Detroit @ Philadelphia
Tip-off 4:30 PM PT · Draft Kings lines · 5,000 sims · win chance for DET
NBA backtest: the books beat this sim on sides and totals; props run slightly above base rates. Details
How the sim saw it
The sim has Detroit winning 71.2% of 5,000 games, against 52% from the books. The median score is Philadelphia 109, Detroit 118. In the most typical game: Detroit leads by as many as 14 in the first half; Detroit leads 64-63 at the break. Detroit's 10-0 run in the 1st quarter is the biggest swing. Cunningham puts Detroit ahead for good with 7:41 left in the 4th. Detroit leads by 9 at its high point in the 4th. Philadelphia pulls even late. Cunningham scores last; final 118-109 Detroit.
Philadelphia wins 1,442 of the 5,000. Its chances rise when it makes 14+ threes (it wins 49%), wins the turnover battle (41%) or gets 29+ from Embiid (40%). The matchup to watch is Philadelphia's ball security against Detroit's hands. Detroit covers -1.5 in 69% and the game goes over 227.5 in 50%.
Full breakdown
Last time they met (Apr 4), Detroit won in Philadelphia, 116-93.
Tonight Philadelphia is without Dominick Barlow and LeBron James.
Tonight Detroit is without Jalen Duren.
Philadelphia went 45-37 last season (13th best record in the NBA).
Detroit went 60-22 last season (3rd best record in the NBA).
Detroit won the season series 4-0.
Cade Cunningham missed 2 of the 4 meetings.
Ausar Thompson missed 2 of the 4 meetings.
Philadelphia: gone: Quentin Grimes (now LAL), Kelly Oubre Jr. (now IND), Andre Drummond (now NYK); new: Jaylen Brown (from BOS), Anfernee Simons (from BOS), Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (from MEM), Dean Wade (from CLE), Caleb Love (from POR), Rayan Rupert (from POR), Labaron Philon Jr. (no NBA minutes last season).
Detroit: gone: Tobias Harris (now SAS); new: John Collins (from LAC), Taurean Prince (from MIL), Elijah Harkless (from UTA), Kevin Huerter (from CHI), Isaiah Joe (from OKC), Ebuka Okorie (rookie, #17 pick), Ugonna Onyenso (rookie, #53 pick).
Who's in the sim (top five by projected minutes listed first):
PHI: Maxey, Brown, Edgecombe, Embiid, Simons
Bench: Caldwell-Pope, Wade, Love, Rupert, Bona, Edwards (+2 under 8 min)
Out: Barlow, Fall, Hukporti, James
DET: Cunningham, Robinson, Collins, Prince, Huerter
Bench: Joe, Jenkins, Harkless, Holland, Thompson, Green, Reed, Okorie (+2 under 8 min)
Out: Duren
Maybe: Thompson (50% to play, minutes scaled)
No NBA history: Okorie (#17 pick, 9 min from past rookies), Onyenso (#53 pick, 4 min from past rookies)
Who gets hunted: last season shooters hit -0.7 points vs their usual FG% against Tyrese Maxey and -1.0 against VJ Edgecombe.
The stoppers on threes: Cade Cunningham held shooters 4.8 points under their usual 3P%, VJ Edgecombe held shooters 2.7 points under their usual 3P%.
In the sim, Daniss Jenkins sees Maxey on 21% of their shots.
The matchup to watch: Philadelphia's ball security vs Detroit's hands.
Philadelphia turned it over on 12.7% of possessions last season (6th fewest).
Detroit forced turnovers on 15.7% (most), with 10.4 steals (1st) and 6.4 blocks (1st) a game.
Shot diets.
Philadelphia: 39.1% of shots from three (23rd), 33.8% at the rim (5th).
Detroit: 34.5% of shots from three (29th), 37.7% at the rim (2nd).
Philadelphia's defense: 24th fewest rim attempts allowed, 10th lowest opponent three-point % (35.3%).
Detroit's defense: 7th fewest rim attempts allowed, lowest opponent three-point % (34.5%).
Detroit's offense runs through Cade Cunningham on the pick-and-roll ball handler: 8.9 a game last season, 3rd most in the NBA.
0.93 points per play (top 30%), turnover on 16% of them.
When it goes to the roller: Detroit's roll men scored 1.21 (3rd in the league). Paul Reed alone: 1.38.
