Milwaukee @ Philadelphia
Tip-off 4:30 PM PT · Draft Kings lines · 5,000 sims · win chance for PHI
NBA backtest: the books beat this sim on sides and totals; props run slightly above base rates. Details
How the sim saw it
The sim has Philadelphia winning 63.5% of 5,000 games, against 84% from the books. The median score is Philadelphia 119, Milwaukee 114. In the most typical game: Philadelphia leads by as many as 9 in the first half; Philadelphia leads 64-58 at the break. Philadelphia's 12-0 run in the 1st quarter is the biggest swing. Embiid puts Philadelphia ahead for good with 7:31 left in the 2nd. Maxey finds James 3 times. James goes 5 of 7 off Philadelphia's bench. Philadelphia leads by 16 at its high point in the 4th. Milwaukee gets within 3. Herro scores last; final 120-114 Philadelphia.
Milwaukee wins 1,824 of the 5,000. Its chances rise when it makes 19+ threes (it wins 60%), wins the turnover battle (55%) or gets 24+ from Herro (48%). The matchup to watch is Philadelphia's ball security against Milwaukee's hands. Philadelphia covers -12.5 in 33% and the game goes over 235.5 in 46%.
Full breakdown
Last time they met (Apr 12), Philadelphia won in Philadelphia, 126-106.
Tonight Philadelphia is without Dominick Barlow.
Philadelphia went 45-37 last season (13th best record in the NBA).
Milwaukee went 32-50 last season (21st best record in the NBA).
Philadelphia won the season series 4-0.
Pete Nance missed 2 of the 4 meetings.
Philadelphia: gone: Quentin Grimes (now LAL), Kelly Oubre Jr. (now IND), Andre Drummond (now NYK); new: Jaylen Brown (from BOS), LeBron James (from LAL), Anfernee Simons (from BOS), Dean Wade (from CLE), Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (from MEM), Caleb Love (from POR), Rayan Rupert (from POR), Labaron Philon Jr. (rookie, #22 pick).
Milwaukee: gone: Bobby Portis (now MIA), Kevin Porter Jr. (off the league rosters); new: Tyler Herro (from MIA), Jaime Jaquez Jr. (from MIA), Kel'el Ware (from MIA), Kasparas Jakučionis (from MIA), Caris LeVert (from DET), Kam Jones (from IND).
Who's in the sim (top five by projected minutes listed first):
PHI: Maxey, Brown, Edgecombe, Embiid, Simons
Bench: James, Caldwell-Pope, Love, Wade, Rupert, Bona, Edwards (+2 under 8 min)
Out: Barlow, Fall, Hukporti
Maybe: James (50% to play, minutes scaled), Wade (50% to play, minutes scaled)
No NBA history: Philon (#22 pick, 7 min from past rookies)
MIL: Herro, Rollins, Jaquez, Turner, Kuzma
Bench: Green, Ryan, Trent, Ware, Dieng, Jakučionis, Sims, LeVert, Nance, Jones
Who gets hunted: last season shooters hit +3.9 points vs their usual FG% against Tyler Herro and +1.2 against Jaime Jaquez Jr..
The stoppers on threes: VJ Edgecombe held shooters 2.7 points under their usual 3P%, Joel Embiid held shooters 1.9 points under their usual 3P%.
In the sim, Jaylen Brown sees Herro on 17% of their shots.
The matchup to watch: Philadelphia's ball security vs Milwaukee's hands.
Philadelphia turned it over on 12.7% of possessions last season (6th fewest).
Milwaukee forced turnovers on 12.3% (25th most), with 7.4 steals (26th) and 4.0 blocks (27th) a game.
Shot diets.
Philadelphia: 39.1% of shots from three (23rd), 33.8% at the rim (5th).
Milwaukee: 45.7% of shots from three (5th), 27.1% at the rim (26th).
Philadelphia's defense: 24th fewest rim attempts allowed, 10th lowest opponent three-point % (35.3%).
Milwaukee's defense: 9th fewest rim attempts allowed, 28th lowest opponent three-point % (37.5%).
Philadelphia's offense runs through Tyrese Maxey on the pick-and-roll ball handler: 7.5 a game last season, 11th most in the NBA.
0.92 points per play (top 34%), turnover on 10% of them.
When it goes to the roller: Philadelphia's roll men scored 1.00 (28th in the league). Joel Embiid alone: 1.05.
Milwaukee faced 15.3 of those a game (27th most) and ranked 19th defending them. Against the roll man: 27th.
In the sim: 1.21 Maxey-to-Embiid baskets a game (last season: 2.86).
With 6+ Maxey assists, Philadelphia wins 70.1%.
Milwaukee's offense lives on four plays: spot-up shots, the pick-and-roll ball handler, transition, the roll man. It ranked 2nd, 25th, 26th, 5th in points per play on them.
Philadelphia's defense ranked 11th, 3rd, 19th, 18th against those same four.
