IND @ MIN
Kickoff 10:00 AM PT · Draft Kings lines · 5,000 sims · win chance for MIN
NFL backtest: the books beat this sim on every period. Read it as context, not a bet. Details
Out: CJ Allen, Sauce Gardner, Tyler Warren, Anthony Gould, Alec Pierce, Jordan Mason, Donovan Jackson, Josh Oliver
How the sim saw it
The sim has the Vikings winning 80.2% of 5,000 games, against 71% from the books. The median score is Vikings 27, Colts 15. In the most typical game: At the half: Vikings 14, Colts 0. Biggest leads: Vikings by 28, Colts by 0. Q1: Aaron Jones runs for 8 for the longest score of the day. Turnovers: Colts 2, Vikings 1. 0 lead changes. Final: Vikings 28-14.
The Colts win 977 of the 5,000. Their chances rise when Daniel Jones throws for 247+ (they win 34%), with no interceptions (28%) or when they run for 128+ (47%). The Vikings cover -6.5 in 67% and the game goes over 41.5 in 54%. Typical lines: Kyler Murray: 236 passing yards, 28 rushing yards; Daniel Jones: 191 passing yards; Justin Jefferson: 5.4 catches for 64 yards; Keenan Allen: 5.0 catches for 44 yards.
Full breakdown
Last time they met (2026 week 7), the Vikings won 16-10 in Minnesota.
The Vikings are 6-0 this season.
The Colts are 2-5 this season.
Out tonight, starters only: Sauce Gardner, Tyler Warren, Jordan Mason, Donovan Jackson, Josh Oliver.
Who's in the sim:
MIN: QB Kyler Murray
Targets: Jefferson 26%, Addison 20%, Hockenson 18%, Jennings 15%
Carries: Jones 27, Murray 3
IND: QB Daniel Jones
Targets: Allen 27%, Downs 24%, Taylor 13%, Alie-Cox 8%
Carries: Taylor 18, Jones 2
Flagged: Jauan Jennings (new to the team, role scaled to 90%); Kyler Murray (new to the team, role scaled to 90%); Keenan Allen (new to the team, role scaled to 90%); Pharaoh Brown (new to the team, role scaled to 90%)
Who gets hunted: Daniel Jones.
The Colts line has given up a sack on 7.1% of dropbacks (10th most). The Vikings get home on 10.2% (1st most).
Down the field, the Colts allow 25.8% completions on throws of 20+ air yards (27th most in the league).
The matchup: how each team moves the ball.
The Vikings: run-leaning on early downs (27th in pass rate over expected), 5.6 yards per dropback (24th), 3.8 per carry (19th). The Colts defense: 27th against the pass, 28th against the run.
The Colts: run-leaning on early downs (24th in pass rate over expected), 4.9 yards per dropback (31st), 4.1 per carry (13th). The Vikings defense: 2nd against the pass, 16th against the run.
The Vikings engine: screens. 12.3% of their throws (5th most), 5.0 yards per attempt (14th).
The Colts rank 14th defending screens (4.5 yards per attempt allowed).
Justin Jefferson in one split:
Play-action: 12.6 yards per target on 8 targets (top 33% of receivers).
The Colts rank 28th against play-action.
Where the Colts hit back:
- The Vikings are 1st worst defending screens (11.2 yards per attempt). Jonathan Taylor sees the most of those targets.
- The Vikings are 6th worst defending play-action (9.2 yards per attempt). Jonathan Taylor sees the most of those targets.
One check against real life:
Kyler Murray threw for 150 yards in the last meeting. In our 5,000 sims: 240.
Justin Jefferson caught 4 for 44. The sims: 5.4 for 70.
Daniel Jones threw for 108 yards in the last meeting. In our 5,000 sims: 196.
Keenan Allen caught 3 for 31. The sims: 5.0 for 49.
