NYG @ HOU

Last time they met (2026 week 7), the Giants won 27-21 in Houston.

The Texans are 2-5 this season.

The Giants are 4-3 this season.

Out tonight, starters only: Jalen Pitre, Reed Blankenship, Tremaine Edmunds, Greg Newsome II, Paulson Adebo.

Who's in the sim:

HOU: QB C.J. Stroud

Targets: Collins 22%, Schultz 17%, Harrison 13%, Hutchinson 12%

Carries: Marks 23, Ogunbowale 3

NYG: QB J.J. McCarthy

Targets: Nabers 30%, Likely 18%, Mooney 16%, Tracy 11%

Carries: Tracy 8, Skattebo 7

Flagged: Marvin Harrison Jr. (new to the team, role scaled to 90%); Kayshon Boutte (new to the team, role scaled to 90%); Foster Moreau (new to the team, role scaled to 90%); Isaiah Likely (new to the team, role scaled to 90%); Darnell Mooney (new to the team, role scaled to 90%); Charlie Jones (new to the team, role scaled to 90%); Patrick Ricard (new to the team, role scaled to 90%); J.J. McCarthy (new to the team, role scaled to 90%)

Who gets hunted: J.J. McCarthy.

The Giants line has given up a sack on 7.9% of dropbacks (7th most). The Texans get home on 7.7% (4th most).

Down the field, the Texans allow 41.4% completions on throws of 20+ air yards (11th most in the league).

The matchup: how each team moves the ball.

The Texans: run-leaning on early downs (15th in pass rate over expected), 6.9 yards per dropback (9th), 3.4 per carry (28th). The Giants defense: 13th against the pass, 25th against the run.

The Giants: run-leaning on early downs (25th in pass rate over expected), 6.4 yards per dropback (17th), 4.0 per carry (15th). The Texans defense: 18th against the pass, 11th against the run.

The Texans engine: play-action. 18.9% of their throws (15th most), 8.4 yards per attempt (13th).

The Giants rank 10th defending play-action (7.2 yards per attempt allowed).

Nico Collins in one split:

Straight dropbacks: 9.2 yards per target on 27 targets (top 24% of receivers).

The Giants rank 6th against straight dropbacks.

Where the Giants hit back:

• The Texans are 11th worst defending deep shots (41.4% completed). Malik Nabers sees the most of those targets.
• The Texans are 19th worst defending play-action (7.9 yards per attempt). Isaiah Likely sees the most of those targets.

One check against real life:

C.J. Stroud threw for 153 yards in the last meeting. In our 5,000 sims: 241.

Nico Collins caught 2 for 6. The sims: 4.5 for 61.

J.J. McCarthy threw for 252 yards in the last meeting. In our 5,000 sims: 204.

Malik Nabers caught 7 for 111. The sims: 5.4 for 62.

Things you'll notice in the sim:

• At the half: Texans 20, Giants 8
• Biggest leads: Texans by 17, Giants by 0
• Q1: C.J. Stroud to Marvin Harrison Jr., 8 yards for the longest score of the day
• Turnovers: Giants 1, Texans 1
• 0 lead changes. Final: Texans 26-15

How the Giants win (1,057 of the 5,000):

• J.J. McCarthy throws for 257+: then they win 36%
• No interceptions: 31%, vs 17% with one or more
• 121+ rushing yards: 44%

Across all 5,000 sims:

The Texans win 78.6%. The books (Draft Kings) have them at 80%.

Median score: Texans 26, Giants 14

The Texans cover -10 in 54%

Over 42.5 in 45%

Typical lines:

• C.J. Stroud: 238 passing yards, 17 rushing yards
• J.J. McCarthy: 200 passing yards, 15 rushing yards
• Nico Collins: 4.5 catches for 56 yards
• Malik Nabers: 5.4 catches for 57 yards

Fine print: one game isn't a prediction. The percentages are the signal.

Our own backtest (2024-26): out of sample the books beat this sim on winners (log-loss 0.653 vs 0.625), and no spread or total rule made money. Treat it as a lens, not a bet.