of shots from three (12th), 29.8% at the rim (16th).
Boston's defense: fewest rim attempts allowed, 16th lowest opponent three-point % (35.8%).
New York's defense: 13th fewest rim attempts allowed, 20th lowest opponent three-point % (36.2%).
Boston's offense runs through Derrick White on the pick-and-roll ball handler: 5.7 a game last season, 25th most in the NBA.
0.92 points per play (top 34%), turnover on 10% of them.
When it goes to the roller: Boston's roll men scored 1.14 (10th in the league). Neemias Queta alone: 1.35.
New York faced 18.7 of those a game (6th most) and ranked 8th defending them. Against the roll man: 14th.
In the sim: 0.81 White-to-Tatum baskets a game (last season: 0.93).
With 5+ White assists, Boston wins 60.4%.
New York's offense lives on four plays: spot-up shots, transition, the pick-and-roll ball handler, isolation. It ranked 11th, 7th, 6th, 17th in points per play on them.
Boston's defense ranked 3rd, 20th, 20th, 7th against those same four.
Jalen Brunson in one split:
The pick-and-roll ball handler: 1.01 points per play (top 14%), 8.3 a game.
Isolation: 0.99 points per play (top 31%), 4.0 a game.
Boston's defense: 7th against isolation, 20th against the pick-and-roll ball handler.
Where New York can hit back:
- Boston was 25th defending the roll man. Karl-Anthony Towns ran 2.5 a game at 1.37 per play
- Boston was 20th defending the pick-and-roll ball handler. Jalen Brunson ran 8.3 a game at 1.01 per play
One check against real life:
Derrick White scored 16.0 points in his 4 games against New York last season, 22 of them on Dec 2. In our 5,000 sims: 14.4.
Jalen Brunson scored 25.5 points in his 4 games against Boston last season, 31 of them on Feb 8. In our 5,000 sims: 25.0.
Things you'll notice in the sim:
- Boston leads by as many as 16 in the first half; Boston leads 58-44 at the break
- Boston's 14-0 run in the 1st quarter is the biggest swing
- Conley puts Boston ahead for good with 10:43 left in the 2nd
- Tatum finds Pritchard 3 times
- Towns finds Bridges 4 times
- Boston leads by 17 at its high point in the 4th. New York gets within 1. Hart scores last; final 108-107 Boston
How New York wins (2,368 of the 5,000):
- It makes threes: 14.1 a game in its wins, 12.0 in its losses. At 16 or more, it wins 69%
- It wins the turnover battle: then it wins 56%
- Brunson scores 31 or more: then it wins 60%
Across all 5,000 sims:
Boston wins 52.6%. The books (Draft Kings) have Boston at 55%, ESPN's model at 56%.
Median score: Boston 107, New York 107
Boston covers -2.5 in 47%
Over 223.5 in 31%
Leans:
Biggest role disagreements (new to the team or the league, the books see a different role): Mitchell Robinson rebounds line 7.5, sim 4.5; Mitchell Robinson pts+reb line 12.5, sim 7.9; Andre Drummond points line 6.5, sim 4.2
Caution: tonight the sim sits 1.4 under the books' prop lines on average, so unders are inflated
- Karl-Anthony Towns under 4.5 assists (86%, sim avg 2.8)
- Karl-Anthony Towns under 23.5 pts+ast (84%, sim avg 17.9)
- Karl-Anthony Towns under 30.5 pts+reb (82%, sim avg 24.5)
- Josh Hart under 15.5 pts+ast (82%, sim avg 11.3)
Fine print: one game isn't a prediction. The percentages are the signal.
Our own backtest (2024-26): the books beat this sim on sides and totals. Prop leans beat the base rate by 1-4 points out of sample, not enough to prove profit. Treat it as a lens, not a bet.
Most typical game, play by play (NYK score first)
Top 10 prop ideas
No prop ideas logged for this game: not enough props were posted before tip-off.
All player props
Sorted by how far the sim sits from 50%. Players new to their team are tagged: the sim is least sure about their role.
