Memphis @ Sacramento
Tip-off 6:00 PM PT · Draft Kings lines · 5,000 sims · win chance for MEM
NBA backtest: the books beat this sim on sides and totals; props run slightly above base rates. Details
How the sim saw it
The sim has Memphis winning 56.4% of 5,000 games, against 60% from the books. The median score is Sacramento 122, Memphis 124. In the most typical game: Sacramento leads by as many as 11 in the first half; Sacramento leads 59-58 at the break. Sacramento's 9-0 run in the 1st quarter is the biggest swing. Prosper puts Memphis ahead for good with 0:57 left in the 4th. Boozer finds Spencer 3 times. Achiuwa goes 6 of 10 off Sacramento's bench. Memphis leads by 7 at its high point in the 4th. Sacramento pulls even late. Coward scores last; final 124-121 Memphis.
Sacramento wins 2,178 of the 5,000. Its chances rise when it makes 17+ threes (it wins 64%), wins the turnover battle (61%) or gets 30+ from Acuff (53%). The matchup to watch is Sacramento's ball security against Memphis's hands. Memphis covers -3.5 in 49% and the game goes over 234.5 in 70%.
Full breakdown
Last time they met (Feb 23), Sacramento won in Memphis, 123-114.
Tonight Sacramento is without Dylan Cardwell and Maxime Raynaud.
Tonight Memphis is without Zach Edey.
Sacramento went 22-60 last season (26th best record in the NBA).
Memphis went 25-57 last season (25th best record in the NBA).
Memphis won the season series 3-1.
Javon Small missed 2 of the 4 meetings.
Sacramento: gone: DeMar DeRozan (now DEN), Russell Westbrook (off the league rosters), Dennis Schröder (now CHA); new: Darius Acuff Jr. (no NBA minutes last season), Leaky Black (from WAS), De'Andre Hunter (from CLE), Emanuel Sharp (no NBA minutes last season), Jonathan Mogbo (from TOR), Alex Karaban (no NBA minutes last season), Sean Pedulla (from LAC).
Memphis: gone: Jaren Jackson Jr. (now UTA), Santi Aldama (now DAL), Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (now PHI), Jock Landale (now ATL); new: Cameron Boozer (no NBA minutes last season), Jerami Grant (from POR), Kris Murray (from POR), Isaiah Stewart (from DET), Quinten Post (from GSW).
Who's in the sim (top five by projected minutes listed first):
SAC: Acuff, LaVine, Sabonis, Hunter, Black
Bench: Achiuwa, Plowden, Clifford, K. Murray, Monk, Sharp (+3 under 8 min)
Out: Cardwell, Raynaud, Simmons
Maybe: K. Murray (50% to play, minutes scaled)
MEM: Boozer, Grant, Wells, Jerome, Mashack
Bench: Spencer, K. Murray, Stewart, Jackson, Small, Pippen, Coward, Hendricks, Prosper, Post
Out: Edey
Maybe: Coward (50% to play, minutes scaled)
Who gets hunted: last season shooters hit +4.3 points vs their usual FG% against Zach LaVine and +2.6 against De'Andre Hunter.
The stoppers on threes: Jerami Grant held shooters 1.2 points under their usual 3P%, Precious Achiuwa held shooters 1.0 points under their usual 3P%.
In the sim, Jaylen Wells sees LaVine on 26% of their shots.
The matchup to watch: Sacramento's ball security vs Memphis's hands.
Sacramento turned it over on 13.5% of possessions last season (15th fewest).
Memphis forced turnovers on 14.4% (8th most), with 8.8 steals (10th) and 4.8 blocks (16th) a game.
Shot diets.
Sacramento: 33.9% of shots from three (30th), 25.6% at the rim (28th).
Memphis: 43.6% of shots from three (10th), 27.1% at the rim (27th).
Sacramento's defense: 3rd fewest rim attempts allowed, 29th lowest opponent three-point % (37.9%).
Memphis's defense: 21st fewest rim attempts allowed, 21st lowest opponent three-point % (36.4%).
Memphis's offense runs through Cam Spencer on the pick-and-roll ball handler: 3.6 a game last season, 66th most in the NBA.
1.06 points per play (top 7%), turnover on 12% of them.
When it goes to the roller: Memphis's roll men scored 1.12 (13th in the league). Isaiah Stewart alone: 1.04.
Sacramento faced 16.7 of those a game (21st most) and ranked 29th defending them. Against the roll man: 27th.
In the sim: 0.65 Spencer-to-Boozer baskets a game.
With 5+ Spencer assists, Memphis wins 63.0%.
