Brooklyn @ Cleveland
Tip-off 4:30 PM PT · Draft Kings lines · 5,000 sims · win chance for CLE
NBA backtest: the books beat this sim on sides and totals; props run slightly above base rates. Details
How the sim saw it
The sim has Cleveland winning 85.0% of 5,000 games, against 80% from the books. The median score is Cleveland 122, Brooklyn 108. In the most typical game: Cleveland leads by as many as 19 in the first half; Cleveland leads 65-46 at the break. Cleveland's 11-0 run in the 2nd quarter is the biggest swing. Watson puts Cleveland ahead for good with 5:23 left in the 2nd. Mobley finds Allen 3 times. Traore goes 4 of 8 off Brooklyn's bench. Cleveland leads by 22 at its high point in the 4th. Brooklyn gets within 8. Brown scores last; final 123-108 Cleveland.
Brooklyn wins 749 of the 5,000. Its chances rise when it makes 17+ threes (it wins 32%), wins the turnover battle (24%) or gets 24+ from M. Porter (24%). The matchup to watch is Cleveland's ball security against Brooklyn's hands. Cleveland covers -11.5 in 62% and the game goes over 228.5 in 53%.
Full breakdown
A year ago tonight, Cleveland won in Brooklyn, 131-124.
Last time they met (Mar 1), Cleveland won in Brooklyn, 106-102.
Cleveland went 52-30 last season (8th best record in the NBA).
Brooklyn went 20-62 last season (28th best record in the NBA).
Cleveland won the season series 3-0.
Nae'Qwan Tomlin missed 2 of the 3 meetings.
Thomas Bryant missed 2 of the 3 meetings.
Drake Powell missed 2 of the 3 meetings.
Cleveland: gone: Dean Wade (now PHI), De'Andre Hunter (now SAC); new: James Harden (from LAC), Peyton Watson (from DEN), Mario Hezonja (no NBA minutes last season), Meleek Thomas (rookie, #34 pick).
Brooklyn: gone: Nic Claxton (now CHI), Ziaire Williams (now LAL); new: Julius Randle (from MIN), Keon Ellis (from SAC), Mikel Brown Jr. (no NBA minutes last season), Josh Minott (from BOS), Joshua Jefferson (rookie, #28 pick).
Who's in the sim (top five by projected minutes listed first):
CLE: Harden, Mitchell, Mobley, Watson, Allen
Bench: Merrill, Tyson, Hezonja, C. Porter, Tomlin (+5 under 8 min)
No NBA history: Thomas (#34 pick, 3 min from past rookies)
BKN: Randle, M. Porter, Clowney, Dëmin, Mann
Bench: Traore, Ellis, Saraf, Powell, Wolf, Sharpe, Brown, Johnson, Minott (+1 under 8 min)
Out: Bilodeau
No NBA history: Jefferson (#28 pick, 7 min from past rookies)
Who gets hunted: last season shooters hit +3.6 points vs their usual FG% against Michael Porter Jr. and +2.9 against Donovan Mitchell.
The stoppers on threes: Sam Merrill held shooters 2.5 points under their usual 3P%, Peyton Watson held shooters 2.5 points under their usual 3P%.
In the sim, Peyton Watson sees M. Porter on 15% of their shots.
The matchup to watch: Cleveland's ball security vs Brooklyn's hands.
Cleveland turned it over on 13.0% of possessions last season (10th fewest).
Brooklyn forced turnovers on 13.7% (16th most), with 8.0 steals (22nd) and 4.3 blocks (23rd) a game.
Shot diets.
Cleveland: 44.2% of shots from three (9th), 30.2% at the rim (14th).
Brooklyn: 45.5% of shots from three (6th), 31.6% at the rim (8th).
Cleveland's defense: 14th fewest rim attempts allowed, 26th lowest opponent three-point % (37.2%).
