Houston @ Atlanta
Tip-off 5:30 PM PT · Draft Kings lines · 5,000 sims · win chance for HOU
NBA backtest: the books beat this sim on sides and totals; props run slightly above base rates. Details
How the sim saw it
The sim has Houston winning 55.9% of 5,000 games, against 49% from the books. The median score is Atlanta 112, Houston 114. In the most typical game: Atlanta leads by as many as 8 in the first half; Atlanta leads 60-57 at the break. Atlanta's 12-0 run in the 1st quarter is the biggest swing. VanVleet puts Houston ahead for good with 1:35 left in the 3rd. Daniels finds McCollum 3 times. Eason goes 5 of 9 off Houston's bench. Houston leads by 7 at its high point in the 4th. Atlanta gets within 1. Johnson scores last; final 114-111 Houston.
Atlanta wins 2,205 of the 5,000. Its chances rise when it makes 17+ threes (it wins 67%), wins the turnover battle (54%) or gets 24+ from Johnson (54%). The matchup to watch is Atlanta's ball security against Houston's hands. Atlanta covers -1.5 in 42% and the game goes over 227.5 in 47%.
Full breakdown
Last time they met (Mar 20), Houston won in Houston, 117-95.
Tonight Atlanta is without Mouhamed Gueye.
Tonight Houston is without Reed Sheppard.
Atlanta went 46-36 last season (11th best record in the NBA).
Houston went 52-30 last season (8th best record in the NBA).
Houston won the season series 2-0.
Atlanta: gone: Zaccharie Risacher (now DAL), Vít Krejčí (now POR); new: Luguentz Dort (from OKC), Aaron Wiggins (from OKC), Jock Landale (from MEM), Kingston Flemings (no NBA minutes last season), Keshon Gilbert (from WAS), Jalen Wilson (from BKN), Dorian Finney-Smith (from HOU), RayJ Dennis (from IND).
Houston: gone: Josh Okogie (now UTA); new: Fred VanVleet (no NBA minutes last season), Marcus Smart (from LAL), Bogdan Bogdanović (from LAC), Oscar Tshiebwe (from UTA), Julian Phillips (from CHI), Quadir Copeland (no NBA minutes last season).
Who's in the sim (top five by projected minutes listed first):
ATL: Johnson, Alexander-Walker, Daniels, Okongwu, McCollum
Bench: Dort, Wiggins, Landale, Flemings, Gilbert, Kispert, Finney-Smith, Wilson (+2 under 8 min)
Out: Gueye, Veesaar
HOU: Thompson, Durant, Smith, VanVleet, Sengun
Bench: Smart, Eason, Adams, Bogdanović, Tshiebwe (+5 under 8 min)
Out: Sheppard
No NBA history: Copeland (undrafted, 2 min from past rookies)
Who gets hunted: last season shooters hit +6.1 points vs their usual FG% against Nickeil Alexander-Walker and +2.9 against Alperen Sengun.
The stoppers on threes: Jalen Johnson held shooters 2.7 points under their usual 3P%, Amen Thompson held shooters 2.3 points under their usual 3P%.
In the sim, Amen Thompson sees Alexander-Walker on 18% of their shots.
The matchup to watch: Atlanta's ball security vs Houston's hands.
Atlanta turned it over on 12.9% of possessions last season (8th fewest).
Houston forced turnovers on 12.9% (21st most), with 8.5 steals (14th) and 5.8 blocks (3rd) a game.
Shot diets.
Atlanta: 42.9% of shots from three (11th), 30.6% at the rim (13th).
Houston: 35.0% of shots from three (28th), 29.1% at the rim (21st).
Atlanta's defense: 26th fewest rim attempts allowed, 12th lowest opponent three-point % (35.5%).
Houston's defense: 11th fewest rim attempts allowed, 7th lowest opponent three-point % (35.1%).
Houston's offense runs through Alperen Sengun on post-ups: 4.9 a game last season, 3rd most in the NBA.
0.97 points per play (bottom 46%), turnover on 16% of them.
Atlanta faced 4.2 of those a game (12th most) and ranked 7th defending them.
In the sim: 1.09 Sengun-to-Durant baskets a game (last season: 1.62).
With 6+ Sengun assists, Houston wins 65.8%.
Atlanta's offense lives on four plays: spot-up shots, transition, the pick-and-roll ball handler, cuts. It ranked 7th, 16th, 24th, 20th in points per play on them.
Houston's defense ranked 23rd, 12th, 4th, 1st against those same four.
Jalen Johnson in one split:
Spot-up shots: 1.06 points per play (top 45%), 3.2 a game.
The pick-and-roll ball handler: 0.77 points per play (bottom 34%), 5.4 a game.
