New Orleans @ Denver
Tip-off 6:00 PM PT · Draft Kings lines · 5,000 sims · win chance for DEN
NBA backtest: the books beat this sim on sides and totals; props run slightly above base rates. Details
How the sim saw it
The sim has Denver winning 61.6% of 5,000 games, against 80% from the books. The median score is Denver 125, New Orleans 121. In the most typical game: Denver leads by as many as 15 in the first half; Denver leads 68-56 at the break. New Orleans's 8-0 run in the 2nd quarter is the biggest swing. J. Murray puts Denver ahead for good with 12:00 left in the 1st. J. Murray finds Jokić 4 times. Fears goes 6 of 11 off New Orleans's bench. Denver leads by 23 at its high point in the 4th. New Orleans gets within 5. H. Jones scores last; final 125-120 Denver.
New Orleans wins 1,920 of the 5,000. Its chances rise when it makes 13+ threes (it wins 56%), wins the turnover battle (47%) or gets 21+ from Williamson (46%). The matchup to watch is Denver's ball security against New Orleans's hands. Denver covers -11.5 in 33% and the game goes over 239.5 in 62%.
Full breakdown
Last time they met (Jan 13), Denver won in New Orleans, 122-116.
Tonight Denver is without Cameron Johnson, Spencer Jones and Julian Strawther.
Denver went 54-28 last season (5th best record in the NBA).
New Orleans went 26-56 last season (23rd best record in the NBA).
Denver won the season series 3-0.
Christian Braun missed 2 of the 3 meetings.
Bryce McGowens missed 2 of the 3 meetings.
Denver: gone: Tim Hardaway Jr. (now MIA), Bruce Brown (off the league rosters), Peyton Watson (now CLE); new: DeMar DeRozan (from SAC), Alpha Diallo (no NBA minutes last season), Marvin Bagley III (from WAS), Trevon Brazile (no NBA minutes last season), Ryan Nembhard (from DAL), Cam Whitmore (from WAS), Tyus Jones (from ORL), Bryce Hopkins (no NBA minutes last season).
New Orleans: new: Julian Reese (from WAS), Bennedict Mathurin (from IND), Trendon Watford (from PHI).
Who's in the sim (top five by projected minutes listed first):
DEN: J. Murray, Jokić, Braun, DeRozan, Gordon
Bench: Bagley, Brazile, Nembhard, Diallo, Whitmore, T. Jones (+3 under 8 min)
Out: Johnson, S. Jones, Strawther
Maybe: Diallo (50% to play, minutes scaled)
NOP: Murphy, Williamson, Bey, D. Murray, Reese
Bench: Mathurin, H. Jones, Fears, Queen, Poole, McGowens, Missi, Jordan (+2 under 8 min)
Who gets hunted: last season shooters hit +7.2 points vs their usual FG% against DeMar DeRozan and +3.5 against Trey Murphy III.
The stoppers on threes: Aaron Gordon held shooters 11.9 points under their usual 3P%, Christian Braun held shooters 4.4 points under their usual 3P%.
In the sim, Saddiq Bey sees DeRozan on 35% of their shots.
The matchup to watch: Denver's ball security vs New Orleans's hands.
Denver turned it over on 12.0% of possessions last season (3rd fewest).
New Orleans forced turnovers on 13.2% (19th most), with 8.9 steals (9th) and 5.2 blocks (9th) a game.
Shot diets.
Denver: 40.8% of shots from three (17th), 29.2% at the rim (19th).
New Orleans: 35.5% of shots from three (26th), 41.0% at the rim (1st).
Denver's defense: 6th fewest rim attempts allowed, 3rd lowest opponent three-point % (34.9%).
New Orleans's defense: 23rd fewest rim attempts allowed, 5th lowest opponent three-point % (35.0%).
Denver's offense runs through Jamal Murray on the pick-and-roll ball handler: 7.5 a game last season, 10th most in the NBA.
1.04 points per play (top 11%), turnover on 12% of them.
When it goes to the roller: Denver's roll men scored 1.24 (2nd in the league). Nikola Jokić alone: 1.25.
New Orleans faced 15.8 of those a game (24th most) and ranked 14th defending them. Against the roll man: 15th.
In the sim: 1.85 J. Murray-to-Jokić baskets a game (last season: 2.70).
With 7+ J. Murray assists, Denver wins 69.1%.
New Orleans's offense lives on four plays: spot-up shots, transition, the pick-and-roll ball handler, isolation. It ranked 22nd, 20th, 21st, 10th in points per play on them.
