SF @ ATL
Kickoff 10:00 AM PT · Draft Kings lines · 5,000 sims · win chance for ATL
Big disagreement with the books. Usually that means the sim is missing something (a quarterback change, line injuries, news). Check before trusting it.
NFL backtest: the books beat this sim on every period. Read it as context, not a bet. Details
Out: Michael Jerrell, Billy Bowman Jr., A.J. Terrell, Divine Deablo, Beaux Collins, Brian Robinson, Cameron Williams, Garret Wallow, Luke Gifford, Marques Sigle, Nick Bosa, Deebo Samuel Sr., Christian Kirk, Mike Evans
How the sim saw it
The sim has the Falcons winning 58.3% of 5,000 games, against 43% from the books. The median score is Falcons 24, 49ers 21. In the most typical game: At the half: Falcons 16, 49ers 14. Biggest leads: Falcons by 5, 49ers by 12. Q3: Christian McCaffrey runs for 93 for the longest score of the day. 4 lead changes. Final: Falcons 26-21.
The 49ers win 2,058 of the 5,000. Their chances rise when Brock Purdy throws for 296+ (they win 60%), with no interceptions (49%) or when they run for 140+ (72%). The 49ers cover -2.5 in 38% and the game goes over 49.5 in 40%. Typical lines: Michael Penix Jr.: 201 passing yards; Brock Purdy: 239 passing yards, 20 rushing yards; Drake London: 5.4 catches for 61 yards; Christian McCaffrey: 7.6 catches for 58 yards.
Full breakdown
Last time they met (2026 week 7), the Falcons won 29-20 in Atlanta.
The Falcons are 3-4 this season.
The 49ers are 6-1 this season.
Out tonight, starters only: Divine Deablo, Marques Sigle, Nick Bosa, Mike Evans.
Who's in the sim:
ATL: QB Michael Penix Jr.
Targets: London 28%, Pitts 19%, Robinson 18%, Dotson 10%
Carries: Robinson 30, London 0
SF: QB Brock Purdy
Targets: McCaffrey 30%, Kittle 28%, Cooks 16%, Juszczyk 10%
Carries: McCaffrey 18, Black 3
Flagged: Olamide Zaccheaus (questionable, role scaled to 70%); Jahan Dotson (new to the team, role scaled to 90%); Austin Hooper (new to the team, role scaled to 90%); Brandin Cooks (new to the team, role scaled to 90%)
Who gets hunted: Michael Penix Jr..
The Falcons line has given up a sack on 7.1% of dropbacks (10th most). The 49ers get home on 5.6% (20th most).
Down the field, the 49ers allow 30.4% completions on throws of 20+ air yards (21st most in the league).
The matchup: how each team moves the ball.
The Falcons: run-leaning on early downs (28th in pass rate over expected), 6.4 yards per dropback (16th), 4.9 per carry (4th). The 49ers defense: 6th against the pass, 6th against the run.
The 49ers: pass-leaning on early downs (7th in pass rate over expected), 8.0 yards per dropback (2nd), 4.5 per carry (8th). The Falcons defense: 10th against the pass, 19th against the run.
The Falcons engine: screens. 13.5% of their throws (2nd most), 6.7 yards per attempt (8th).
The 49ers rank 10th defending screens (4.2 yards per attempt allowed).
Drake London in one split:
Play-action: 15.8 yards per target on 10 targets (top 11% of receivers).
The 49ers rank 23rd against play-action.
Where the 49ers hit back:
- The Falcons are 8th worst defending play-action (9.0 yards per attempt). George Kittle sees the most of those targets.
- The Falcons are 8th worst defending screens (6.0 yards per attempt). Christian McCaffrey sees the most of those targets.
One check against real life:
Michael Penix Jr. threw for 213 yards in the last meeting. In our 5,000 sims: 205.
Drake London caught 7 for 80. The sims: 5.4 for 67.
Brock Purdy threw for 288 yards in the last meeting. In our 5,000 sims: 242.