Philadelphia faced 18.5 of those a game (10th most) and ranked 3rd defending them. Against the roll man: 18th.
In the sim: 1.66 Cunningham-to-Collins baskets a game.
With 12+ Cunningham assists, Detroit wins 78.9%.
Philadelphia's offense lives on four plays: spot-up shots, transition, the pick-and-roll ball handler, isolation. It ranked 17th, 9th, 11th, 15th in points per play on them.
Detroit's defense ranked 1st, 2nd, 1st, 5th against those same four.
Joel Embiid in one split:
Cuts: 1.28 points per play (bottom 44%), 1.8 a game.
Post-ups: 1.14 points per play (top 21%), 5.5 a game.
Detroit's defense: 1st against post-ups, 19th against cuts.
Where Philadelphia can hit back:
- Detroit was 23rd defending off-screen shots. Jaylen Brown ran 2.0 a game at 1.01 per play
- Detroit was 19th defending cuts. Joel Embiid ran 1.8 a game at 1.28 per play
One check against real life:
Cade Cunningham scored 17.0 points in his 2 games against Philadelphia last season, 26 of them on Nov 9. In our 5,000 sims: 30.2.
Things you'll notice in the sim:
- Detroit leads by as many as 14 in the first half; Detroit leads 64-63 at the break
- Detroit's 10-0 run in the 1st quarter is the biggest swing
- Cunningham puts Detroit ahead for good with 7:41 left in the 4th
- Detroit leads by 9 at its high point in the 4th. Philadelphia pulls even late. Cunningham scores last; final 118-109 Detroit
How Philadelphia wins (1,442 of the 5,000):
- It makes threes: 12.7 a game in its wins, 10.7 in its losses. At 14 or more, it wins 49%
- It wins the turnover battle: then it wins 41%
- Embiid scores 29 or more: then it wins 40%
Across all 5,000 sims:
Detroit wins 71.2%. The books (Draft Kings) have Detroit at 52%, ESPN's model at 36%.
Median score: Philadelphia 109, Detroit 118
Detroit covers -1.5 in 69%
Over 227.5 in 50%
Leans:
Biggest role disagreements (new to the team or the league, the books see a different role): Jaylen Brown pts+ast line 30.5, sim 26.5; Jaylen Brown assists line 4.5, sim 3.7; Jaylen Brown points line 25.5, sim 22.8
Caution: tonight the sim sits 2.1 under the books' prop lines on average, so unders are inflated
- Paul Reed under 24.5 pts+reb (100%, sim avg 10.4)
- Paul Reed under 9.5 rebounds (99%, sim avg 4.2)
- Paul Reed under 16.5 pts+ast (99%, sim avg 7.1)
- Paul Reed under 14.5 points (98%, sim avg 6.2)
Fine print: one game isn't a prediction. The percentages are the signal.
Our own backtest (2024-26): the books beat this sim on sides and totals. Prop leans beat the base rate by 1-4 points out of sample, not enough to prove profit. Treat it as a lens, not a bet.
Most typical game, play by play (DET score first)
Top 10 prop ideas
The sim's 10 strongest prop leans, logged Sun Oct 25, 8:06 AM and graded after the game. Players new to their team are left out. Not a proven edge: on 2024-26 games, picking each game's 10 strongest leans lost 4-7% at the books' prices, because the books already lean the same way. ESPN doesn't say which posted price is the over, so the price shown is the worse of the two. Prop ideas so far: 73-70 (51%), -14.4 units at the worse price.
| Player | Idea | Sim | Price | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paul Reed | under 24.5 pts+reb | 100% | -125 | 16 ✓ |
| Ausar Thompson | under 15.5 pts+ast | 99% | -116 | void |
| Ausar Thompson | under 18.5 pts+reb | 99% | -116 | void |
| Paul Reed | under 9.5 rebounds | 99% | -128 | 8 ✓ |
| Paul Reed | under 16.5 pts+ast | 99% | -123 | 10 ✓ |
| Paul Reed | under 14.5 points | 98% | -117 | 8 ✓ |
| Ausar Thompson | under 11.5 points | 97% | -128 | void |
| Ausar Thompson | under 4.5 assists | 97% | -138 | void |
| Ausar Thompson | under 7.5 rebounds | 96% | -133 | void |
| Paul Reed | under 2.5 assists | 93% | -155 | 2 ✓ |
All player props
Sorted by how far the sim sits from 50%. Players new to their team are tagged: the sim is least sure about their role.