Brooklyn's defense: 29th fewest rim attempts allowed, 30th lowest opponent three-point % (38.1%).
Cleveland's offense runs through Donovan Mitchell on the pick-and-roll ball handler: 8.5 a game last season, 5th most in the NBA.
1.02 points per play (top 13%), turnover on 13% of them.
When it goes to the roller: Cleveland's roll men scored 1.07 (22nd in the league). Jarrett Allen alone: 1.14.
Brooklyn faced 12.0 of those a game (30th most) and ranked 11th defending them. Against the roll man: 23rd.
In the sim: 0.85 Mitchell-to-Mobley baskets a game (last season: 1.46).
With 6+ Mitchell assists, Cleveland wins 89.9%.
Brooklyn's offense lives on four plays: spot-up shots, transition, the pick-and-roll ball handler, handoffs. It ranked 29th, 28th, 29th, 28th in points per play on them.
Cleveland's defense ranked 24th, 6th, 6th, 23rd against those same four.
Michael Porter Jr. in one split:
Handoffs: 1.00 points per play (top 36%), 3.9 a game.
Spot-up shots: 0.95 points per play (bottom 32%), 4.8 a game.
Cleveland's defense: 24th against spot-up shots, 23rd against handoffs.
Where Brooklyn can hit back:
- Cleveland was 24th defending spot-up shots. Noah Clowney ran 5.3 a game at 1.00 per play
- Cleveland was 23rd defending handoffs. Michael Porter Jr. ran 3.9 a game at 1.00 per play
One check against real life:
Donovan Mitchell scored 26.0 points in his 2 games against Brooklyn last season, 35 of them on Oct 24. In our 5,000 sims: 27.3.
Michael Porter Jr. scored 23.7 points in his 3 games against Cleveland last season, 31 of them on Oct 24. In our 5,000 sims: 18.3.
Things you'll notice in the sim:
- Cleveland leads by as many as 19 in the first half; Cleveland leads 65-46 at the break
- Cleveland's 11-0 run in the 2nd quarter is the biggest swing
- Watson puts Cleveland ahead for good with 5:23 left in the 2nd
- Mobley finds Allen 3 times
- Traore goes 4 of 8 off Brooklyn's bench
- Cleveland leads by 22 at its high point in the 4th. Brooklyn gets within 8. Brown scores last; final 123-108 Cleveland
How Brooklyn wins (749 of the 5,000):
- It makes threes: 16.1 a game in its wins, 13.4 in its losses. At 17 or more, it wins 32%
- It wins the turnover battle: then it wins 24%
- M. Porter scores 24 or more: then it wins 24%
Across all 5,000 sims:
Cleveland wins 85.0%. The books (Draft Kings) have Cleveland at 80%, ESPN's model at 80%.
Median score: Cleveland 122, Brooklyn 108
Cleveland covers -11.5 in 62%
Over 228.5 in 53%
Leans:
Biggest role disagreements (new to the team or the league, the books see a different role): Keon Ellis assists line 2.5, sim 0.9; Keon Ellis pts+ast line 9.5, sim 5.1; Keon Ellis pts+reb line 9.5, sim 5.6
Caution: tonight the sim sits 1.5 under the books' prop lines on average, so unders are inflated
- Day'Ron Sharpe under 19.5 pts+reb (98%, sim avg 10.0)
- Day'Ron Sharpe under 8.5 rebounds (97%, sim avg 4.2)
- Day'Ron Sharpe under 13.5 pts+ast (94%, sim avg 7.5)
- Day'Ron Sharpe under 10.5 points (90%, sim avg 5.9)
Fine print: one game isn't a prediction. The percentages are the signal.
Our own backtest (2024-26): the books beat this sim on sides and totals. Prop leans beat the base rate by 1-4 points out of sample, not enough to prove profit. Treat it as a lens, not a bet.