Sacramento's offense lives on four plays: spot-up shots, the pick-and-roll ball handler, transition, isolation. It ranked 28th, 30th, 24th, 18th in points per play on them.
Memphis's defense ranked 19th, 25th, 15th, 27th against those same four.
Where Sacramento can hit back:
- Memphis was 30th defending cuts. Precious Achiuwa ran 1.3 a game at 1.18 per play
- Memphis was 27th defending isolation. Zach LaVine ran 1.5 a game at 0.84 per play
One check against real life:
Cam Spencer scored 12.5 points in his 4 games against Sacramento last season, 20 of them on Feb 4. In our 5,000 sims: 6.7.
Things you'll notice in the sim:
- Sacramento leads by as many as 11 in the first half; Sacramento leads 59-58 at the break
- Sacramento's 9-0 run in the 1st quarter is the biggest swing
- Prosper puts Memphis ahead for good with 0:57 left in the 4th
- Boozer finds Spencer 3 times
- Achiuwa goes 6 of 10 off Sacramento's bench
- Memphis leads by 7 at its high point in the 4th. Sacramento pulls even late. Coward scores last; final 124-121 Memphis
How Sacramento wins (2,178 of the 5,000):
- It makes threes: 15.1 a game in its wins, 13.0 in its losses. At 17 or more, it wins 64%
- It wins the turnover battle: then it wins 61%
- Acuff scores 30 or more: then it wins 53%
Across all 5,000 sims:
Memphis wins 56.4%. The books (Draft Kings) have Memphis at 60%, ESPN's model at 61%.
Median score: Sacramento 122, Memphis 124
Memphis covers -3.5 in 49%
Over 234.5 in 70%
Leans:
Biggest role disagreements (new to the team or the league, the books see a different role): Isaiah Stewart rebounds line 5.5, sim 3.0; Darius Acuff Jr. pts+reb line 23.5, sim 29.4; Darius Acuff Jr. rebounds line 3.5, sim 4.9
Caution: tonight the sim sits 1.7 under the books' prop lines on average, so unders are inflated
- Ty Jerome under 29.5 pts+ast (96%, sim avg 18.5)
- Ty Jerome under 26.5 pts+reb (94%, sim avg 16.8)
- Ty Jerome under 23.5 points (93%, sim avg 14.6)
- Ty Jerome under 6.5 assists (91%, sim avg 3.9)
Fine print: one game isn't a prediction. The percentages are the signal.
Our own backtest (2024-26): the books beat this sim on sides and totals. Prop leans beat the base rate by 1-4 points out of sample, not enough to prove profit. Treat it as a lens, not a bet.
Most typical game, play by play (MEM score first)
Top 10 prop ideas
The sim's 10 strongest prop leans, logged Sun Oct 25, 8:06 AM and graded after the game. Players new to their team are left out. Not a proven edge: on 2024-26 games, picking each game's 10 strongest leans lost 4-7% at the books' prices, because the books already lean the same way. ESPN doesn't say which posted price is the over, so the price shown is the worse of the two. Prop ideas so far: 73-70 (51%), -14.4 units at the worse price.
| Player | Idea | Sim | Price | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keegan Murray | under 17.5 pts+reb | 97% | -127 | void |
| Ty Jerome | under 29.5 pts+ast | 96% | -119 | 37 ✗ |
| Cedric Coward | under 18.5 pts+reb | 95% | -115 | 26 ✗ |
| Cedric Coward | under 3.5 assists | 95% | -155 | 2 ✓ |
| Cedric Coward | under 16.5 pts+ast | 94% | -115 | 17 ✗ |
| Ty Jerome | under 26.5 pts+reb | 94% | -121 | 35 ✗ |
| Cedric Coward | under 5.5 rebounds | 93% | -142 | 11 ✗ |
| Ty Jerome | under 23.5 points | 93% | -117 | 31 ✗ |
| Keegan Murray | under 5.5 rebounds | 92% | -148 | void |
| Cedric Coward | under 13.5 points | 91% | -127 | 15 ✗ |
All player props
Sorted by how far the sim sits from 50%. Players new to their team are tagged: the sim is least sure about their role.