Tyler Herro in one split:
Isolation: 1.27 points per play (top 3%), 1.9 a game.
Spot-up shots: 1.18 points per play (top 19%), 6.0 a game.
Philadelphia's defense: 11th against spot-up shots, 14th against isolation.
Where Milwaukee can hit back:
- Philadelphia was 30th defending putbacks. Kel'el Ware ran 2.0 a game at 0.97 per play
- Philadelphia was 19th defending transition. Tyler Herro ran 4.9 a game at 1.05 per play
One check against real life:
Tyrese Maxey scored 27.2 points in his 4 games against Milwaukee last season, 54 of them on Nov 20. In our 5,000 sims: 23.7.
Things you'll notice in the sim:
- Philadelphia leads by as many as 9 in the first half; Philadelphia leads 64-58 at the break
- Philadelphia's 12-0 run in the 1st quarter is the biggest swing
- Embiid puts Philadelphia ahead for good with 7:31 left in the 2nd
- Maxey finds James 3 times
- James goes 5 of 7 off Philadelphia's bench
- Philadelphia leads by 16 at its high point in the 4th. Milwaukee gets within 3. Herro scores last; final 120-114 Philadelphia
How Milwaukee wins (1,824 of the 5,000):
- It makes threes: 17.8 a game in its wins, 15.1 in its losses. At 19 or more, it wins 60%
- It wins the turnover battle: then it wins 55%
- Herro scores 24 or more: then it wins 48%
Across all 5,000 sims:
Philadelphia wins 63.5%. The books (Draft Kings) have Philadelphia at 84%, ESPN's model at 87%.
Median score: Philadelphia 119, Milwaukee 114
Philadelphia covers -12.5 in 33%
Over 235.5 in 46%
Leans:
Biggest role disagreements (new to the team or the league, the books see a different role): Jaylen Brown assists line 4.5, sim 3.5; Jaime Jaquez Jr. rebounds line 5.5, sim 4.4; Jaime Jaquez Jr. pts+reb line 19.5, sim 16.7
Caution: tonight the sim sits 1.4 under the books' prop lines on average, so unders are inflated
- Tyrese Maxey under 6.5 assists (81%, sim avg 4.7)
- Myles Turner under 5.5 rebounds (72%, sim avg 4.4)
- VJ Edgecombe under 16.5 pts+ast (68%, sim avg 14.3)
- VJ Edgecombe under 19.5 pts+reb (68%, sim avg 17.2)
Fine print: one game isn't a prediction. The percentages are the signal.
Our own backtest (2024-26): the books beat this sim on sides and totals. Prop leans beat the base rate by 1-4 points out of sample, not enough to prove profit. Treat it as a lens, not a bet.
Most typical game, play by play (MIL score first)
Top 10 prop ideas
The sim's 10 strongest prop leans, logged Sat Oct 24, 9:17 AM and graded after the game. Players new to their team are left out. Not a proven edge: on 2024-26 games, picking each game's 10 strongest leans lost 4-7% at the books' prices, because the books already lean the same way. ESPN doesn't say which posted price is the over, so the price shown is the worse of the two. Prop ideas so far: 73-70 (51%), -14.4 units at the worse price.
| Player | Idea | Sim | Price | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyrese Maxey | under 6.5 assists | 81% | -140 | 4 ✓ |
| Myles Turner | under 5.5 rebounds | 72% | -146 | 5 ✓ |
| VJ Edgecombe | under 16.5 pts+ast | 68% | -127 | 19 ✗ |
| VJ Edgecombe | under 19.5 pts+reb | 68% | -119 | 30 ✗ |
| Tyrese Maxey | under 31.5 pts+ast | 68% | -123 | 30 ✓ |
| Kyle Kuzma | under 4.5 rebounds | 68% | -121 | 12 ✗ |
| Kyle Kuzma | over 0.5 threes | 68% | -234 | 0 ✗ |
| Joel Embiid | under 3.5 assists | 67% | -149 | 10 ✗ |
| VJ Edgecombe | under 6.5 rebounds | 66% | -147 | 13 ✗ |
| Joel Embiid | under 27.5 pts+ast | 65% | -122 | 38 ✗ |
All player props
Sorted by how far the sim sits from 50%. Players new to their team are tagged: the sim is least sure about their role.