Denver's defense ranked 4th, 30th, 18th, 23rd against those same four.
Zion Williamson in one split:
Transition: 1.32 points per play (top 12%), 2.8 a game.
Isolation: 1.07 points per play (top 14%), 4.0 a game.
Denver's defense: 23rd against isolation, 30th against transition.
Where New Orleans can hit back:
- Denver was 30th defending transition. Jeremiah Fears ran 4.5 a game at 1.04 per play
- Denver was 24th defending handoffs. Trey Murphy III ran 1.9 a game at 0.93 per play
One check against real life:
Jamal Murray scored 22.7 points in his 3 games against New Orleans last season, 35 of them on Jan 13. In our 5,000 sims: 24.8.
Zion Williamson scored 12.3 points in his 3 games against Denver last season, 14 of them on Nov 19. In our 5,000 sims: 16.7.
Things you'll notice in the sim:
- Denver leads by as many as 15 in the first half; Denver leads 68-56 at the break
- New Orleans's 8-0 run in the 2nd quarter is the biggest swing
- J. Murray puts Denver ahead for good with 12:00 left in the 1st
- J. Murray finds Jokić 4 times
- Fears goes 6 of 11 off New Orleans's bench
- Denver leads by 23 at its high point in the 4th. New Orleans gets within 5. H. Jones scores last; final 125-120 Denver
How New Orleans wins (1,920 of the 5,000):
- It makes threes: 11.7 a game in its wins, 9.9 in its losses. At 13 or more, it wins 56%
- It wins the turnover battle: then it wins 47%
- Williamson scores 21 or more: then it wins 46%
Across all 5,000 sims:
Denver wins 61.6%. The books (Draft Kings) have Denver at 80%, ESPN's model at 78%.
Median score: Denver 125, New Orleans 121
Denver covers -11.5 in 33%
Over 239.5 in 62%
Leans:
Biggest role disagreements (new to the team or the league, the books see a different role): DeMar DeRozan pts+ast line 18.5, sim 20.6; DeMar DeRozan points line 15.5, sim 17.4; DeMar DeRozan assists line 3.5, sim 3.2
Caution: tonight the sim sits 1.3 under the books' prop lines on average, so unders are inflated
- Aaron Gordon under 20.5 pts+ast (90%, sim avg 13.6)
- Aaron Gordon under 23.5 pts+reb (90%, sim avg 16.3)
- Dejounte Murray under 5.5 rebounds (89%, sim avg 3.2)
- Aaron Gordon under 17.5 points (87%, sim avg 11.7)
Fine print: one game isn't a prediction. The percentages are the signal.
Our own backtest (2024-26): the books beat this sim on sides and totals. Prop leans beat the base rate by 1-4 points out of sample, not enough to prove profit. Treat it as a lens, not a bet.
Most typical game, play by play (NOP score first)
Top 10 prop ideas
The sim's 10 strongest prop leans, logged Sat Oct 24, 9:17 AM and graded after the game. Players new to their team are left out. Not a proven edge: on 2024-26 games, picking each game's 10 strongest leans lost 4-7% at the books' prices, because the books already lean the same way. ESPN doesn't say which posted price is the over, so the price shown is the worse of the two. Prop ideas so far: 73-70 (51%), -14.4 units at the worse price.
| Player | Idea | Sim | Price | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Gordon | under 20.5 pts+ast | 90% | -118 | 11 ✓ |
| Aaron Gordon | under 23.5 pts+reb | 90% | -121 | 12 ✓ |
| Dejounte Murray | under 5.5 rebounds | 89% | -138 | 6 ✗ |
| Aaron Gordon | under 17.5 points | 87% | -116 | 7 ✓ |
| Dejounte Murray | under 22.5 pts+reb | 86% | -126 | 28 ✗ |
| Nikola Jokić | under 10.5 assists | 86% | -123 | 10 ✓ |
| Dejounte Murray | under 23.5 pts+ast | 84% | -116 | 28 ✗ |
| Aaron Gordon | under 6.5 rebounds | 82% | -146 | 5 ✓ |
| Dejounte Murray | under 17.5 points | 80% | -114 | 22 ✗ |
| Christian Braun | under 1.5 threes | 76% | -138 | 0 ✓ |
All player props
Sorted by how far the sim sits from 50%. Players new to their team are tagged: the sim is least sure about their role.
