PIT @ NO
Kickoff 6:30 AM PT · Draft Kings lines · 5,000 sims · win chance for PIT
NFL backtest: the books beat this sim on every period. Read it as context, not a bet. Details
Out: Jordyn Tyson, Brandin Echols, Sebastian Joseph-Day, Ben Skowronek
How the sim saw it
The sim has the Steelers winning 54.0% of 5,000 games, against 59% from the books. The median score is Saints 20, Steelers 21. In the most typical game: At the half: Saints 7, Steelers 8. Biggest leads: Saints by 5, Steelers by 6. Q3: Jaylen Warren runs for 30 for the longest score of the day. 6 lead changes. Final: Steelers 22-20.
The Saints win 2,281 of the 5,000. Their chances rise when Tyler Shough throws for 285+ (they win 61%), with no interceptions (56%) or when they run for 144+ (77%). The Steelers cover -3 in 47% and the game goes over 44.5 in 43%. Typical lines: Aaron Rodgers: 233 passing yards; Tyler Shough: 231 passing yards; DK Metcalf: 5.9 catches for 68 yards; Chris Olave: 6.3 catches for 70 yards.
Full breakdown
Last time they met (2026 week 7), the Steelers won 16-10 in New Orleans.
The Saints are 2-5 this season.
The Steelers are 5-2 this season.
Who's in the sim:
NO: QB Tyler Shough
Targets: Olave 29%, Johnson 19%, Vele 16%, Kamara 15%
Carries: Kamara 15, Miller 8
PIT: QB Aaron Rodgers
Targets: Metcalf 30%, Freiermuth 18%, Warren 16%, Washington 13%
Carries: Warren 14, Dowdle 10
Flagged: Noah Fant (new to the team, role scaled to 90%); Rico Dowdle (questionable, role scaled to 70%); Robert Tonyan (new to the team, role scaled to 90%); Travis Homer (new to the team, role scaled to 90%)
Who gets hunted: Aaron Rodgers.
The Steelers line has given up a sack on 7.6% of dropbacks (8th most). The Saints get home on 7.0% (9th most).
Down the field, the Saints allow 59.1% completions on throws of 20+ air yards (1st most in the league).
The matchup: how each team moves the ball.
The Saints: pass-leaning on early downs (11th in pass rate over expected), 5.8 yards per dropback (23rd), 3.2 per carry (31st). The Steelers defense: 12th against the pass, 4th against the run.
The Steelers: pass-leaning on early downs (4th in pass rate over expected), 5.4 yards per dropback (26th), 5.0 per carry (2nd). The Saints defense: 23rd against the pass, 30th against the run.
The Steelers engine: screens. 12.6% of their throws (3rd most), 4.0 yards per attempt (20th).
The Saints rank 26th defending screens (6.3 yards per attempt allowed).
DK Metcalf in one split:
Straight dropbacks: 6.7 yards per target on 44 targets (bottom 30% of receivers).
The Saints rank 23rd against straight dropbacks.
Where the Saints hit back:
- The Steelers are 2nd worst defending screens (7.6 yards per attempt). Chris Olave sees the most of those targets.
- The Steelers are 11th worst defending deep shots (41.4% completed). Chris Olave sees the most of those targets.
One check against real life:
Aaron Rodgers threw for 212 yards in the last meeting. In our 5,000 sims: 237.
DK Metcalf caught 2 for 56. The sims: 5.9 for 73.
Tyler Shough threw for 278 yards in the last meeting. In our 5,000 sims: 234.
Chris Olave caught 6 for 56. The sims: 6.3 for 75.
Things you'll notice in the sim:
- At the half: Saints 7, Steelers 8
- Biggest leads: Saints by 5, Steelers by 6
- Q3: Jaylen Warren runs for 30 for the longest score of the day
- 6 lead changes. Final: Steelers 22-20
How the Saints win (2,281 of the 5,000):
- Tyler Shough throws for 285+: then they win 61%
- No interceptions: 56%, vs 37% with one or more
- 144+ rushing yards: 77%
Across all 5,000 sims:
The Steelers win 54.0%. The books (Draft Kings) have them at 59%.
Median score: Saints 20, Steelers 21
The Steelers cover -3 in 47%
Over 44.5 in 43%
Typical lines:
- Aaron Rodgers: 233 passing yards
- Tyler Shough: 231 passing yards
- DK Metcalf: 5.9 catches for 68 yards
- Chris Olave: 6.3 catches for 70 yards
Fine print: one game isn't a prediction. The percentages are the signal.
Our own backtest (2024-26): out of sample the books beat this sim on winners (log-loss 0.653 vs 0.625), and no spread or total rule made money. Treat it as a lens, not a bet.
Player projections
Median, with the 10th-90th percentile range.
| Player | Team | Role | Projection |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Shough | NO | QB | pass yds 231 (156-315) · pass TD 1 (0-3) · rush yds 14 (2-37) |
| Alvin Kamara | NO | RUSH/REC | rush yds 50 (19-95) · rec yds 25 (7-52) · catches 4 (2-7) |
| Kendre Miller | NO | RUSH/REC | rush yds 26 (7-57) · rec yds 5 (0-23) · catches 1 (0-2) |
| CJ Donaldson | NO | RUSH/REC | rush yds 3 (0-15) · rec yds 0 (0-11) · catches 0 (0-1) |
| Barion Brown | NO | RUSH | rush yds 0 (0-3) |
| Chris Olave | NO | REC | rec yds 70 (30-127.1) · catches 6 (3-9) |
| Juwan Johnson | NO | REC | rec yds 45 (15-90) · catches 4 (2-7) |
| Devaughn Vele | NO | REC | rec yds 31 (8-71) · catches 3 (1-6) |
| Noah Fant | NO | REC | rec yds 20 (2.9-51) · catches 2 (1-5) |
| Bryce Lance | NO | REC | rec yds 0 (0-21) · catches 0 (0-2) |
| Oscar Delp | NO | REC | rec yds 0 (0-9) · catches 0 (0-1) |
| Aaron Rodgers | PIT | QB | pass yds 233 (158-317) · pass TD 1 (0-3) · rush yds 3 (0-18) |
| Jaylen Warren | PIT | RUSH/REC | rush yds 56 (25-104) · rec yds 36 (10-74) · catches 4 (2-7) |
| Rico Dowdle | PIT | RUSH/REC | rush yds 33 (11-68) · rec yds 14 (0-39) · catches 2 (1-4) |
| Travis Homer | PIT | RUSH/REC | rush yds 0 (0-8) · rec yds 0 (0-10) · catches 0 (0-1) |
| DK Metcalf | PIT | RUSH/REC | rush yds 0 (0-3) · rec yds 68 (26-126) · catches 6 (3-9) |
| Lew Nichols III | PIT | RUSH | rush yds 0 (0-3) |
| Pat Freiermuth | PIT | REC | rec yds 41 (13-82) · catches 4 (2-7) |
| Darnell Washington | PIT | REC | rec yds 27 (5-64) · catches 3 (1-5) |
| Germie Bernard | PIT | REC | rec yds 15 (0-43.1) · catches 2 (0-4) |
| Robert Tonyan | PIT | REC | rec yds 3 (0-24) · catches 1 (0-2) |