| Player | Market | Line | Sim avg | Sim over | Lean | Sim + you |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keegan Murray | pts+reb | 17.5 | 9.2 | 3% | under 97% | |
| Ty Jerome | pts+ast | 29.5 | 18.5 | 4% | under 96% | |
| Cedric Coward | pts+reb | 18.5 | 10.4 | 5% | under 95% | |
| Cedric Coward | assists | 3.5 | 1.4 | 5% | under 95% | |
| Cedric Coward | pts+ast | 16.5 | 9.0 | 6% | under 94% | |
| Ty Jerome | pts+reb | 26.5 | 16.8 | 6% | under 94% | |
| Cedric Coward | rebounds | 5.5 | 2.8 | 7% | under 93% | |
| Ty Jerome | points | 23.5 | 14.6 | 7% | under 93% | |
| Keegan Murray | rebounds | 5.5 | 3.0 | 8% | under 92% | |
| Isaiah Stewartnew team | rebounds | 5.5 | 3.0 | 8% | under 92% | |
| Cedric Coward | points | 13.5 | 7.6 | 9% | under 91% | |
| Ty Jerome | assists | 6.5 | 3.9 | 9% | under 91% | |
| Keegan Murray | points | 11.5 | 6.2 | 9% | under 91% | |
| Ty Jerome | rebounds | 3.5 | 2.2 | 18% | under 82% | |
| Domantas Sabonis | rebounds | 14.5 | 11.4 | 18% | under 82% | |
| Domantas Sabonis | pts+reb | 32.5 | 27.0 | 20% | under 80% | |
| Darius Acuff Jr.new team | pts+reb | 23.5 | 29.4 | 78% | over 78% | |
| Keegan Murray | threes | 1.5 | 0.9 | 23% | under 77% | |
| Cedric Coward | threes | 1.5 | 0.9 | 24% | under 76% | |
| Darius Acuff Jr.new team | rebounds | 3.5 | 4.9 | 73% | over 73% | |
| Darius Acuff Jr.new team | pts+ast | 24.5 | 29.0 | 72% | over 72% | |
| Domantas Sabonis | pts+ast | 25.5 | 22.2 | 28% | under 72% | |
| Domantas Sabonis | points | 18.5 | 15.6 | 29% | under 71% | |
| Jaylen Wells | pts+reb | 14.5 | 11.9 | 29% | under 71% | |
| Darius Acuff Jr.new team | points | 20.5 | 24.5 | 70% | over 70% | |
| Zach LaVine | assists | 2.5 | 3.6 | 70% | over 70% | |
| Ty Jerome | threes | 2.5 | 1.9 | 31% | under 69% | |
| Jaylen Wells | points | 11.5 | 9.6 | 32% | under 68% | |
| Cameron Boozernew team | rebounds | 8.5 | 7.4 | 33% | under 67% | |
| Jaylen Wells | pts+ast | 12.5 | 10.8 | 34% | under 66% | |
| Jerami Grantnew team | points | 11.5 | 14.1 | 65% | over 65% | |
| Cameron Boozernew team | pts+reb | 26.5 | 24.2 | 35% | under 65% | |
| Jaylen Wells | assists | 1.5 | 1.2 | 35% | under 65% | |
| Cameron Boozernew team | threes | 1.5 | 2.1 | 63% | over 63% | |
| Cameron Boozernew team | pts+ast | 22.5 | 21.1 | 40% | under 60% | |
| Zach LaVine | pts+reb | 24.5 | 23.2 | 40% | under 60% | |
| De'Andre Hunternew team | rebounds | 3.5 | 3.2 | 41% | under 59% | |
| Zach LaVine | rebounds | 3.5 | 3.3 | 42% | under 58% | |
| Jerami Grantnew team | threes | 1.5 | 2.0 | 58% | over 58% | |
| Jaylen Wells | rebounds | 2.5 | 2.4 | 42% | under 58% | |
| Cameron Boozernew team | points | 17.5 | 16.8 | 43% | under 57% | |
| De'Andre Hunternew team | points | 10.5 | 11.7 | 56% | over 56% | |
| Zach LaVine | points | 20.5 | 19.9 | 44% | under 56% | |
| Cameron Boozernew team | assists | 4.5 | 4.4 | 45% | under 55% | |
| Jaylen Wells | threes | 1.5 | 1.5 | 45% | under 55% | |
| Darius Acuff Jr.new team | threes | 2.5 | 2.5 | 46% | under 54% | |
| Zach LaVine | pts+ast | 23.5 | 23.5 | 47% | under 53% | |
| Darius Acuff Jr.new team | assists | 4.5 | 4.5 | 47% | under 53% | |
| Zach LaVine | threes | 2.5 | 2.7 | 52% | over 52% | |
| De'Andre Hunternew team | threes | 1.5 | 1.6 | 49% | under 51% | |
| De'Andre Hunternew team | pts+reb | 14.5 | 15.0 | 51% | over 51% | |
| Domantas Sabonis | assists | 6.5 | 6.7 | 50% | over 50% |