Houston's defense: 4th against the pick-and-roll ball handler, 23rd against spot-up shots.
Where Atlanta can hit back:
- Houston was 26th defending handoffs. CJ McCollum ran 1.5 a game at 0.89 per play
- Houston was 23rd defending spot-up shots. Luguentz Dort ran 5.4 a game at 1.03 per play
One check against real life:
Alperen Sengun scored 12.0 points in his 2 games against Atlanta last season, 15 of them on Mar 20. In our 5,000 sims: 18.8.
Jalen Johnson scored 14 in his one game against Houston last season. In our 5,000 sims: 18.4.
Things you'll notice in the sim:
- Atlanta leads by as many as 8 in the first half; Atlanta leads 60-57 at the break
- Atlanta's 12-0 run in the 1st quarter is the biggest swing
- VanVleet puts Houston ahead for good with 1:35 left in the 3rd
- Daniels finds McCollum 3 times
- Eason goes 5 of 9 off Houston's bench
- Houston leads by 7 at its high point in the 4th. Atlanta gets within 1. Johnson scores last; final 114-111 Houston
How Atlanta wins (2,205 of the 5,000):
- It makes threes: 15.2 a game in its wins, 12.9 in its losses. At 17 or more, it wins 67%
- It wins the turnover battle: then it wins 54%
- Johnson scores 24 or more: then it wins 54%
Across all 5,000 sims:
Houston wins 55.9%. The books (Draft Kings) have Houston at 49%, ESPN's model at 44%.
Median score: Atlanta 112, Houston 114
Atlanta covers -1.5 in 42%
Over 227.5 in 47%
Leans:
Biggest role disagreements (new to the team or the league, the books see a different role): Aaron Wiggins pts+reb line 15.5, sim 9.0; Aaron Wiggins points line 11.5, sim 7.0; Aaron Wiggins rebounds line 3.5, sim 2.0
Caution: tonight the sim sits 1.5 under the books' prop lines on average, so unders are inflated
- Amen Thompson under 8.5 rebounds (79%, sim avg 6.5)
- Jalen Johnson under 9.5 rebounds (77%, sim avg 7.6)
- Dyson Daniels under 6.5 rebounds (75%, sim avg 5.1)
- Amen Thompson under 5.5 assists (74%, sim avg 4.3)
Fine print: one game isn't a prediction. The percentages are the signal.
Our own backtest (2024-26): the books beat this sim on sides and totals. Prop leans beat the base rate by 1-4 points out of sample, not enough to prove profit. Treat it as a lens, not a bet.
Most typical game, play by play (HOU score first)
Top 10 prop ideas
The sim's 10 strongest prop leans, logged Sat Oct 24, 9:17 AM and graded after the game. Players new to their team are left out. Not a proven edge: on 2024-26 games, picking each game's 10 strongest leans lost 4-7% at the books' prices, because the books already lean the same way. ESPN doesn't say which posted price is the over, so the price shown is the worse of the two. Prop ideas so far: 73-70 (51%), -14.4 units at the worse price.
| Player | Idea | Sim | Price | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amen Thompson | under 8.5 rebounds | 79% | -125 | 11 ✗ |
| Jalen Johnson | under 9.5 rebounds | 77% | -117 | 9 ✓ |
| Dyson Daniels | under 6.5 rebounds | 75% | -139 | 8 ✗ |
| Amen Thompson | under 5.5 assists | 74% | -149 | 6 ✗ |
| Amen Thompson | under 25.5 pts+reb | 74% | -115 | 28 ✗ |
| Nickeil Alexander-Walker | under 21.5 pts+ast | 74% | -116 | 22 ✗ |
| Nickeil Alexander-Walker | under 21.5 pts+reb | 74% | -117 | 23 ✗ |
| Tari Eason | under 9.5 points | 73% | -116 | 19 ✗ |
| Nickeil Alexander-Walker | under 18.5 points | 72% | -120 | 18 ✓ |
| Onyeka Okongwu | under 19.5 pts+reb | 72% | -122 | 14 ✓ |
All player props
Sorted by how far the sim sits from 50%. Players new to their team are tagged: the sim is least sure about their role.