Most typical game, play by play (BKN score first)
Top 10 prop ideas
The sim's 10 strongest prop leans, logged Sat Oct 24, 9:17 AM and graded after the game. Players new to their team are left out. Not a proven edge: on 2024-26 games, picking each game's 10 strongest leans lost 4-7% at the books' prices, because the books already lean the same way. ESPN doesn't say which posted price is the over, so the price shown is the worse of the two. Prop ideas so far: 73-70 (51%), -14.4 units at the worse price.
| Player | Idea | Sim | Price | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Day'Ron Sharpe | under 19.5 pts+reb | 98% | -115 | 15 ✓ |
| Day'Ron Sharpe | under 8.5 rebounds | 97% | -119 | 8 ✓ |
| Day'Ron Sharpe | under 13.5 pts+ast | 94% | -123 | 8 ✓ |
| Day'Ron Sharpe | under 10.5 points | 90% | -115 | 7 ✓ |
| Egor Dëmin | under 14.5 pts+ast | 84% | -117 | 28 ✗ |
| Egor Dëmin | under 14.5 pts+reb | 83% | -121 | 26 ✗ |
| Jarrett Allen | under 21.5 pts+reb | 81% | -122 | 29 ✗ |
| Egor Dëmin | under 11.5 points | 81% | -129 | 22 ✗ |
| Egor Dëmin | under 3.5 assists | 80% | -121 | 6 ✗ |
| Egor Dëmin | under 3.5 rebounds | 80% | -165 | 4 ✗ |
All player props
Sorted by how far the sim sits from 50%. Players new to their team are tagged: the sim is least sure about their role.
| Player | Market | Line | Sim avg | Sim over | Lean | Sim + you |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Day'Ron Sharpe | pts+reb | 19.5 | 10.0 | 2% | under 98% | |
| Day'Ron Sharpe | rebounds | 8.5 | 4.2 | 3% | under 97% | |
| Keon Ellisnew team | assists | 2.5 | 0.9 | 6% | under 94% | |
| Day'Ron Sharpe | pts+ast | 13.5 | 7.5 | 6% | under 94% | |
| Day'Ron Sharpe | points | 10.5 | 5.9 | 10% | under 90% | |
| Keon Ellisnew team | pts+ast | 9.5 | 5.1 | 10% | under 90% | |
| Keon Ellisnew team | pts+reb | 9.5 | 5.6 | 14% | under 86% | |
| Egor Dëmin | pts+ast | 14.5 | 10.0 | 16% | under 84% | |
| Keon Ellisnew team | points | 7.5 | 4.2 | 16% | under 84% | |
| Egor Dëmin | pts+reb | 14.5 | 10.1 | 17% | under 83% | |
| Jarrett Allen | pts+reb | 21.5 | 17.1 | 19% | under 81% | |
| Egor Dëmin | points | 11.5 | 7.7 | 19% | under 81% | |
| Keon Ellisnew team | rebounds | 2.5 | 1.5 | 19% | under 81% | |
| Keon Ellisnew team | threes | 1.5 | 0.8 | 20% | under 80% | |
| Egor Dëmin | assists | 3.5 | 2.3 | 20% | under 80% | |
| Egor Dëmin | rebounds | 3.5 | 2.3 | 20% | under 80% | |
| Day'Ron Sharpe | assists | 2.5 | 1.6 | 23% | under 77% | |
| Jarrett Allen | rebounds | 8.5 | 6.7 | 23% | under 77% | |
| Jarrett Allen | points | 13.5 | 10.4 | 24% | under 76% | |
| Jarrett Allen | pts+ast | 14.5 | 11.6 | 25% | under 75% | |
| Julius Randlenew team | pts+reb | 27.5 | 23.7 | 27% | under 73% | |