| Player | Market | Line | Sim avg | Sim over | Lean | Sim + you |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mitchell Robinsonnew team | rebounds | 7.5 | 4.5 | 9% | under 91% | |
| Mitchell Robinsonnew team | pts+reb | 12.5 | 7.9 | 9% | under 91% | |
| Karl-Anthony Towns | assists | 4.5 | 2.8 | 14% | under 86% | |
| Karl-Anthony Towns | pts+ast | 23.5 | 17.9 | 16% | under 84% | |
| Karl-Anthony Towns | pts+reb | 30.5 | 24.5 | 18% | under 82% | |
| Josh Hart | pts+ast | 15.5 | 11.3 | 18% | under 82% | |
| Josh Hart | points | 11.5 | 7.8 | 18% | under 82% | |
| Andre Drummondnew team | points | 6.5 | 4.2 | 20% | under 80% | |
| OG Anunoby | pts+ast | 19.5 | 14.9 | 20% | under 80% | |
| Josh Hart | pts+reb | 18.5 | 14.6 | 21% | under 79% | |
| OG Anunoby | pts+reb | 22.5 | 18.1 | 22% | under 78% | |
| Mitchell Robinsonnew team | points | 5.5 | 3.4 | 22% | under 78% | |
| OG Anunoby | points | 17.5 | 13.4 | 22% | under 78% | |
| Karl-Anthony Towns | rebounds | 11.5 | 9.3 | 22% | under 78% | |
| Andre Drummondnew team | pts+reb | 12.5 | 9.8 | 23% | under 77% | |
| Jayson Tatum | assists | 6.5 | 4.9 | 23% | under 77% | |
| Josh Hart | threes | 1.5 | 0.9 | 24% | under 76% | |
| Karl-Anthony Towns | points | 18.5 | 15.2 | 27% | under 73% | |
| Paul Georgenew team | pts+reb | 23.5 | 19.9 | 28% | under 72% | |
| Jalen Brunson | assists | 6.5 | 5.3 | 28% | under 72% | |
| OG Anunoby | threes | 2.5 | 1.9 | 29% | under 71% | |
| Derrick White | pts+ast | 21.5 | 18.6 | 30% | under 70% | |
| Paul Georgenew team | pts+ast | 21.5 | 18.5 | 31% | under 69% | |
| Paul Georgenew team | points | 18.5 | 15.8 | 31% | under 69% | |
| Jayson Tatum | pts+reb | 35.5 | 31.9 | 32% | under 68% | |
| Jayson Tatum | pts+ast | 32.5 | 29.3 | 32% | under 68% | |
| Derrick White | points | 16.5 | 14.4 | 34% | under 66% | |
| Landry Shamet | threes | 1.5 | 1.2 | 34% | under 66% | |
| Andre Drummondnew team | rebounds | 6.5 | 5.7 | 34% | under 66% | |
| Neemias Queta | pts+reb | 14.5 | 12.9 | 34% | under 66% | |
| Landry Shamet | points | 6.5 | 5.5 | 34% | under 66% | |
| Jayson Tatum | rebounds | 8.5 | 7.6 | 35% | under 65% | |
| Neemias Queta | rebounds | 6.5 | 5.7 | 35% | under 65% | |
| Karl-Anthony Towns | threes | 1.5 | 1.3 | 36% | under 64% | |
| Jalen Brunson | pts+ast | 32.5 | 30.3 | 37% | under 63% | |
| Jayson Tatum | points | 26.5 | 24.3 | 37% | under 63% | |
| Mikal Bridges | threes | 1.5 | 1.3 | 37% | under 63% | |
| Jalen Brunson | rebounds | 2.5 | 3.2 | 63% | over 63% | |
| Payton Pritchard | pts+reb | 19.5 | 18.0 | 39% | under 61% | |
| Mikal Bridges | pts+reb | 15.5 | 14.5 | 39% | under 61% | |
| Derrick White | assists | 4.5 | 4.1 | 39% | under 61% | |
| Sam Hauser | points | 6.5 | 6.3 | 40% | under 60% | |
| Derrick White | pts+reb | 19.5 | 18.2 | 40% | under 60% | |
| Paul Georgenew team | rebounds | 4.5 | 4.2 | 40% | under 60% | |
| Jayson Tatum | threes | 2.5 | 3.1 | 60% | over 60% | |
| Miles McBride | threes | 1.5 | 1.4 | 41% | under 59% | |
| Payton Pritchard | rebounds | 3.5 | 3.3 | 41% | under 59% | |
| Mikal Bridges | pts+ast | 14.5 | 13.8 | 41% | under 59% | |
| Mikal Bridges | rebounds | 3.5 | 3.3 | 42% | under 58% | |
| Sam Hauser | pts+reb | 9.5 | 9.1 | 42% | under 58% | |
| Sam Hauser | pts+ast | 7.5 | 7.1 | 42% | under 58% | |
| Payton Pritchard | pts+ast | 19.5 | 18.7 | 43% | under 57% | |
| Payton Pritchard | points | 15.5 | 14.7 | 43% | under 57% | |
| OG Anunoby | assists | 1.5 | 1.5 | 43% | under 57% | |
| Payton Pritchard | assists | 3.5 | 3.9 | 56% | over 56% | |
| Miles McBride | points | 6.5 | 6.5 | 44% | under 56% | |
| Neemias Queta | points | 7.5 | 7.1 | 44% | under 56% | |
| Jalen Brunson | threes | 2.5 | 2.4 | 44% | under 56% | |
| Mikal Bridges | points | 11.5 | 11.2 | 44% | under 56% | |
| Jalen Brunson | points | 25.5 | 25.0 | 45% | under 55% | |
| Paul Georgenew team | threes | 2.5 | 2.5 | 45% | under 55% | |
| Payton Pritchard | threes | 2.5 | 2.5 | 46% | under 54% | |
| Jalen Brunson | pts+reb | 28.5 | 28.2 | 47% | under 53% | |
| Sam Hauser | rebounds | 2.5 | 2.8 | 53% | over 53% | |
| Derrick White | rebounds | 3.5 | 3.8 | 52% | over 52% | |
| Josh Hart | rebounds | 6.5 | 6.8 | 52% | over 52% | |
| Mikal Bridges | assists | 2.5 | 2.6 | 48% | under 52% | |
| Josh Hart | assists | 3.5 | 3.5 | 48% | under 52% | |
| Derrick White | threes | 2.5 | 2.6 | 48% | under 52% | |
| Paul Georgenew team | assists | 2.5 | 2.7 | 52% | over 52% | |
| OG Anunoby | rebounds | 4.5 | 4.7 | 51% | over 51% | |
| Sam Hauser | threes | 1.5 | 1.7 | 50% | under 50% |