KC @ SEA
Kickoff 5:20 PM PT · Draft Kings lines · 5,000 sims · win chance for KC
NFL backtest: the books beat this sim on every period. Read it as context, not a bet. Details
Out: Brashard Smith, Jaylon Moore, Rashee Rice, Josh Simmons, Cooper McDonald, Tyquan Thornton, Anthony Bradford, Chazz Surratt, Drake Thomas, Elijah Arroyo, Zach Charbonnet
How the sim saw it
The sim has the Chiefs winning 51.0% of 5,000 games, against 43% from the books. The median score is Seahawks 20, Chiefs 20. In the most typical game: At the half: Seahawks 17, Chiefs 6. Biggest leads: Seahawks by 14, Chiefs by 3. Q4: Patrick Mahomes to Xavier Worthy, 15 yards for the longest score of the day. Turnovers: Chiefs 2, Seahawks 1. 1 lead changes. Final: Chiefs 20-20.
The Seahawks win 2,421 of the 5,000. Their chances rise when Sam Darnold throws for 284+ (they win 64%), with no interceptions (61%) or when they run for 130+ (78%). The Seahawks cover -3 in 42% and the game goes over 42.5 in 42%. Typical lines: Patrick Mahomes: 210 passing yards, 20 rushing yards; Sam Darnold: 226 passing yards; Travis Kelce: 7.6 catches for 70 yards; Jaxon Smith-Njigba: 7.2 catches for 83 yards.
Full breakdown
Last time they met (2026 week 7), the Seahawks won 20-3 in Seattle.
The Seahawks are 4-3 this season.
The Chiefs are 5-1 this season.
Out tonight, starters only: Jaylon Moore, Rashee Rice, Tyquan Thornton, Anthony Bradford, Drake Thomas.
Who's in the sim:
SEA: QB Sam Darnold
Targets: Smith-Njigba 32%, Kupp 19%, Shaheed 16%, Barner 13%
Carries: Wilson 16, Holani 5
KC: QB Patrick Mahomes
Targets: Kelce 31%, Worthy 26%, Walker 15%, Gray 15%
Carries: Walker 22, Johnson 1
Flagged: Emanuel Wilson (new to the team, role scaled to 90%); Kenneth Walker III (new to the team, role scaled to 90%)
Who gets hunted: Patrick Mahomes.
The Chiefs line has given up a sack on 3.3% of dropbacks (30th most). The Seahawks get home on 6.8% (10th most).
Down the field, the Chiefs allow 36.0% completions on throws of 20+ air yards (15th most in the league).
The matchup: how each team moves the ball.
The Seahawks: run-leaning on early downs (26th in pass rate over expected), 6.8 yards per dropback (11th), 3.7 per carry (22nd). The Chiefs defense: 14th against the pass, 3rd against the run.
The Chiefs: pass-leaning on early downs (6th in pass rate over expected), 7.2 yards per dropback (6th), 5.5 per carry (1st). The Seahawks defense: 1st against the pass, 2nd against the run.
The Chiefs engine: screens. 15.7% of their throws (1st most), 4.9 yards per attempt (16th).
The Seahawks rank 16th defending screens (5.0 yards per attempt allowed).
Travis Kelce in one split:
Straight dropbacks: 10.0 yards per target on 25 targets (top 14% of receivers).
The Seahawks rank 1st against straight dropbacks.
Where the Seahawks hit back:
- The Chiefs are 15th worst defending deep shots (36.0% completed). Jaxon Smith-Njigba sees the most of those targets.
- The Chiefs are 17th worst defending play-action (8.3 yards per attempt). Jaxon Smith-Njigba sees the most of those targets.
One check against real life:
Patrick Mahomes threw for 165 yards in the last meeting. In our 5,000 sims: 214.
Travis Kelce caught 4 for 44. The sims: 7.6 for 73.
Sam Darnold threw for 257 yards in the last meeting. In our 5,000 sims: 230.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba caught 9 for 150. The sims: 7.2 for 88.