| Peyton Watsonnew team | pts+reb | 17.5 | 14.5 | 28% | under 72% | |
| Michael Porter Jr. | pts+reb | 27.5 | 23.7 | 28% | under 72% | |
| Evan Mobley | pts+reb | 26.5 | 23.2 | 29% | under 71% | |
| Peyton Watsonnew team | threes | 1.5 | 1.1 | 29% | under 71% | |
| Julius Randlenew team | pts+ast | 25.5 | 22.1 | 29% | under 71% | |
| Michael Porter Jr. | threes | 3.5 | 2.7 | 29% | under 71% | |
| Peyton Watsonnew team | pts+ast | 14.5 | 12.1 | 30% | under 70% | |
| Michael Porter Jr. | rebounds | 6.5 | 5.4 | 30% | under 70% | |
| Michael Porter Jr. | pts+ast | 23.5 | 20.4 | 31% | under 69% | |
| Peyton Watsonnew team | points | 12.5 | 10.4 | 31% | under 69% | |
| Julius Randlenew team | rebounds | 6.5 | 5.5 | 32% | under 68% | |
| Jarrett Allen | assists | 1.5 | 1.2 | 33% | under 67% | |
| Julius Randlenew team | points | 20.5 | 18.2 | 33% | under 67% | |
| Evan Mobley | points | 17.5 | 15.5 | 34% | under 66% | |
| James Hardennew team | pts+reb | 21.5 | 24.7 | 66% | over 66% | |
| Michael Porter Jr. | points | 20.5 | 18.3 | 35% | under 65% | |
| Jaylon Tyson | rebounds | 4.5 | 3.9 | 35% | under 65% | |
| Michael Porter Jr. | assists | 2.5 | 2.1 | 36% | under 64% | |
| Evan Mobley | threes | 0.5 | 1.0 | 64% | over 64% | |
| Evan Mobley | pts+ast | 20.5 | 18.8 | 36% | under 64% | |
| Donovan Mitchell | threes | 2.5 | 3.2 | 63% | over 63% | |
| Julius Randlenew team | assists | 4.5 | 4.0 | 37% | under 63% | |
| Jaylon Tyson | threes | 1.5 | 1.3 | 37% | under 63% | |
| Evan Mobley | rebounds | 8.5 | 7.8 | 38% | under 62% | |
| James Hardennew team | points | 17.5 | 20.0 | 62% | over 62% | |
| James Hardennew team | pts+ast | 24.5 | 27.0 | 62% | over 62% | |
| Sam Merrill | points | 8.5 | 7.6 | 38% | under 62% | |
| Peyton Watsonnew team | rebounds | 4.5 | 4.1 | 40% | under 60% | |
| Julius Randlenew team | threes | 1.5 | 1.4 | 40% | under 60% | |
| Jaylon Tyson | pts+reb | 13.5 | 12.8 | 41% | under 59% | |
| Jaylon Tyson | points | 9.5 | 8.9 | 41% | under 59% | |
| Donovan Mitchell | points | 25.5 | 27.3 | 58% | over 58% | |
| Evan Mobley | assists | 3.5 | 3.3 | 42% | under 58% | |
| Donovan Mitchell | assists | 4.5 | 4.3 | 42% | under 58% | |
| James Hardennew team | assists | 6.5 | 7.0 | 56% | over 56% | |
| Sam Merrill | threes | 1.5 | 1.8 | 55% | over 55% | |
| Donovan Mitchell | pts+reb | 30.5 | 31.7 | 55% | over 55% | |
| Donovan Mitchell | pts+ast | 30.5 | 31.5 | 54% | over 54% | |
| Donovan Mitchell | rebounds | 4.5 | 4.5 | 46% | under 54% | |
| James Hardennew team | rebounds | 4.5 | 4.7 | 51% | over 51% | |
| Peyton Watsonnew team | assists | 1.5 | 1.7 | 51% | over 51% | |
| Egor Dëmin | threes | 1.5 | 1.7 | 51% | over 51% | |
| James Hardennew team | threes | 2.5 | 2.7 | 50% | over 50% |