DEN @ ARI

Last time they met (2026 week 7), the Broncos won 30-16 in Arizona.

The Cardinals are 2-5 this season.

The Broncos are 5-2 this season.

Out tonight, starters only: Andrew Wingard, Walter Nolen, Talanoa Hufanga, Jonah Elliss.

Who's in the sim:

ARI: QB Jacoby Brissett

Targets: McBride 31%, Wilson 23%, Bourne 12%, Higgins 8%

Carries: Allgeier 14, Knight 8

DEN: QB Bo Nix

Targets: Sutton 18%, Waddle 15%, Engram 14%, Franklin 11%

Carries: Dobbins 16, Harvey 8

Flagged: Kendrick Bourne (new to the team, role scaled to 90%); Tyler Allgeier (new to the team, role scaled to 90%); Devin Duvernay (new to the team, role scaled to 90%); Jaylen Waddle (new to the team, role scaled to 90%)

Who gets hunted: Jacoby Brissett.

The Cardinals line has given up a sack on 5.0% of dropbacks (23rd most). The Broncos get home on 7.1% (8th most).

Down the field, the Cardinals allow 35.7% completions on throws of 20+ air yards (16th most in the league).

The matchup: how each team moves the ball.

The Cardinals: run-leaning on early downs (16th in pass rate over expected), 5.2 yards per dropback (27th), 3.6 per carry (26th). The Broncos defense: 3rd against the pass, 27th against the run.

The Broncos: run-leaning on early downs (21st in pass rate over expected), 5.6 yards per dropback (25th), 3.7 per carry (24th). The Cardinals defense: 32nd against the pass, 23rd against the run.

The Broncos engine: screens. 9.6% of their throws (12th most), 4.8 yards per attempt (17th).

The Cardinals rank 30th defending screens (6.8 yards per attempt allowed).

Courtland Sutton in one split:

Straight dropbacks: 5.1 yards per target on 30 targets (bottom 5% of receivers).

The Cardinals rank 32nd against straight dropbacks.

Where the Cardinals hit back:

• The Broncos are 6th worst defending the run (4.5 yards per carry). Tyler Allgeier gets the carries.
• The Broncos are 15th worst defending screens (5.4 yards per attempt). Michael Wilson sees the most of those targets.

One check against real life:

Bo Nix threw for 222 yards in the last meeting. In our 5,000 sims: 236.

Courtland Sutton caught 3 for 45. The sims: 3.6 for 45.

Jacoby Brissett threw for 272 yards in the last meeting. In our 5,000 sims: 226.

Trey McBride caught 10 for 111. The sims: 7.6 for 68.

Things you'll notice in the sim:

• At the half: Cardinals 0, Broncos 14
• Biggest leads: Cardinals by 0, Broncos by 14
• Q3: Jacoby Brissett to Trey McBride, 19 yards for the longest score of the day
• Turnovers: Cardinals 1
• 0 lead changes. Final: Broncos 24-17

How the Cardinals win (1,725 of the 5,000):

• Jacoby Brissett throws for 278+: then they win 52%
• No interceptions: 43%, vs 28% with one or more
• 134+ rushing yards: 64%

Across all 5,000 sims:

The Broncos win 65.1%. The books (Draft Kings) have them at 67%.

Median score: Cardinals 17, Broncos 23

The Broncos cover -4.5 in 52%

Over 43.5 in 43%

Typical lines:

• Bo Nix: 232 passing yards, 18 rushing yards
• Jacoby Brissett: 224 passing yards
• Courtland Sutton: 3.6 catches for 40 yards
• Trey McBride: 7.6 catches for 63 yards

Fine print: one game isn't a prediction. The percentages are the signal.

Our own backtest (2024-26): out of sample the books beat this sim on winners (log-loss 0.653 vs 0.625), and no spread or total rule made money. Treat it as a lens, not a bet.