Things you'll notice in the sim:
- At the half: Vikings 14, Colts 0
- Biggest leads: Vikings by 28, Colts by 0
- Q1: Aaron Jones runs for 8 for the longest score of the day
- Turnovers: Colts 2, Vikings 1
- 0 lead changes. Final: Vikings 28-14
How the Colts win (977 of the 5,000):
- Daniel Jones throws for 247+: then they win 34%
- No interceptions: 28%, vs 14% with one or more
- 128+ rushing yards: 47%
Across all 5,000 sims:
The Vikings win 80.2%. The books (Draft Kings) have them at 71%.
Median score: Vikings 27, Colts 15
The Vikings cover -6.5 in 67%
Over 41.5 in 54%
Typical lines:
- Kyler Murray: 236 passing yards, 28 rushing yards
- Daniel Jones: 191 passing yards
- Justin Jefferson: 5.4 catches for 64 yards
- Keenan Allen: 5.0 catches for 44 yards
Fine print: one game isn't a prediction. The percentages are the signal.
Our own backtest (2024-26): out of sample the books beat this sim on winners (log-loss 0.653 vs 0.625), and no spread or total rule made money. Treat it as a lens, not a bet.
Player projections
Median, with the 10th-90th percentile range.
| Player | Team | Role | Projection |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kyler Murray | MIN | QB | pass yds 236 (161-325) · pass TD 1 (0-3) · rush yds 28 (9-56) |
| Aaron Jones | MIN | RUSH/REC | rush yds 110 (57-174) · rec yds 20 (4-47) · catches 3 (1-5) |
| Demond Claiborne | MIN | RUSH | rush yds 0 (0-9) |
| Jordan Addison | MIN | RUSH/REC | rush yds 0 (0-8) · rec yds 45 (12-93) · catches 4 (2-6) |
| Justin Jefferson | MIN | RUSH/REC | rush yds 0 (0-5) · rec yds 64 (25-122) · catches 5 (3-8) |
| T.J. Hockenson | MIN | REC | rec yds 39 (13-79.1) · catches 4 (2-7) |
| Jauan Jennings | MIN | REC | rec yds 32 (6-74) · catches 3 (1-5) |
| Tai Felton | MIN | REC | rec yds 0 (0-19) · catches 0 (0-1) |
| Gavin Bartholomew | MIN | REC | rec yds 0 (0-15) · catches 0 (0-1) |
| Myles Price | MIN | REC | rec yds 0 (0-14) · catches 0 (0-1) |
| Ben Yurosek | MIN | REC | rec yds 0 (0-11) · catches 0 (0-1) |
| Daniel Jones | IND | QB | pass yds 191 (120-278) · pass TD 1 (0-2) · rush yds 14 (1-36.1) |
| Jonathan Taylor | IND | RUSH/REC | rush yds 62 (26-117) · rec yds 23 (3-56) · catches 3 (1-5) |
| DJ Giddens | IND | RUSH | rush yds 2 (0-13) |
| Seth McGowan | IND | RUSH | rush yds 1 (0-11) |
| Ashton Dulin | IND | RUSH/REC | rush yds 0 (0-5) · rec yds 0 (0-31) · catches 1 (0-2) |
| Keenan Allen | IND | REC | rec yds 44 (15-87) · catches 5 (2-8) |
| Josh Downs | IND | REC | rec yds 45 (14-92) · catches 5 (2-8) |
| Mo Alie-Cox | IND | REC | rec yds 10 (0-36) · catches 1 (0-3) |
| Laquon Treadwell | IND | REC | rec yds 7 (0-36) · catches 1 (0-2) |
| Will Mallory | IND | REC | rec yds 8 (0-33) · catches 1 (0-3) |
| Andrew Ogletree | IND | REC | rec yds 6 (0-29.1) · catches 1 (0-2) |
| Pharaoh Brown | IND | REC | rec yds 6 (0-28) · catches 1 (0-2) |