| Player | Market | Line | Sim avg | Sim over | Lean | Sim + you |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LeBron Jamesnew team | pts+ast | 24.5 | 12.7 | 1% | under 99% | |
| LeBron Jamesnew team | pts+reb | 24.5 | 13.3 | 2% | under 98% | |
| LeBron Jamesnew team | assists | 6.5 | 3.1 | 3% | under 97% | |
| LeBron Jamesnew team | points | 17.5 | 9.6 | 6% | under 94% | |
| LeBron Jamesnew team | rebounds | 6.5 | 3.6 | 7% | under 93% | |
| LeBron Jamesnew team | threes | 1.5 | 0.7 | 16% | under 84% | |
| Tyrese Maxey | assists | 6.5 | 4.7 | 19% | under 81% | |
| Jaylen Brownnew team | assists | 4.5 | 3.5 | 27% | under 73% | |
| Jaime Jaquez Jr.new team | rebounds | 5.5 | 4.4 | 27% | under 73% | |
| Myles Turner | rebounds | 5.5 | 4.4 | 28% | under 72% | |
| Jaime Jaquez Jr.new team | pts+reb | 19.5 | 16.7 | 29% | under 71% | |
| Tyler Herronew team | pts+ast | 25.5 | 22.4 | 31% | under 69% | |
| Jaime Jaquez Jr.new team | pts+ast | 18.5 | 16.2 | 31% | under 69% | |
| Jaime Jaquez Jr.new team | points | 14.5 | 12.3 | 31% | under 69% | |
| VJ Edgecombe | pts+ast | 16.5 | 14.3 | 32% | under 68% | |
| VJ Edgecombe | pts+reb | 19.5 | 17.2 | 32% | under 68% | |
| Tyrese Maxey | pts+ast | 31.5 | 28.4 | 32% | under 68% | |
| Kyle Kuzma | rebounds | 4.5 | 3.8 | 32% | under 68% | |
| Kyle Kuzma | threes | 0.5 | 1.1 | 68% | over 68% | |
| Joel Embiid | assists | 3.5 | 2.9 | 33% | under 67% | |
| VJ Edgecombe | rebounds | 6.5 | 5.7 | 34% | under 66% | |
| Tyler Herronew team | assists | 4.5 | 3.9 | 35% | under 65% | |
| Joel Embiid | pts+ast | 27.5 | 25.1 | 35% | under 65% | |
| Joel Embiid | pts+reb | 32.5 | 30.1 | 35% | under 65% | |
| Tyler Herronew team | points | 20.5 | 18.5 | 36% | under 64% | |
| Tyler Herronew team | pts+reb | 24.5 | 22.5 | 36% | under 64% | |
| Joel Embiid | threes | 1.5 | 1.3 | 36% | under 64% | |
| Myles Turner | pts+reb | 15.5 | 14.0 | 37% | under 63% | |
| Tyrese Maxey | rebounds | 3.5 | 4.3 | 62% | over 62% | |
| Jaylen Brownnew team | pts+ast | 27.5 | 25.8 | 39% | under 61% | |
| VJ Edgecombe | points | 12.5 | 11.5 | 39% | under 61% | |
| Joel Embiid | rebounds | 8.5 | 7.9 | 39% | under 61% | |
| Joel Embiid | points | 23.5 | 22.2 | 40% | under 60% | |
| Kyle Kuzma | pts+reb | 15.5 | 14.5 | 40% | under 60% | |
| Ryan Rollins | threes | 1.5 | 2.0 | 60% | over 60% | |
| Ryan Rollins | pts+ast | 19.5 | 18.5 | 42% | under 58% | |
| VJ Edgecombe | threes | 1.5 | 1.4 | 42% | under 58% | |
| Jaime Jaquez Jr.new team | threes | 0.5 | 0.8 | 57% | over 57% | |
| Ryan Rollins | rebounds | 3.5 | 4.0 | 56% | over 56% | |
| Myles Turner | threes | 1.5 | 1.5 | 44% | under 56% | |
| Tyrese Maxey | points | 24.5 | 23.7 | 44% | under 56% | |
| Jaylen Brownnew team | pts+reb | 29.5 | 28.8 | 44% | under 56% | |
| Jaylen Brownnew team | threes | 1.5 | 1.8 | 56% | over 56% | |
| Ryan Rollins | assists | 4.5 | 4.4 | 44% | under 56% | |
| Tyler Herronew team | rebounds | 3.5 | 4.0 | 56% | over 56% | |
| VJ Edgecombe | assists | 2.5 | 2.9 | 55% | over 55% | |
| Jaime Jaquez Jr.new team | assists | 3.5 | 3.9 | 55% | over 55% | |
| Ryan Rollins | pts+reb | 18.5 | 18.1 | 45% | under 55% | |
| Ryan Rollins | points | 14.5 | 14.1 | 46% | under 54% | |
| Tyrese Maxey | pts+reb | 28.5 | 28.0 | 46% | under 54% | |
| Tyler Herronew team | threes | 2.5 | 2.5 | 46% | under 54% | |
| Jaylen Brownnew team | points | 22.5 | 22.3 | 47% | under 53% | |
| Myles Turner | points | 9.5 | 9.6 | 47% | under 53% | |
| Jaylen Brownnew team | rebounds | 6.5 | 6.5 | 48% | under 52% | |
| Kyle Kuzma | points | 10.5 | 10.7 | 49% | under 51% | |
| Tyrese Maxey | threes | 2.5 | 2.7 | 51% | over 51% |