Things you'll notice in the sim:
- At the half: Seahawks 17, Chiefs 6
- Biggest leads: Seahawks by 14, Chiefs by 3
- Q4: Patrick Mahomes to Xavier Worthy, 15 yards for the longest score of the day
- Turnovers: Chiefs 2, Seahawks 1
- 1 lead changes. Final: Chiefs 20-20
How the Seahawks win (2,421 of the 5,000):
- Sam Darnold throws for 284+: then they win 64%
- No interceptions: 61%, vs 40% with one or more
- 130+ rushing yards: 78%
Across all 5,000 sims:
The Chiefs win 51.0%. The books (Draft Kings) have them at 43%.
Median score: Seahawks 20, Chiefs 20
The Seahawks cover -3 in 42%
Over 42.5 in 42%
Typical lines:
- Patrick Mahomes: 210 passing yards, 20 rushing yards
- Sam Darnold: 226 passing yards
- Travis Kelce: 7.6 catches for 70 yards
- Jaxon Smith-Njigba: 7.2 catches for 83 yards
Fine print: one game isn't a prediction. The percentages are the signal.
Our own backtest (2024-26): out of sample the books beat this sim on winners (log-loss 0.653 vs 0.625), and no spread or total rule made money. Treat it as a lens, not a bet.
Player projections
Median, with the 10th-90th percentile range.
| Player | Team | Role | Projection |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Darnold | SEA | QB | pass yds 226.5 (150-313) · pass TD 1 (0-3) · rush yds 9 (0-29) |
| Emanuel Wilson | SEA | RUSH/REC | rush yds 50 (19-95) · rec yds 3 (0-22) · catches 1 (0-2) |
| George Holani | SEA | RUSH/REC | rush yds 12 (0-34) · rec yds 4 (0-22) · catches 1 (0-2) |
| Velus Jones Jr. | SEA | RUSH/REC | rush yds 6 (0-22) · rec yds 0 (0-12) · catches 0 (0-1) |
| Rashid Shaheed | SEA | RUSH/REC | rush yds 4 (0-17) · rec yds 30 (5-72) · catches 3 (1-5) |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | SEA | REC | rec yds 83 (37-146) · catches 7 (4-10) |
| Cooper Kupp | SEA | REC | rec yds 35 (10-77) · catches 4 (2-6) |
| AJ Barner | SEA | REC | rec yds 24 (5-56) · catches 3 (1-5) |
| Tory Horton | SEA | REC | rec yds 7 (0-33) · catches 1 (0-3) |
| Eric Saubert | SEA | REC | rec yds 4 (0-22) · catches 1 (0-2) |
| Patrick Mahomes | KC | QB | pass yds 210 (140-292) · pass TD 1 (0-2) · rush yds 20 (4-45) |
| Kenneth Walker III | KC | RUSH/REC | rush yds 84 (42-145) · rec yds 27 (7-59) · catches 4 (2-7) |
| Emmett Johnson | KC | RUSH/REC | rush yds 2 (-1-13) · rec yds 0 (0-21) · catches 0 (0-2) |
| Xavier Worthy | KC | RUSH/REC | rush yds 1 (0-11) · rec yds 50 (17-97) · catches 5 (3-9) |
| Nikko Remigio | KC | RUSH/REC | rush yds 0 (0-2) · rec yds 0 (0-20) · catches 0 (0-1) |
| Travis Kelce | KC | REC | rec yds 69.5 (31-122) · catches 7 (4-11) |
| Noah Gray | KC | REC | rec yds 26 (6-59) · catches 3 (1-6) |
| Jalen Royals | KC | REC | rec yds 3 (0-20) · catches 1 (0-2) |
| Cyrus Allen | KC | REC | rec yds 0 (0-13) · catches 0 (0-1) |
| Jared Wiley | KC | REC | rec yds 0 (0-9) · catches 0 (0-1) |