| Player | Market | Line | Sim avg | Sim over | Lean | Sim + you |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Gordon | pts+ast | 20.5 | 13.6 | 10% | under 90% | |
| Aaron Gordon | pts+reb | 23.5 | 16.3 | 10% | under 90% | |
| Dejounte Murray | rebounds | 5.5 | 3.2 | 11% | under 89% | |
| Aaron Gordon | points | 17.5 | 11.7 | 13% | under 87% | |
| Dejounte Murray | pts+reb | 22.5 | 16.4 | 14% | under 86% | |
| Nikola Jokić | assists | 10.5 | 7.7 | 14% | under 86% | |
| Dejounte Murray | pts+ast | 23.5 | 18.0 | 16% | under 84% | |
| Aaron Gordon | rebounds | 6.5 | 4.6 | 18% | under 82% | |
| Dejounte Murray | points | 17.5 | 13.2 | 20% | under 80% | |
| Christian Braun | threes | 1.5 | 0.9 | 24% | under 76% | |
| Jeremiah Fears | pts+reb | 15.5 | 12.2 | 25% | under 75% | |
| Jamal Murray | assists | 6.5 | 5.2 | 27% | under 73% | |
| Zion Williamson | pts+reb | 23.5 | 20.3 | 28% | under 72% | |
| Jeremiah Fears | points | 12.5 | 10.0 | 28% | under 72% | |
| Christian Braun | points | 12.5 | 10.2 | 29% | under 71% | |
| Christian Braun | pts+ast | 14.5 | 12.1 | 30% | under 70% | |
| Aaron Gordon | threes | 1.5 | 1.1 | 30% | under 70% | |
| Zion Williamson | rebounds | 4.5 | 3.7 | 31% | under 69% | |
| Aaron Gordon | assists | 2.5 | 2.0 | 32% | under 68% | |
| Trey Murphy III | rebounds | 4.5 | 3.8 | 32% | under 68% | |
| Jeremiah Fears | pts+ast | 14.5 | 12.5 | 32% | under 68% | |
| Christian Braun | pts+reb | 16.5 | 14.7 | 34% | under 66% | |
| Nikola Jokić | pts+ast | 38.5 | 35.7 | 34% | under 66% | |
| Dejounte Murray | assists | 5.5 | 4.8 | 35% | under 65% | |
| Jeremiah Fears | rebounds | 2.5 | 2.2 | 36% | under 64% | |
| DeMar DeRozannew team | pts+ast | 18.5 | 20.6 | 62% | over 62% | |
| Nikola Jokić | rebounds | 12.5 | 11.7 | 39% | under 61% | |
| DeMar DeRozannew team | points | 15.5 | 17.4 | 61% | over 61% | |
| Zion Williamson | pts+ast | 20.5 | 19.2 | 39% | under 61% | |
| DeMar DeRozannew team | assists | 3.5 | 3.2 | 40% | under 60% | |
| DeMar DeRozannew team | pts+reb | 18.5 | 20.3 | 60% | over 60% | |
| Dejounte Murray | threes | 1.5 | 1.4 | 40% | under 60% | |
| Trey Murphy III | pts+reb | 20.5 | 19.3 | 41% | under 59% | |
| Jamal Murray | pts+ast | 31.5 | 30.1 | 41% | under 59% | |
| Trey Murphy III | threes | 2.5 | 2.4 | 42% | under 58% | |
| Zion Williamson | points | 17.5 | 16.7 | 42% | under 58% | |
| Jamal Murray | threes | 2.5 | 3.0 | 57% | over 57% | |
| Trey Murphy III | assists | 2.5 | 2.9 | 57% | over 57% | |
| Jeremiah Fears | assists | 2.5 | 2.4 | 44% | under 56% | |
| Nikola Jokić | pts+reb | 40.5 | 39.8 | 44% | under 56% | |
| Jamal Murray | rebounds | 4.5 | 4.4 | 45% | under 55% | |
| DeMar DeRozannew team | rebounds | 2.5 | 2.9 | 55% | over 55% | |
| Zion Williamson | assists | 2.5 | 2.5 | 46% | under 54% | |
| Christian Braun | rebounds | 4.5 | 4.5 | 46% | under 54% | |
| Trey Murphy III | points | 15.5 | 15.5 | 47% | under 53% | |
| Trey Murphy III | pts+ast | 18.5 | 18.4 | 47% | under 53% | |
| Jamal Murray | pts+reb | 28.5 | 29.2 | 52% | over 52% | |
| Nikola Jokić | points | 27.5 | 28.1 | 52% | over 52% | |
| Nikola Jokić | threes | 1.5 | 1.7 | 51% | over 51% | |
| Jamal Murray | points | 24.5 | 24.8 | 50% | over 50% |