Christian McCaffrey caught 6 for 61. The sims: 7.6 for 62.
Things you'll notice in the sim:
- At the half: Falcons 16, 49ers 14
- Biggest leads: Falcons by 5, 49ers by 12
- Q3: Christian McCaffrey runs for 93 for the longest score of the day
- 4 lead changes. Final: Falcons 26-21
How the 49ers win (2,058 of the 5,000):
- Brock Purdy throws for 296+: then they win 60%
- No interceptions: 49%, vs 32% with one or more
- 140+ rushing yards: 72%
Across all 5,000 sims:
The Falcons win 58.3%. The books (Draft Kings) have them at 43%.
Median score: Falcons 24, 49ers 21
The 49ers cover -2.5 in 38%
Over 49.5 in 40%
Typical lines:
- Michael Penix Jr.: 201 passing yards
- Brock Purdy: 239 passing yards, 20 rushing yards
- Drake London: 5.4 catches for 61 yards
- Christian McCaffrey: 7.6 catches for 58 yards
Fine print: one game isn't a prediction. The percentages are the signal.
Our own backtest (2024-26): out of sample the books beat this sim on winners (log-loss 0.653 vs 0.625), and no spread or total rule made money. Treat it as a lens, not a bet.
Player projections
Median, with the 10th-90th percentile range.
| Player | Team | Role | Projection |
|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Penix Jr. | ATL | QB | pass yds 201 (135-280) · pass TD 1 (0-3) · rush yds 7 (0-26) |
| Bijan Robinson | ATL | RUSH/REC | rush yds 145 (84-220) · rec yds 29 (8-63) · catches 4 (2-7) |
| Drake London | ATL | RUSH/REC | rush yds 0 (0-4) · rec yds 61 (23-116) · catches 5 (3-8) |
| Olamide Zaccheaus | ATL | RUSH/REC | rush yds 0 (0-3) · rec yds 9 (0-32) · catches 1 (0-3) |
| Jahan Dotson | ATL | RUSH/REC | rush yds 0 (0-0) · rec yds 15 (0-51) · catches 1 (0-3) |
| Kyle Pitts | ATL | REC | rec yds 37 (10-75) · catches 4 (2-7) |
| Austin Hooper | ATL | REC | rec yds 12 (0-39) · catches 2 (0-4) |
| Charlie Woerner | ATL | REC | rec yds 4 (0-21) · catches 1 (0-2) |
| Zachariah Branch | ATL | REC | rec yds 0 (0-14) · catches 0 (0-2) |
| Chris Blair | ATL | REC | rec yds 0 (0-8) · catches 0 (0-1) |
| Brock Purdy | SF | QB | pass yds 239 (161-326) · pass TD 1 (0-3) · rush yds 20 (4-47) |
| Christian McCaffrey | SF | RUSH/REC | rush yds 64 (27-115) · rec yds 58 (26-101) · catches 7 (4-11) |
| Kaelon Black | SF | RUSH/REC | rush yds 6 (0-22) · rec yds 0 (0-11) · catches 0 (0-1) |
| Jordan James | SF | RUSH | rush yds 0 (0-10) |
| Kyle Juszczyk | SF | RUSH/REC | rush yds 0 (0-4) · rec yds 21.5 (2-54) · catches 2 (1-5) |
| George Kittle | SF | REC | rec yds 80 (37-142) · catches 7 (4-11) |
| Brandin Cooks | SF | REC | rec yds 29 (6-68) · catches 3 (1-5) |
| Luke Farrell | SF | REC | rec yds 10 (0-35) · catches 1 (0-3) |
| Jacob Cowing | SF | REC | rec yds 0 (0-25) · catches 0 (0-2) |
| Jordan Watkins | SF | REC | rec yds 0 (0-23) · catches 0 (0-2) |
| Brayden Willis | SF | REC | rec yds 0 (0-11) · catches 0 (0-1) |