| Player | Market | Line | Sim avg | Sim over | Lean | Sim + you |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Wigginsnew team | pts+reb | 15.5 | 9.0 | 8% | under 92% | |
| Aaron Wigginsnew team | points | 11.5 | 7.0 | 14% | under 86% | |
| Aaron Wigginsnew team | rebounds | 3.5 | 2.0 | 16% | under 84% | |
| Amen Thompson | rebounds | 8.5 | 6.5 | 21% | under 79% | |
| Jalen Johnson | rebounds | 9.5 | 7.6 | 23% | under 77% | |
| Dyson Daniels | rebounds | 6.5 | 5.1 | 25% | under 75% | |
| Amen Thompson | assists | 5.5 | 4.3 | 26% | under 74% | |
| Amen Thompson | pts+reb | 25.5 | 21.7 | 26% | under 74% | |
| Nickeil Alexander-Walker | pts+ast | 21.5 | 17.9 | 26% | under 74% | |
| Nickeil Alexander-Walker | pts+reb | 21.5 | 17.9 | 26% | under 74% | |
| Tari Eason | points | 9.5 | 7.2 | 27% | under 73% | |
| Nickeil Alexander-Walker | points | 18.5 | 15.2 | 28% | under 72% | |
| Onyeka Okongwu | pts+reb | 19.5 | 16.4 | 28% | under 72% | |
| Dyson Daniels | pts+reb | 17.5 | 14.9 | 28% | under 72% | |
| Aaron Wigginsnew team | threes | 1.5 | 1.0 | 28% | under 72% | |
| Amen Thompson | pts+ast | 22.5 | 19.5 | 29% | under 71% | |
| Nickeil Alexander-Walker | rebounds | 3.5 | 2.7 | 29% | under 71% | |
| CJ McCollum | assists | 3.5 | 2.7 | 29% | under 71% | |
| Alperen Sengun | assists | 5.5 | 4.5 | 29% | under 71% | |
| Jalen Johnson | pts+reb | 29.5 | 26.0 | 29% | under 71% | |
| Alperen Sengun | rebounds | 8.5 | 7.2 | 29% | under 71% | |
| Alperen Sengun | pts+reb | 29.5 | 26.0 | 30% | under 70% | |
| Kevin Durant | threes | 1.5 | 2.3 | 68% | over 68% | |
| Amen Thompson | points | 17.5 | 15.2 | 33% | under 67% | |
| Kevin Durant | assists | 4.5 | 3.8 | 33% | under 67% | |
| Onyeka Okongwu | points | 12.5 | 10.7 | 33% | under 67% | |
| Onyeka Okongwu | threes | 1.5 | 1.2 | 34% | under 66% | |
| Onyeka Okongwu | rebounds | 6.5 | 5.7 | 34% | under 66% | |
| CJ McCollum | threes | 2.5 | 2.1 | 35% | under 65% | |
| Onyeka Okongwu | pts+ast | 14.5 | 13.0 | 35% | under 65% | |
| Alperen Sengun | pts+ast | 25.5 | 23.3 | 35% | under 65% | |
| CJ McCollum | pts+reb | 19.5 | 17.6 | 36% | under 64% | |
| Jalen Johnson | pts+ast | 26.5 | 24.4 | 36% | under 64% | |
| Alperen Sengun | points | 20.5 | 18.8 | 38% | under 62% | |
| Jabari Smith Jr. | rebounds | 6.5 | 5.9 | 38% | under 62% | |
| Jabari Smith Jr. | pts+reb | 20.5 | 19.0 | 38% | under 62% | |
| Jabari Smith Jr. | points | 14.5 | 13.1 | 38% | under 62% | |
| Kevin Durant | rebounds | 5.5 | 5.0 | 38% | under 62% | |
| Jalen Johnson | assists | 6.5 | 6.0 | 39% | under 61% | |
| CJ McCollum | points | 16.5 | 15.2 | 39% | under 61% | |
| Dyson Daniels | pts+ast | 15.5 | 14.4 | 39% | under 61% | |
| Onyeka Okongwu | assists | 2.5 | 2.3 | 40% | under 60% | |
| Dyson Daniels | points | 10.5 | 9.8 | 41% | under 59% | |
| Jabari Smith Jr. | threes | 1.5 | 2.0 | 59% | over 59% | |
| CJ McCollum | rebounds | 2.5 | 2.4 | 41% | under 59% | |
| Jalen Johnson | points | 19.5 | 18.4 | 41% | under 59% | |
| Jalen Johnson | threes | 1.5 | 1.4 | 41% | under 59% | |
| Kevin Durant | pts+ast | 28.5 | 28.1 | 45% | under 55% | |
| Kevin Durant | points | 24.5 | 24.3 | 46% | under 54% | |
| Kevin Durant | pts+reb | 29.5 | 29.3 | 46% | under 54% | |
| Nickeil Alexander-Walker | threes | 2.5 | 2.5 | 47% | under 53% | |
| Nickeil Alexander-Walker | assists | 2.5 | 2.7 | 51% | over 51% | |
| Dyson Daniels | assists | 4.5 | 4.6 | 49% | under 51% |