| Player | Market | Line | Sim avg | Sim over | Lean | Sim + you |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paul Reed | pts+reb | 24.5 | 10.4 | 0% | under 100% | |
| Ausar Thompson | pts+ast | 15.5 | 6.5 | 1% | under 99% | |
| Ausar Thompson | pts+reb | 18.5 | 8.5 | 1% | under 99% | |
| Paul Reed | rebounds | 9.5 | 4.2 | 1% | under 99% | |
| Paul Reed | pts+ast | 16.5 | 7.1 | 1% | under 99% | |
| Paul Reed | points | 14.5 | 6.2 | 2% | under 98% | |
| Ausar Thompson | points | 11.5 | 4.8 | 3% | under 97% | |
| Ausar Thompson | assists | 4.5 | 1.7 | 3% | under 97% | |
| Ausar Thompson | rebounds | 7.5 | 3.7 | 4% | under 96% | |
| Paul Reed | assists | 2.5 | 0.9 | 7% | under 93% | |
| Tyrese Maxey | pts+ast | 32.5 | 27.5 | 24% | under 76% | |
| VJ Edgecombe | points | 14.5 | 11.2 | 25% | under 75% | |
| VJ Edgecombe | pts+ast | 17.5 | 14.1 | 25% | under 75% | |
| Jaylen Brownnew team | pts+ast | 30.5 | 26.5 | 26% | under 74% | |
| Cade Cunningham | pts+reb | 31.5 | 36.8 | 73% | over 73% | |
| VJ Edgecombe | pts+reb | 20.5 | 17.2 | 27% | under 73% | |
| Cade Cunningham | points | 25.5 | 30.2 | 72% | over 72% | |
| Tyrese Maxey | points | 26.5 | 22.7 | 28% | under 72% | |
| Cade Cunningham | pts+ast | 35.5 | 39.9 | 70% | over 70% | |
| Jaylen Brownnew team | assists | 4.5 | 3.7 | 30% | under 70% | |
| Tyrese Maxey | pts+reb | 30.5 | 27.0 | 30% | under 70% | |
| Jaylen Brownnew team | points | 25.5 | 22.8 | 32% | under 68% | |
| Jaylen Brownnew team | pts+reb | 32.5 | 29.7 | 33% | under 67% | |
| VJ Edgecombe | assists | 3.5 | 2.9 | 35% | under 65% | |
| Tyrese Maxey | assists | 5.5 | 4.8 | 35% | under 65% | |
| Cade Cunningham | rebounds | 5.5 | 6.6 | 65% | over 65% | |
| John Collinsnew team | threes | 1.5 | 1.3 | 36% | under 64% | |
| John Collinsnew team | points | 15.5 | 13.9 | 37% | under 63% | |
| Tyrese Maxey | rebounds | 3.5 | 4.3 | 63% | over 63% | |
| Duncan Robinson | points | 12.5 | 11.6 | 41% | under 59% | |
| VJ Edgecombe | threes | 1.5 | 1.4 | 41% | under 59% | |
| Duncan Robinson | pts+reb | 15.5 | 14.7 | 42% | under 58% | |
| Duncan Robinson | rebounds | 2.5 | 3.0 | 58% | over 58% | |
| John Collinsnew team | rebounds | 6.5 | 7.2 | 57% | over 57% | |
| VJ Edgecombe | rebounds | 5.5 | 6.0 | 56% | over 56% | |
| John Collinsnew team | pts+reb | 21.5 | 21.1 | 44% | under 56% | |
| Tyrese Maxey | threes | 2.5 | 2.4 | 45% | under 55% | |
| Jaylen Brownnew team | rebounds | 6.5 | 6.9 | 54% | over 54% | |
| Jaylen Brownnew team | threes | 1.5 | 1.7 | 52% | over 52% | |
| Duncan Robinson | threes | 2.5 | 2.7 | 51% | over 51% | |
| Cade Cunningham | threes | 2.5 | 2.7 | 51% | over 51% | |
| Cade Cunningham | assists | 9.5 | 9.7 | 50% | under 50% |